I'm impartial on Jon Lieber...and I'm saying this is a mistake!
You simply do not take an opening day starter from 2006 and put him in the bullpen to start 2007, barring an injury hindering his abilities. Especially when you are replacing him in the rotation with a free agent signing with a far less reputable career. Last year was Lieber's first season over 4.5 ERA in his last 10 years. That's consistency. Add in the fact that he's usually among the league leaders in walks per 9, and you don't simply demote a guy like that to the bullpen in a heartbeat.
Even if the Phillies have given up on Lieber, which looks to be right given their apparent attempt to trade him, they should still showcase him early in the season for trade value. What does it say to other teams when you don't think the guy is good enough to start for you? Adam Eaton is no Cy Young.
Adam Eaton should have gone to the pen. He's injury prone, and new to the team. He should have to earn his stripes. What does this do to team chemistry when guys like Ryan Howard, who has still yet to earn his payday despite his efforts, sees a guy with a spotty past, come in on a huge paycheck, and get handed a starter job over last season's opening day pitcher?
This doesn't bode well for the team. If this was Manual's decision, it proves he's a moron. Though, I doubt it was all him since he loves veterans, especially players he's gotten to know.
Lieber's career ERA is 4.33, certainly good enough to be a 4th/5th starter in the MLB, especially for this team. Unless there is something going on here below the surface, this move is ill-advised in my mind. The Phillies really need to come out of the gates firing. Lieber was pitching well in Spring Training, and this may simply trip this team up and force them to chase the division through the dog days of summer like years past. I'm disappointed to say the least.
Showing posts with label Jon Lieber. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jon Lieber. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
Monday, March 12, 2007
Starting to find relief?
Sorry Pete, we are bringing up the Lieber thing again. I read today that the Phils are now talking about using Lieber or Eaton in the bullpen, since the trade offers for Lieber aren't good. I still think its an injury away from falling into place, but if all our bullpen hopefuls are struggling, this becomes an intriguing, if short term, solution.
The question is: which one? I dont know who has the stuff that is better suited for the bullpen. Lieber is more the workhorse type pitcher, not going to miss starts and going to give you lots of innings. Eaton would be that guy if healthy, although even if they both made 35 starts, I'd wager on Lieber throwing more innings. Lieber gives up more homeruns, but he pitched in the Bank last year as opposed to Eaton in big park San Diego for a few seasons, so it's hard to tell. Neither walks that many guys, and Lieber's walk to strikeout ratio is great.
It isn't a cost issue, because their salaries are about the same. Both have expressed a willingness to do whatever it takes, and to pitch in Philadelphia. But if the Phillies still want to trade Lieber, they probably have to leave him in the rotation. He may pitch well in the pen and show some teams his versitility, but they will sell him as a starter and he will be bought as a starter. Besides, we wouldn't trade him for bullpen help if he was good in the bullpen, unless someone really overwhelmed us with multiple pitchers for Lieber. Eaton, on the other hand, might benefit from the bullpen, if he is as injury prone as I think he is. It hasn't been an endurance issue, but nagging injuries, which might be reduced if he throws fewer pitches per night. Unless you are worried about Lieber's weight, like the whole media seems to be, then maybe not asking him to go out for 7 innings and 110 pitches is for the best.
Probably need a scout to make this call, someone who can evaluate their stuff rather than try to remember what they look like by reading a few superficial stats on the web. What do you think?
The question is: which one? I dont know who has the stuff that is better suited for the bullpen. Lieber is more the workhorse type pitcher, not going to miss starts and going to give you lots of innings. Eaton would be that guy if healthy, although even if they both made 35 starts, I'd wager on Lieber throwing more innings. Lieber gives up more homeruns, but he pitched in the Bank last year as opposed to Eaton in big park San Diego for a few seasons, so it's hard to tell. Neither walks that many guys, and Lieber's walk to strikeout ratio is great.
