Warning: Police Report Potential Baseball Sighting in Philadelphia

Just when you think they are out, they pull you back in! The Phillies, now sporting their first three-game winning streak of the season (let's be honest, first winning streak of the season), are starting to look like a real baseball team. That's three straight days with a solid starting effort, no blown saves, and a little bit of offense. Utley and Victorino have been ginormous over the last 3 games, and Rowand is riding a bit of a hitting streak. Rollins had a phenomenal day yesterday. Hopefully those guys all level off and stay as good as we think they are (or stay hot, that would be fine) and Howard wakes up. Then the offense is back to where we know it should be, and need it to be, and we can get back in this divisional race. Still plenty of Mets and Braves games left!

The purpose of this post is mostly to show that we do say positive things about the Phillies, too. Therefore, I won't mention the team's past experience with scoring 10 runs one day and 1 run the next. We can pitch and moan when they lose, let's just savor the winning streak (which I have now officially jinxed) while it lasts.

Phillies and More

PHILLIES

Jeff and I attended the Phillies/Nationals battle for last place game today. While it's always entertaining to watch guys strike out on 72 mile per hour pitches from the crafty Jamie Moyer, they game was extremely boring to watch. Shane Victorino by the way, should have been so out on his steal attempt, but apparently, Lopez just blew the tag even though the throw was on the base.

Managing mistakes:

Chally didn't make too many boneheaded mistakes in this one. We supported his decision to leave Moyer in for the 8th, and to start the 9th (even at 106 pitches) because the bullpen needed an obvious rest heading into a long stretch of continuous games. He did, however, pinch run for Burrell with Bourn in the 6th inning, way too early in a still close game. An outfield of Bourn, Rowand, and Victorino for the final few innings ranks with the worst in baseball.

I can't remember the last time I felt confident about a win with a 4 run lead in the 9th...something is very wrong with this franchise. It's certainly fair for Moyer to give up a few hits his 4th time through the lineup. But then Gordon apparently wanted to make us sweat it out a little. If the Nats hit the grand slam to win it, Jeff and I were officially giving up on the team. That has been postoned for the time being.

Outfield

The Phillies really need to do something about their outfield situation. Michael Bourn is ready to play in the MLB, and if nothing else, should be playing full time in AAA rather than pinch running for Burrell. In Victorino, Rollins, and Bourn, the Phils have 3 incredibly fast players all with some degree of leadoff potential. Bourn and Victorino both deserve a shot to play center as well. Aaron Rowand needs to be traded soon. I would put him in right for the meantime, except he doesn't have the arm. Ideally, Victorino or Bourn should be traded too, since the team is not designed to lose power in right, especially with Burrell only getting 400 ABs a year.

It's also time to move Rollins down in the lineup. Victorino and Bourn deserve a shot at leadoff, and the way Rollins is hitting I think he would make a great 6 hitter. What this lineup is missing is a pure #2 hitter. Someone who doesn't strike out, who hits to all fields, with gap power. This hitter should either come from right or third the way the team is built. Helms may be that guy at this point in his career, but I think he strikes out too much. Victorino or Bourn may also develop into that guy, but I think if one leads off, the other is best suited for the 8 hole. That would help provide some offsense from our usually stagnant bottom of the lineup.

I don't think this team needs Barajas. I was fine with the signing at the time, but Ruiz has proven his worth. Coste also deserves to be on the team, and Jamarillo provides depth and should take over the backup job at some point next year. There was interest in Barajas this offseason, so I think we should scout any teams with injuries at the position.

Guys to trade:

I hate to put guys on the auction block, and sadly, a lot of these guys haven't drawn interest yet, but I think the team would benefit from addition by subtraction with trading a few of these guys.

• Rod Barajas
• Aaron Rowand
• Abraham Nunez or Danny Sandoval
  
• Chris Roberson
• Jon Lieber
• Tom Gordon
• Jamie Moyer
  

I understand we likely won't get anything for Nunez, Sandoval or Roberson, but I think these subpar players even being options bring down the team. How does Nunez already have 2 starts at third? He's the WORST hitter in the league. The lineup is already struggling. Sandoval is essentially the same player, we don't need both of them for any reason, it's hard to justify keeping one.