It isn't a cost issue, because their salaries are about the same. Both have expressed a willingness to do whatever it takes, and to pitch in Philadelphia. But if the Phillies still want to trade Lieber, they probably have to leave him in the rotation. He may pitch well in the pen and show some teams his versitility, but they will sell him as a starter and he will be bought as a starter. Besides, we wouldn't trade him for bullpen help if he was good in the bullpen, unless someone really overwhelmed us with multiple pitchers for Lieber. Eaton, on the other hand, might benefit from the bullpen, if he is as injury prone as I think he is. It hasn't been an endurance issue, but nagging injuries, which might be reduced if he throws fewer pitches per night. Unless you are worried about Lieber's weight, like the whole media seems to be, then maybe not asking him to go out for 7 innings and 110 pitches is for the best.
Probably need a scout to make this call, someone who can evaluate their stuff rather than try to remember what they look like by reading a few superficial stats on the web. What do you think?
Sunday, March 11, 2007
More Spring Training Notes
We are one third of the way through March, even though I am close to completing my first season in MLB '07 "The Show," which, if you were considering buying a baseball game this year, definitely buy The Show over 2k7. The 2k series have always been subpar, and even bringing in one of the top guys from the now retired EA MVP series didn't help. Aside from bad gameplay, it supposedly has a ton of bugs, which include batters occasionally standing backwards in the box. The Show plays well, and a new feature allows you to create a rookie and fight your way onto a minor league and pro team, but only having to play your player's events (ABs, pitching, fielding, etc.), which makes the game go quickly. I'll forgive them for the default roster having Werth start over Victorino.
Back to real baseball:
Greg Dobbs will make the Phillies. He is hitting .500 with 5 home runs (2 of which were in "unofficial" games). Even though I don't believe in the need for a "Lefty" bench player (I think someone that hits righties well, like Coste, does the trick), having a guy like Dobbs who can play multiple positions and give you some pop will help this team. Looking over his stats, he has played 1st, 3rd, but also LF and RF in his short career with the Mariners. He had two errors his rookie season at 3rd, and hasn't made an error in limited opportunities since then. Interestingly, he was drafted twice, but eventually signed as a free agent. He refused to sign after being taken in the 52nd round in 96, and again in the 10th round in 99. Somehow his stock plummeted and the Mariners (the team that drafted him in 96) signed him as a minor league FA in 2001. I don't know the story, but it seems to me like a guy who never got his chance, in the Coste mold, but about 5 years younger.
Ryan Madson is adding a slider. Thank goodness. His curveball was worthless last year. More and more, effective bullpen guys need more than a two pitch arsenal. Madson's fastball-changeup combo is above average, but they lose effectiveness when the hitter can sit on one or the other. You almost always need a pitch with movement to keep the hitters off balance, and hopefully he can hone his new slider to at least put it in the back of hitters' minds and throw it once or twice an inning.
Garcia's fastball is slow and flat. Before we raise the white flag, we need to give this evaluation some time. Last season he lost velocity down the stretch, but that was probably due to pitching the entire postseason and then the World Baseball Classic. As a veteran, he is off the hook for the spring, as long as he gets himself ready. He could go out there and throw one pitch in the same location for 3 innings if he wanted. And it's still early, if his fastball is slow and flat in the last week of spring training, then it's time to worry.
Gavin Floyd is getting rocked, but still being fed fake confidence. Let the White Sox deal with it. We are so relieved to be looking from the outside in right about now. He's giving up a run an inning right this spring (I don't care if some are unearned, the error could be on him for all I know). I don't know what else there is to do for him other than have his Mom manage the team and his Dad be his pitching coach. His ego is more delicate than Eaton's finger. By the way, Gio Gonzalez is scoreless in his first 4 innings pitched.
What to do with Lieber. This isn't a serious question until opening day. Someone, including us, will have another starter injury and will be desperate for a guy who can eat all the donuts in the clubhouse. Worse things have happened than entering the season with 6 starters. As long as someone besides Manuel is making the decisions, I'm OK with it. But were' not raising this issue again until April.
How good does it feel to see the Braves and Marlins lose Starting Pitching. I don't know about you, and maybe I'm sadistic, but I was happy to see Hampton and Josh Johnson both go down for a couple months. Couple that with the Nats only having about one pitcher, and the Mets with 3 guys hanging on by a thread, and we have the best pitching staff in the division by far. I do think we are the team to beat, even with a subpar bullpen.
None of the Rule 5s will make the team. Jim Ed Warden and Alfredo Simon have both been hit pretty hard so far. Unless one of these guys goes on fire to finish the spring, I don't think either are options for an already mainly inexperienced bullpen. The catcher may not have had a chance initially, but acquiring Barajas and Werth completely pushed him out of the picture.
Back to real baseball:
Greg Dobbs will make the Phillies. He is hitting .500 with 5 home runs (2 of which were in "unofficial" games). Even though I don't believe in the need for a "Lefty" bench player (I think someone that hits righties well, like Coste, does the trick), having a guy like Dobbs who can play multiple positions and give you some pop will help this team. Looking over his stats, he has played 1st, 3rd, but also LF and RF in his short career with the Mariners. He had two errors his rookie season at 3rd, and hasn't made an error in limited opportunities since then. Interestingly, he was drafted twice, but eventually signed as a free agent. He refused to sign after being taken in the 52nd round in 96, and again in the 10th round in 99. Somehow his stock plummeted and the Mariners (the team that drafted him in 96) signed him as a minor league FA in 2001. I don't know the story, but it seems to me like a guy who never got his chance, in the Coste mold, but about 5 years younger.
Ryan Madson is adding a slider. Thank goodness. His curveball was worthless last year. More and more, effective bullpen guys need more than a two pitch arsenal. Madson's fastball-changeup combo is above average, but they lose effectiveness when the hitter can sit on one or the other. You almost always need a pitch with movement to keep the hitters off balance, and hopefully he can hone his new slider to at least put it in the back of hitters' minds and throw it once or twice an inning.
Garcia's fastball is slow and flat. Before we raise the white flag, we need to give this evaluation some time. Last season he lost velocity down the stretch, but that was probably due to pitching the entire postseason and then the World Baseball Classic. As a veteran, he is off the hook for the spring, as long as he gets himself ready. He could go out there and throw one pitch in the same location for 3 innings if he wanted. And it's still early, if his fastball is slow and flat in the last week of spring training, then it's time to worry.
Gavin Floyd is getting rocked, but still being fed fake confidence. Let the White Sox deal with it. We are so relieved to be looking from the outside in right about now. He's giving up a run an inning right this spring (I don't care if some are unearned, the error could be on him for all I know). I don't know what else there is to do for him other than have his Mom manage the team and his Dad be his pitching coach. His ego is more delicate than Eaton's finger. By the way, Gio Gonzalez is scoreless in his first 4 innings pitched.
What to do with Lieber. This isn't a serious question until opening day. Someone, including us, will have another starter injury and will be desperate for a guy who can eat all the donuts in the clubhouse. Worse things have happened than entering the season with 6 starters. As long as someone besides Manuel is making the decisions, I'm OK with it. But were' not raising this issue again until April.
How good does it feel to see the Braves and Marlins lose Starting Pitching. I don't know about you, and maybe I'm sadistic, but I was happy to see Hampton and Josh Johnson both go down for a couple months. Couple that with the Nats only having about one pitcher, and the Mets with 3 guys hanging on by a thread, and we have the best pitching staff in the division by far. I do think we are the team to beat, even with a subpar bullpen.
None of the Rule 5s will make the team. Jim Ed Warden and Alfredo Simon have both been hit pretty hard so far. Unless one of these guys goes on fire to finish the spring, I don't think either are options for an already mainly inexperienced bullpen. The catcher may not have had a chance initially, but acquiring Barajas and Werth completely pushed him out of the picture.
Friday, March 2, 2007
Spring Questions
You can keep your pagan sun worshipping - on the Calendar of Jeff, the first day of spring is the first day with a full slate of MLB exhibition games. In 2007, that fell yesterday, March 1 (the Phils lost to Detroit 9-7, and no one cared). It is not as holy a day as the first day of summer or the day pitchers and catchers report, but it is a cause for celebration nonetheless.
We've been pretty quiet during Spring Training so far because, well, there is nothing interesting to talk about. Everyone in Phillies camp is saying and doing the right things - even Mike Schmidt. Without any controversy, any injuries, or any feet inserted into mouths, what are we supposed to talk about? Here are 5 interesting questions to follow during Phillies camp (in no particular order). Although I have no insider knowledge about any of them, this is what I'll be watching for and complaining about for the next month.