It's simply Rowand's time to go. He's in a FA year, and I have a feeling the Phils won't offer him arbitration. Trade him to the highest bidder by the deadline regardless of how the team is doing. Give Bourn some seasoning so he can move into at least a platoon spot next year.

I'm not sold on trading Lieber until Garcia is proven healthy. But either way, Lieber is the reason our opening day starter is in the bullpen, this is inexcusable. Hopefully he pitches well, and someone with a need, see Yankees, will offer us a few low level prospects.

I'm still waiting for Gordon's arm to fall off. I didn't like the risk in the 3 year deal to begin with and thought they should have traded him last season. He's going to become an expensive set up man eventually, and if he's still the team's closer next year, they aren't going anywhere to begin with. Oh why couldn't we have traded for Rafael Soriano?

The team owes it to Moyer to give him one last shot at winning. I like the way he mentors Hamels, and think he is an asset to the team. So trade him to a contender with the understanding that the minute he retires he can come be the pitching coach. This would let one of the younger guys come up and get a head start on pitching in the rotation next year.

NFL PROSPECTS SMOKE WEED

This is news? Come on! Everyone needs to get off of their high horse and stop pretending that marijuana is only used by criminals. How many politicians, police officers, and judges are smoking up right now?

RICKY WILLIAMS

Speaking of drug users, supposedly the Rams are interested in Ricky Williams if he is reinstated. Why don't the Eagles take a run at the guy? He's a low risk, high reward case. I think Andy keeps the distraction to a minimum, and if he makes the team, he's a big back to come in behind Westbrook and bruise some carries up the middle.

All you need to know about the 2007 Phillies

ESPN, as you know from their SportsCenter commercials, is the king of subtle. I think we all know what they are trying to tell us:
Caption for the symbolism impaired: ESPN has had so little occassion to load the Phillies logo for their game scoring summaries, that my computer couldn't figure out how to find that picture.

Apparently Charlie Manuel yelled at a talk radio host (Eskin) "we are going to win" among other profanities. People talk about Lou Pinella's blow ups, but Charlie never shows his frustration like that. I just can't see him yelling "What's our record? 3-9. How'd we ever win 3?" But maybe he should.

Wake me up when we win two in a row.

The First Series

Well, that sucked. The Phillies lose three to the Braves to start the season. Maybe the warmer weather in Florida will help. These games looked just like last season: too many strikeouts, no hitting with runners in scoring position, bullpen blows two leads but is great in the game they needed a bunch of innings. Burrell's strikeouts were just as predictable as always, and he got booed by the few fans who stuck around even though the Phils were down 8-1 and it was snowing. Someone even tossed a beer bottle into the outfield towards the end of Thursday's game. This is why I hate Phillies fans.

And Ryan Howard is PISSED. He is still out there shaking his head playing in the field after striking out. I don't think he will struggle for too long, but I wonder how long it takes for someone to say on ESPN that the Phillies were so smart for waiting on this guy after getting burned on Burrell's contract. Instant wisdom like that is really only a suit and tie away from booing a harmless strikeout in April.

So now Charlie Manuel is back on the hot seat, as if Jimy Williams could possibly say something different if they give him a bigger office. Using Madson was the right move both times, although double-switching for the catcher when you are only carrying 2 catchers is strange...at this point, the players aren't doing it, and they weren't doing it for Bowa either. But it does suck to watch.

The Phils also continue to stockpile arms by acquiring Francisco Rosario from Toronto for cash. Certainly can't hurt.

First Day of Summer

In my calendar, today is the First Day of Summer. You can tell because it's Opening Day. This works much beter with people who talk about hope and beginning anew - that is the stuff of spring, and spring training. Now it is April, and we can start eliminating the Orioles, Nationals, Devil Rays, Royals, Rockies, and Pirates from playoff contention.

Luckily for me living in DC, we are opening against the Braves, which means I get the game on TBS. As I sit here watching the first pitch (fastball, outside corner, strike 1!) of the Phillies' season, here are a few Phillies predictions to put me on the record for 2007.