1. Whither Jon Lieber?
Probably the biggest question this spring is where Jon Lieber is going. He will pitch for a major league club somewhere in some capacity, and I'm not sure if that is going to be in Philly or not. I can't see any of our 6 starters ending up in the bullpen. Pete has mentioned to me moving Moyer, because he could bounce back into the starting rotation and he throws junk so he can pitch consecutive nights. While that's probably true, he likely won't get enough work doing that. He would have to be used as a mop up guy or a lefty specialist, and end up getting one out per night, and I just don't see that with a guy who throws slower than highway traffic. Myers is a bulldog and could close, but he is a front of the rotation guy.
I see one of two scenarios: 1) Lieber gets dealt during spring training for less than we want back for him, marginally improving the bullpen, or 2) someone on our staff gets a minor injury and Lieber stays around on a 6-man rotation for a month or so, protecting the injured guy and injury prone Hamels and Eaton (or rather, whichever of them wasn't the first one with the injury). Then Lieber gets dealt to some other club with a pitching injury.
2. Who's on 3rd?
More importantly, does it matter? Nunez has the defense, Helms has the power...I lean to Nunez, since we score plenty of runs as it is and could use power on the bench. Of course, that assumes Nunez can manage to raise his average to at least .250.
3. What does the Lieby-less world look like?
I'm actually a Lieberthal fan, but in any case, his era has ended. Ruiz and Barajas are competing for the starting job, but it probably goes to Barajas unless and until he completely struggles. Ruiz will probably catch twice a week anyway. The big question is Chris Coste, who completely deserves a roster spot and can play the corner infield even if he isn't catching. It will be a shame if they don't keep him.
4. Can you throw a 6 seem fastball, and if so, what would it do?
Antonio Alfonseca is going to be our set up man? Really? This bullpen scares me, I'll be honest. If Gordon gets hurt, we have humongous problems. Hopefully he gets injured in a fight with a starter on another club who also happens to have two quality closer candidates, or we have problems.
5. Will Pat Burrell get to play 9 innings?
Burrell has too much talent and too much money to not be given every opportunity to hit 5th, play every day, and play every inning. If you keep taking him out of games when he is already struggling, and his struggles are already in his head, he is just going to put more pressure on himself in the 6th inning when he thinks its his last chance. Give him a shot at playing a full game. Besides, I don't want Werth hitting too often, do you?
One last note: I need to amend my list of offseason bad moves to add the loss of Scott Graham from the broadcasting team. I like him, and it's a shame he is gone, although I won't miss his ice cream commercials. He is a lot of fun as an announcer, whether it's the Phillies or the Big 5. I'll still be putting them in the win column for the Fightin' Phils all season.
We've been pretty quiet during Spring Training so far because, well, there is nothing interesting to talk about. Everyone in Phillies camp is saying and doing the right things - even Mike Schmidt. Without any controversy, any injuries, or any feet inserted into mouths, what are we supposed to talk about? Here are 5 interesting questions to follow during Phillies camp (in no particular order). Although I have no insider knowledge about any of them, this is what I'll be watching for and complaining about for the next month.
1. Whither Jon Lieber?
Probably the biggest question this spring is where Jon Lieber is going. He will pitch for a major league club somewhere in some capacity, and I'm not sure if that is going to be in Philly or not. I can't see any of our 6 starters ending up in the bullpen. Pete has mentioned to me moving Moyer, because he could bounce back into the starting rotation and he throws junk so he can pitch consecutive nights. While that's probably true, he likely won't get enough work doing that. He would have to be used as a mop up guy or a lefty specialist, and end up getting one out per night, and I just don't see that with a guy who throws slower than highway traffic. Myers is a bulldog and could close, but he is a front of the rotation guy.
I see one of two scenarios: 1) Lieber gets dealt during spring training for less than we want back for him, marginally improving the bullpen, or 2) someone on our staff gets a minor injury and Lieber stays around on a 6-man rotation for a month or so, protecting the injured guy and injury prone Hamels and Eaton (or rather, whichever of them wasn't the first one with the injury). Then Lieber gets dealt to some other club with a pitching injury.
2. Who's on 3rd?
More importantly, does it matter? Nunez has the defense, Helms has the power...I lean to Nunez, since we score plenty of runs as it is and could use power on the bench. Of course, that assumes Nunez can manage to raise his average to at least .250.
3. What does the Lieby-less world look like?
I'm actually a Lieberthal fan, but in any case, his era has ended. Ruiz and Barajas are competing for the starting job, but it probably goes to Barajas unless and until he completely struggles. Ruiz will probably catch twice a week anyway. The big question is Chris Coste, who completely deserves a roster spot and can play the corner infield even if he isn't catching. It will be a shame if they don't keep him.
4. Can you throw a 6 seem fastball, and if so, what would it do?
Antonio Alfonseca is going to be our set up man? Really? This bullpen scares me, I'll be honest. If Gordon gets hurt, we have humongous problems. Hopefully he gets injured in a fight with a starter on another club who also happens to have two quality closer candidates, or we have problems.
5. Will Pat Burrell get to play 9 innings?
Burrell has too much talent and too much money to not be given every opportunity to hit 5th, play every day, and play every inning. If you keep taking him out of games when he is already struggling, and his struggles are already in his head, he is just going to put more pressure on himself in the 6th inning when he thinks its his last chance. Give him a shot at playing a full game. Besides, I don't want Werth hitting too often, do you?
One last note: I need to amend my list of offseason bad moves to add the loss of Scott Graham from the broadcasting team. I like him, and it's a shame he is gone, although I won't miss his ice cream commercials. He is a lot of fun as an announcer, whether it's the Phillies or the Big 5. I'll still be putting them in the win column for the Fightin' Phils all season.
Sunday, February 11, 2007
Off Season in Review
Sorry I've been gone for so long - sometimes that long, cold winter really gets to me. But now the sun is still up at 5pm, and we are just four days away from hearing those 4 beautiful words - pitchers and catchers report. That means the first day of spring is just around the corner - the Phils play their first MLB game on March 1 against Detroit. I don't care about your pagan groundhog rituals, your sunworshipping, or the fact that it will probably snow that day - when the Phillies start playing, its Spring. Cue up "Centerfield."
Anyway, although every indication is that Gillick isn't done dealing yet this year, let's take a look at the highlights from the offseason.
Best Moves of the Offseason
1. The Freddy Garcia trade - I don't care that we gave up some pitching potential for one year of a pitcher, this was a great trade and the kind of move we have to make to take it to the next level. Garcia is a top of the rotation winner and will hopefully take some pressure off of Myers (although Myers needs to be the team's ace because he is better than Garcia when he is in shape and throwing fastballs instead of punches).
2. Not giving away Lieber or Rowand - Lieber probably will be traded, and I won't have a problem for that as long as it gets us something good in return. Let's not try the switcheroo where Lieber goes for a decent outfielder and Rowand goes for a reliever - it had better be an All-Star closer who is willing to be the set up man while Gordon's arm stays on his body. Rowand is one of those guys that people who look at stats don't like - he strikes out too much, doesn't walk enough, doesn't have enough power, and isn't fast enough to cover the kind of ground that the A-list centerfielders do. But he plays great defense, fans love him, and players rally around him - he is the kind of guy that championship teams have (see Eckstein, David). And we might need Lieber if we have an injury (which we will).
3. Not signing Alfonso Soriano - yes, Soriano is a beast of a hitter, a base stealing machine, and apparently a pretty good outfielder. He also strikes out 100+ times a year and came with an insane price tag and long term contract that can drown a franchise. He replaces Burrell, and is better, but not enough different to change the make up of the team, except killing us when we sign Howard long term, also. Good non-move there.
Worst Moves of the Offseason
1. Not offering arbitration to Aaron Fultz - what was going to happen, we had to pay $3 million for one year of a reliable reliever? He probably wanted more years and was going to sign elsewhere, so we get a draft pick. If he signs, we get his pitching, which will be pretty solid once again. Don't say I didn't warn you when we make a trade in mid-July for a veteran lefty reliever who makes more money and isn't any more effective than Fultz. Not sure what they were thinking.