1. Cole Hamels will not win 15 games. Brett Myers will. Hamels is still a year away, because he will walk too many.

2. Pat Burrell will drive in 100 runs.

3. Ryan Howard will hit 50 home runs.

4. If he isn't your hero yet, Chase Utley will be your hero by the end of the year.

5. I will not have goosebumps. It's going to be a fun year anyway.

Jeff's NL Predictions

NL East
1. Mets
2. Phillies
3. Braves
4. Marlins
5. Nationals
Pedro, Manuel, and deep July pockets make the difference. Both teams have questions, and they were 11 wins apart last year - did the Mets get 5 games worse, and did the Phillies get 5 games better? I don't know that either of those things are true. It will be close, but we'll be on the wrong side.

NL Central
1. Cardinals
2. Brewers
3. Cubs
4. Astros (I'm assuming no Clemens)
5. Reds
6. Pirates
St. Louis has to be dethroned before I take someone else here. They have to be healthier this season, and I think the pitching will still be good. The Brewers move up based on pitching, but Pujols can carry the Cardinals offense, and the Brewers are young. Maybe I'm a sucker, but I think the Cubs are a lot better, and the Astros did not get better by losing Pettite and probably Clemens. This is a tough division to finish and 1-4 could be completely flipped without surprising anyone, unless the Cubs ended up on top, because come on, it's the Cubs.

NL West
1. Dodgers
2. Giants (counting on Bonds to stay out of injuries and indictment)
3. Padres
4. Diamondbacks
5. Rockies
Why do people think Arizona will be good? Their most experienced regular is Eric Byrnes. No one on their team has 100 career home runs. Their closer was demoted last season. Maybe they are this year's 2006 Marlins, but that's probably just wishful thinking. Randy Johnson definitely won't pitch like he did last time he was in Arizona, but I don't think he is done either.

Wild Card - Phils. I smell an August surge again, just not from as far behind this time.

I have lost the ability to look at this season objectively. By picking the Phillies second, I might be downplaying their talent and their upgrade from last year just because I don't want to overhype them with my fandom. But I may also be disrespecting the Marlins' young talent or the Braves' strength and off-season changes. So I can't pick the Phils to win the division....but I'm not sold on a second place team anywhere else. Maybe the Brewers, who lots of people have winning the Central, are good enough to beat up on a weaker division and take the wild card from the teams bruised in NL East battles, but I don't buy it. So I'll take the Phillies to surge late, win the wild card, and run the table in the playoffs.

I mean, I can't pick them to lose to the Mets, right? So screw that, screw objectivity - Philles 4 games to 2 over Detroit in October. I might be wrong, but if someone else wins, what's the fun in being right?

Lieber to the Pen

I'm impartial on Jon Lieber...and I'm saying this is a mistake!

You simply do not take an opening day starter from 2006 and put him in the bullpen to start 2007, barring an injury hindering his abilities. Especially when you are replacing him in the rotation with a free agent signing with a far less reputable career. Last year was Lieber's first season over 4.5 ERA in his last 10 years. That's consistency. Add in the fact that he's usually among the league leaders in walks per 9, and you don't simply demote a guy like that to the bullpen in a heartbeat.

Even if the Phillies have given up on Lieber, which looks to be right given their apparent attempt to trade him, they should still showcase him early in the season for trade value. What does it say to other teams when you don't think the guy is good enough to start for you? Adam Eaton is no Cy Young.

Adam Eaton should have gone to the pen. He's injury prone, and new to the team. He should have to earn his stripes. What does this do to team chemistry when guys like Ryan Howard, who has still yet to earn his payday despite his efforts, sees a guy with a spotty past, come in on a huge paycheck, and get handed a starter job over last season's opening day pitcher?

This doesn't bode well for the team. If this was Manual's decision, it proves he's a moron. Though, I doubt it was all him since he loves veterans, especially players he's gotten to know.

Lieber's career ERA is 4.33, certainly good enough to be a 4th/5th starter in the MLB, especially for this team. Unless there is something going on here below the surface, this move is ill-advised in my mind. The Phillies really need to come out of the gates firing. Lieber was pitching well in Spring Training, and this may simply trip this team up and force them to chase the division through the dog days of summer like years past. I'm disappointed to say the least.

The Pitcher's Effect on a Teams' Phyche

Pitchers

As we all sit back and watch Gavin Floyd continue his self implosion, I caught a headline today that not only is Mark Prior not going to make the Cubs rotation, but Kerry Wood is having arm problems again. I started thinking, starting pitchers may only play every fifth day, but they can have a potentially huge effect on the team.