2. Signing Adam Eaton - I'll give Gillick the benefit of the doubt in two areas here: a) I thought at the time this was too much money, but it turns out that it is under-market, so good for them, b) I'll assume they didn't know we'd end up with Garcia. I also like the fact that we drafted 3/5 of our starting rotation and 4/8 of our starting lineup (Burrell, Rollins, Howard, Utley). But Eaton isn't that good and you just know he is going to get hurt. I can feel the injury coming, and I put the over-under at June 10.
3. (tie) Signing Wes Helms, Rod Barajas, and Jayson Werth - seriously, Wes Helms, Rod Barajas, and Jayson Werth are going to play for the World Series champions? Whatever. So Taguchi, I guess.
And a special bonus category, Absolute Ridiculous Move Of The Off-Season: $50M for Gary Matthews Jr. Well, maybe the Angels know more than I do, but from here, it looks like no one ever made more off of one catch since Aaron Rowand's plastic surgeon. Matthews hit .313-19-79 last year. Previous career bests were a .275 average, 17 HRs and 55 RBI. The Angels will be his 7th team in 9 years. He is 32. That, my friends, is Absolutely Ridiculous, with a capital A and a capital R.
Anyway, although every indication is that Gillick isn't done dealing yet this year, let's take a look at the highlights from the offseason.
Best Moves of the Offseason
1. The Freddy Garcia trade - I don't care that we gave up some pitching potential for one year of a pitcher, this was a great trade and the kind of move we have to make to take it to the next level. Garcia is a top of the rotation winner and will hopefully take some pressure off of Myers (although Myers needs to be the team's ace because he is better than Garcia when he is in shape and throwing fastballs instead of punches).
2. Not giving away Lieber or Rowand - Lieber probably will be traded, and I won't have a problem for that as long as it gets us something good in return. Let's not try the switcheroo where Lieber goes for a decent outfielder and Rowand goes for a reliever - it had better be an All-Star closer who is willing to be the set up man while Gordon's arm stays on his body. Rowand is one of those guys that people who look at stats don't like - he strikes out too much, doesn't walk enough, doesn't have enough power, and isn't fast enough to cover the kind of ground that the A-list centerfielders do. But he plays great defense, fans love him, and players rally around him - he is the kind of guy that championship teams have (see Eckstein, David). And we might need Lieber if we have an injury (which we will).
3. Not signing Alfonso Soriano - yes, Soriano is a beast of a hitter, a base stealing machine, and apparently a pretty good outfielder. He also strikes out 100+ times a year and came with an insane price tag and long term contract that can drown a franchise. He replaces Burrell, and is better, but not enough different to change the make up of the team, except killing us when we sign Howard long term, also. Good non-move there.
Worst Moves of the Offseason
1. Not offering arbitration to Aaron Fultz - what was going to happen, we had to pay $3 million for one year of a reliable reliever? He probably wanted more years and was going to sign elsewhere, so we get a draft pick. If he signs, we get his pitching, which will be pretty solid once again. Don't say I didn't warn you when we make a trade in mid-July for a veteran lefty reliever who makes more money and isn't any more effective than Fultz. Not sure what they were thinking.
2. Signing Adam Eaton - I'll give Gillick the benefit of the doubt in two areas here: a) I thought at the time this was too much money, but it turns out that it is under-market, so good for them, b) I'll assume they didn't know we'd end up with Garcia. I also like the fact that we drafted 3/5 of our starting rotation and 4/8 of our starting lineup (Burrell, Rollins, Howard, Utley). But Eaton isn't that good and you just know he is going to get hurt. I can feel the injury coming, and I put the over-under at June 10.
3. (tie) Signing Wes Helms, Rod Barajas, and Jayson Werth - seriously, Wes Helms, Rod Barajas, and Jayson Werth are going to play for the World Series champions? Whatever. So Taguchi, I guess.
And a special bonus category, Absolute Ridiculous Move Of The Off-Season: $50M for Gary Matthews Jr. Well, maybe the Angels know more than I do, but from here, it looks like no one ever made more off of one catch since Aaron Rowand's plastic surgeon. Matthews hit .313-19-79 last year. Previous career bests were a .275 average, 17 HRs and 55 RBI. The Angels will be his 7th team in 9 years. He is 32. That, my friends, is Absolutely Ridiculous, with a capital A and a capital R.
Sunday, January 28, 2007
Latest Trade Rumors
Recently, there are stories going around the Hot Stove about the Phils. I'll recap some of the stories and my thoughts.
1. Rowand for Scott Linebrink and a mid level prospect.
Supposedly, the Padres are interested in Rowand and are willing to part with Linebrink. Linebrink is a 30 year old reliever with a 3.12 career ERA (3.57 last season). The knock on him is that he supposedly has only converted 3 of 22 save chances or something, which prompted the author or these rumors to explain that the Phils would demand at least a mid level prospect to go with Linebrink.
2. Lieber for Ryan Church
I don't know if I heard this or made the connection in my head, but if the Phils deal Rowand, then they absolutely need another proven outfielder, and the Nats are shopping Church and in need of pitching. I checked the stats comparing Rowand to Church, and they are eerily close in a lot of categories. They are both the same size (6'1") and nearly the same weight (Rowand at 200 has 10 pounds on Church). They both hit about .270 with 15-20 homeruns and 60 RBI. They are actually only 1 year apart in age (Church is 28 I believe), but Church came into the league 3 years after Rowand, meaning he's not yet into his arbitration years. You would lose defense with Church, but he's still got a little more potential than Rowand at the plate.
3. Lieber for Akinori Otsuka
If the previous deals don't happen, another option would be to use Lieber to get Texas' former closer. Otsuka is 35, and has only pitched 3 seasons in the MLB. He has thrown to a 2.43 ERA (2.11 last season) and has closer experience, closing 32 games for Texas last season.
With the first pair of deals, you are essentially trading Lieber for Linebrink and a prospect, and returning a slightly younger and cheaper version of Aaron Rowand to play right instead of center. While that sounds like an ok deal, I hesitate to trade Rowand for essentially the same type of player, even indirectly. Unless they can get a top 5 closer, I don't think we should trade Lieber and Rowand. Rowand shouldn't be traded unless we can upgrade the outfield.
That leaves the Lieber for Otsuka deal. I don't know how I feel about this one either. At 35, I feel like he'd be a short term fix to our bullpen situation. I'd rather look for a guy right around 30, who we can count on to sure up our pen for at least a few years. And with Jeff Weaver getting 8 Mil for one year with Seattle, I think we may be able to get a better option than Otsuka for Lieber.
These are simply rumors, and we all know that rumors usually get leaked once the potential deal dies, or at least cools.
1. Rowand for Scott Linebrink and a mid level prospect.
Supposedly, the Padres are interested in Rowand and are willing to part with Linebrink. Linebrink is a 30 year old reliever with a 3.12 career ERA (3.57 last season). The knock on him is that he supposedly has only converted 3 of 22 save chances or something, which prompted the author or these rumors to explain that the Phils would demand at least a mid level prospect to go with Linebrink.
2. Lieber for Ryan Church
I don't know if I heard this or made the connection in my head, but if the Phils deal Rowand, then they absolutely need another proven outfielder, and the Nats are shopping Church and in need of pitching. I checked the stats comparing Rowand to Church, and they are eerily close in a lot of categories. They are both the same size (6'1") and nearly the same weight (Rowand at 200 has 10 pounds on Church). They both hit about .270 with 15-20 homeruns and 60 RBI. They are actually only 1 year apart in age (Church is 28 I believe), but Church came into the league 3 years after Rowand, meaning he's not yet into his arbitration years. You would lose defense with Church, but he's still got a little more potential than Rowand at the plate.
3. Lieber for Akinori Otsuka
If the previous deals don't happen, another option would be to use Lieber to get Texas' former closer. Otsuka is 35, and has only pitched 3 seasons in the MLB. He has thrown to a 2.43 ERA (2.11 last season) and has closer experience, closing 32 games for Texas last season.
With the first pair of deals, you are essentially trading Lieber for Linebrink and a prospect, and returning a slightly younger and cheaper version of Aaron Rowand to play right instead of center. While that sounds like an ok deal, I hesitate to trade Rowand for essentially the same type of player, even indirectly. Unless they can get a top 5 closer, I don't think we should trade Lieber and Rowand. Rowand shouldn't be traded unless we can upgrade the outfield.