Gavin Floyd dragged down the Phillies for the last several years. It was just his woeful starts in the majors, it was the team longing for what should have been. When a pitcher was struggling, everyone wanted Floyd called up, and wished him the best. But after he kept tormenting us with his inconsistency, we would curse him out, until he showed promise again. The vicious cycle is over. Gavin Floyd was never going to find his niche in Philadelphia, not after the ride he took us on. yet he would probably have remained an outside shot at the rotation every year and a the first guy called from the minors for spot starts. He wouldn't be the worst guy to fill that role, it simply isn't enough from a first round pick.

Mark Prior and Kerry Wood have destroyed the Cubs in similar fashion. You couldn't trade you first born child for either of these guys a few years ago. They came into the majors on blazing fastballs and were supposed to lock down the Cubs rotation for years. Instead, they have the rotation locked up. They come into camp every year with promise, but end up on the DL, leaving the Cubs with more holes to fill. It would literally be better if they just didn't show up in the first place. No one would get their hopes up, therefore eliminating the disappointment and scrambling to find replacements.

On the same token, a true "ace" can do so much more for a team than pitch every fifth day. A guy that proves that he can rise to the occasion and win a big game when he has to or stop a losing streak will also put his team at ease. He may cut the tension that mounts after a few losses, and literally get the team to rally around him just based on the confidence they have in his abilities. The same can be said for a lights out closer. Up by a run or two late in a game, with a shaky bullpen, the hitters will still be pressing to score more runs leading to unproductive atbats. Knowing that the game is all but over makes insurance runs a bonus, not a premium, which ultimately helps the offense relax and puts the pressure on the other teams' pitcher and batters.

Another example can be seen with Eric Gagne. After three straight dominating seasons as LA's closer, Gagne was lost for the year early in 2005. The Dodgers dropped from 1st in their division in 2004 to last in 2005. They rallied in 2006 after losing Gagne again, no doubt more mentally prepared and with a deeper bullpen the second time around. They needed to let him go in order to move on as a team.

What does this all mean? I think getting rid of Floyd will do wonders for the psyche of the team, nearly to the tune of shipping out Abreu. Let the rookies and seasoned guys like Brito provide spot starts and push the incumbent starters. That's what's supposed to happen. But 23/24 year old #1 picks aren't supposed to give you questions, they are supposed to provide answers. Well Gavin, the gig is up. How much longer can Ken Williams feed the media the BS confidence before you find yourself in AAA again with no hopes of getting back to the majors.

Cheaters

Oh, and I HATE Gary Matthews Jr. Can anyone say Brady Anderson? The guy is little better than an average back up his whole career...then in his 30s, he all of the sudden turns into an all star caliber player, doing things his body simply wasn't capable of before? The gig is up on you, too, Gary. After two weeks of self denial, everyone can see through your BS comments. Man up for once, admit you wanted the money and the spotlight, so you cheated. Retire from baseball with the dignity that you were at least honest with yourself. And give the Angels back the outrageously stupid contract they awarded you.

More Spring Training Notes

We are one third of the way through March, even though I am close to completing my first season in MLB '07 "The Show," which, if you were considering buying a baseball game this year, definitely buy The Show over 2k7. The 2k series have always been subpar, and even bringing in one of the top guys from the now retired EA MVP series didn't help. Aside from bad gameplay, it supposedly has a ton of bugs, which include batters occasionally standing backwards in the box. The Show plays well, and a new feature allows you to create a rookie and fight your way onto a minor league and pro team, but only having to play your player's events (ABs, pitching, fielding, etc.), which makes the game go quickly. I'll forgive them for the default roster having Werth start over Victorino.

Back to real baseball:

Greg Dobbs will make the Phillies. He is hitting .500 with 5 home runs (2 of which were in "unofficial" games). Even though I don't believe in the need for a "Lefty" bench player (I think someone that hits righties well, like Coste, does the trick), having a guy like Dobbs who can play multiple positions and give you some pop will help this team. Looking over his stats, he has played 1st, 3rd, but also LF and RF in his short career with the Mariners. He had two errors his rookie season at 3rd, and hasn't made an error in limited opportunities since then. Interestingly, he was drafted twice, but eventually signed as a free agent. He refused to sign after being taken in the 52nd round in 96, and again in the 10th round in 99. Somehow his stock plummeted and the Mariners (the team that drafted him in 96) signed him as a minor league FA in 2001. I don't know the story, but it seems to me like a guy who never got his chance, in the Coste mold, but about 5 years younger.

Ryan Madson is adding a slider. Thank goodness. His curveball was worthless last year. More and more, effective bullpen guys need more than a two pitch arsenal. Madson's fastball-changeup combo is above average, but they lose effectiveness when the hitter can sit on one or the other. You almost always need a pitch with movement to keep the hitters off balance, and hopefully he can hone his new slider to at least put it in the back of hitters' minds and throw it once or twice an inning.

Garcia's fastball is slow and flat. Before we raise the white flag, we need to give this evaluation some time. Last season he lost velocity down the stretch, but that was probably due to pitching the entire postseason and then the World Baseball Classic. As a veteran, he is off the hook for the spring, as long as he gets himself ready. He could go out there and throw one pitch in the same location for 3 innings if he wanted. And it's still early, if his fastball is slow and flat in the last week of spring training, then it's time to worry.

Gavin Floyd is getting rocked, but still being fed fake confidence. Let the White Sox deal with it. We are so relieved to be looking from the outside in right about now. He's giving up a run an inning right this spring (I don't care if some are unearned, the error could be on him for all I know). I don't know what else there is to do for him other than have his Mom manage the team and his Dad be his pitching coach. His ego is more delicate than Eaton's finger. By the way, Gio Gonzalez is scoreless in his first 4 innings pitched.

What to do with Lieber. This isn't a serious question until opening day. Someone, including us, will have another starter injury and will be desperate for a guy who can eat all the donuts in the clubhouse. Worse things have happened than entering the season with 6 starters. As long as someone besides Manuel is making the decisions, I'm OK with it. But were' not raising this issue again until April.

How good does it feel to see the Braves and Marlins lose Starting Pitching. I don't know about you, and maybe I'm sadistic, but I was happy to see Hampton and Josh Johnson both go down for a couple months. Couple that with the Nats only having about one pitcher, and the Mets with 3 guys hanging on by a thread, and we have the best pitching staff in the division by far. I do think we are the team to beat, even with a subpar bullpen.

None of the Rule 5s will make the team. Jim Ed Warden and Alfredo Simon have both been hit pretty hard so far. Unless one of these guys goes on fire to finish the spring, I don't think either are options for an already mainly inexperienced bullpen. The catcher may not have had a chance initially, but acquiring Barajas and Werth completely pushed him out of the picture.

Allen Iverson and Bobby Abreu...Two Peas in a Pod?

So the Sixers have turned around their season like the Phillies of '06...following the trade of their superstar...huh? So let me get this straight, Philadelphia franchises do better AFTER they trade away their best player.

The Phillies were 49-54 on the day that they dealt Abreu and Lidle to the Yankees for prospects. They finished the season on a 35-23 tear...narrowly missing the playoffs.

This year's Sixers were 5-18 with Iverson (though he wasn't playing everyday and eventually sent home) and are 19-20 without him, currently only 4 1/2 games out of the pathetic Eastern Conference playoff picture.

While no one can debate the talent of these well respected players (except for Abreu's offensive Gold Glove), their respective eras in this city were similarly over. It is nearly impossible for a franchise to change their losing ways while maintaining the same personnel, especially the face of the franchise. Iverson's 11 seasons here, highlighted by the Finals loss to the Lakers, had simply run their course. The team could not get any better with him as their leader, and he could never play a supporting role (nor would it have been right). The strange thing is, if the Sixers somehow climb into the playoffs, riding their current 6 game winning streak, they still may end up with a lottery pick, as Denver is struggling right now, only 1 1/2 games ahead of 9th place Sacramento. The same could be said about Abreu...a city can only take so many narrow playoff misses before they turn on their superstars.

At season's end, I think that the Sixers miss the playoffs. Aside from getting a shot at the lottery (albeit with much reduced odds than thought a month ago) they maintain their first round pick, which is protected through the lottery and lowest seeded playoff spot to the Warriors from a four-team trade in 2003. The pick has been protected through the top 15 and been delayed for 4 years (passing from Atlanta to Dallas to Golden State), and King finally agreed to buy the pick out for $1 Million. Therefore, the Sixers capturing the 7th playoff spot could be disastrous for the team.