That leaves the Lieber for Otsuka deal. I don't know how I feel about this one either. At 35, I feel like he'd be a short term fix to our bullpen situation. I'd rather look for a guy right around 30, who we can count on to sure up our pen for at least a few years. And with Jeff Weaver getting 8 Mil for one year with Seattle, I think we may be able to get a better option than Otsuka for Lieber.
These are simply rumors, and we all know that rumors usually get leaked once the potential deal dies, or at least cools.
Wednesday, January 24, 2007
Phillies Notes
Alfonseca finally signed his deal at the conclusion of winter ball (look at the sixth finger!). To recap, it's 380k guarenteed, and 700k if he appears on the roster, with incentives up to 1.1 mil. I will not be confident in this team if he is the 8th inning set up guy. At 34, he's a shell of his former self, and only lasted 19 games last season, being shut down with elbow problems and finally deactivated. After putting up a 1.69 ERA through his first 11 appearances, he finished with a 5.63 ERA. He gave up 8 earned runs in his last 5.1 innings. This move was dubbed a low risk, moderate reward signing. The problem is, it's only low risk if this guy pitches well in spring training and surprises people by making the roster. Right now, he's got the most experience in a young bullpen and is a candidate to be the set up guy to Flash. If he makes the team out of spring training, he should be at least 4th on the depth chart behind Madson, Geary, and hopefully a proven guy we get for Lieber.
Speaking of the bullpen, a minor transaction took place recently as the A's sent Kirk Saarloos to the Reds for a 25 yr old AA closer with a decent stuff and a chance to one day crack a major league bullpen as a set up guy. There were players to be named on both sides of this deal. Saarloos is a 5th starter/bullpen arm with average ground ball producing stuff. He won't blow anyone away, nor has great control, instead relying on the defense, especially up the middle, to make outs for him. Now here's the kicker, he only makes 1.2 mil this year. While Gillick has been stockpiling arms, why didn't he take a chance on Saarloos? Once we trade Lieber, we're going to be relying heavily on guys like Eude Brito if a starter gets injured (see Hamels, Eaton). Saarloos would have been a perfect guy to pitch the 6/7th inning, and provide spot starts for injuries. You can never have enough ground ball pitchers at the Bank, either. Unless they are getting a stud back in the "to be named" portion, couldn't we have traded a guy like, say Ryan Cameron (Who? Exactly. Who is David Schafer, the guy traded for Saarloos? Cameron is our AAA closer who projects as a middle bullpen guy and is ranked 42nd on scout.com's Phillies list.) I'd rather pay Saarloos 1.2 mil than Alfonseca 1.1 mil. But maybe Gillick never got wind of his availability. Who knows.
As anxious as I am for the Phils to trade Lieber, I do not want them to give him away. I trust Gillick to "Stand Pat" and wait for the best offer, even if it takes until spring training. If Clemens burns the Yanks, I'd imagine they would take a flier on Lieber, but they don't have much they'd let go from their pen. I would consider Lieber for Farnsworth and a minor prospect. Farnsworth had good years for the Cubbies in '01, '03, and then in '05 split between Detroit and Atlanta when he amassed 16 saves. That puts him on pace to have a good 07, right? But seriously, I would trust him a lot more than Alfonseca, and I would like Geary and Madson a lot more if they both got knocked down a peg on the pecking order. 
By the way, I figured this out a while back and shared it with Jeff. In a weird twist of fate...when the Phils signed Lieber from the Yanks, they gave up their first round pick in the following draft. Who did the Yankees draft with that pick? CJ Henry, acquired in the Abreu trade. Funny how things work out. Henry is still only 20 (man I feel old) but he's striking out in a quarter of his ABs (call it the Jimmy Rollins effect), though he did hit .253 while at Lakewood. Even more alarming, he makes an error every other game in the field, with 13 in 25 games at Lakewood and 25 errors in 58 games with Charleston before the trade. The Abreu trade was necessary, and while his salary looks a lot better in the exploded market, Gillick couldn't predict that, and at least we aren't paying any of it.
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