I think Denver pulls it together and makes the playoffs. The team simply cannot play as bad as they are right now. They are young, and sometimes stupid, but I think Iverson puts on some spectacular shows down the stretch. That being said, their pick should fall into the teens. Dallas' pick, of course, will be worthless, and will hopefully be packaged along with either Denver's or the Sixers'. The last pick in the first round is worth less than the top 3 to 5 picks in the 2nd round because the money is guaranteed for the same second tier talent. Plus, this team is already young and would not benefit from 3 rookies (especially since they could no longer take a developing high school player and stash him in the D League).

So another Philadelphia team is seeing a resurgence since trading the face of the franchise. The Flyers are following suit trading half of their veterans, but it's impossible to play any worse so they are expected to rebound slightly. The same thing could happen to the Eagles if they miss the playoffs or McNabb gets hurt again.

Spring Questions

You can keep your pagan sun worshipping - on the Calendar of Jeff, the first day of spring is the first day with a full slate of MLB exhibition games. In 2007, that fell yesterday, March 1 (the Phils lost to Detroit 9-7, and no one cared). It is not as holy a day as the first day of summer or the day pitchers and catchers report, but it is a cause for celebration nonetheless.

We've been pretty quiet during Spring Training so far because, well, there is nothing interesting to talk about. Everyone in Phillies camp is saying and doing the right things - even Mike Schmidt. Without any controversy, any injuries, or any feet inserted into mouths, what are we supposed to talk about? Here are 5 interesting questions to follow during Phillies camp (in no particular order). Although I have no insider knowledge about any of them, this is what I'll be watching for and complaining about for the next month.

1. Whither Jon Lieber?
Probably the biggest question this spring is where Jon Lieber is going. He will pitch for a major league club somewhere in some capacity, and I'm not sure if that is going to be in Philly or not. I can't see any of our 6 starters ending up in the bullpen. Pete has mentioned to me moving Moyer, because he could bounce back into the starting rotation and he throws junk so he can pitch consecutive nights. While that's probably true, he likely won't get enough work doing that. He would have to be used as a mop up guy or a lefty specialist, and end up getting one out per night, and I just don't see that with a guy who throws slower than highway traffic. Myers is a bulldog and could close, but he is a front of the rotation guy.

I see one of two scenarios: 1) Lieber gets dealt during spring training for less than we want back for him, marginally improving the bullpen, or 2) someone on our staff gets a minor injury and Lieber stays around on a 6-man rotation for a month or so, protecting the injured guy and injury prone Hamels and Eaton (or rather, whichever of them wasn't the first one with the injury). Then Lieber gets dealt to some other club with a pitching injury.

2. Who's on 3rd?
More importantly, does it matter? Nunez has the defense, Helms has the power...I lean to Nunez, since we score plenty of runs as it is and could use power on the bench. Of course, that assumes Nunez can manage to raise his average to at least .250.

3. What does the Lieby-less world look like?
I'm actually a Lieberthal fan, but in any case, his era has ended. Ruiz and Barajas are competing for the starting job, but it probably goes to Barajas unless and until he completely struggles. Ruiz will probably catch twice a week anyway. The big question is Chris Coste, who completely deserves a roster spot and can play the corner infield even if he isn't catching. It will be a shame if they don't keep him.

4. Can you throw a 6 seem fastball, and if so, what would it do?
Antonio Alfonseca is going to be our set up man? Really? This bullpen scares me, I'll be honest. If Gordon gets hurt, we have humongous problems. Hopefully he gets injured in a fight with a starter on another club who also happens to have two quality closer candidates, or we have problems.

5. Will Pat Burrell get to play 9 innings?
Burrell has too much talent and too much money to not be given every opportunity to hit 5th, play every day, and play every inning. If you keep taking him out of games when he is already struggling, and his struggles are already in his head, he is just going to put more pressure on himself in the 6th inning when he thinks its his last chance. Give him a shot at playing a full game. Besides, I don't want Werth hitting too often, do you?

One last note: I need to amend my list of offseason bad moves to add the loss of Scott Graham from the broadcasting team. I like him, and it's a shame he is gone, although I won't miss his ice cream commercials. He is a lot of fun as an announcer, whether it's the Phillies or the Big 5. I'll still be putting them in the win column for the Fightin' Phils all season.

Looking Back...the 1997 MLB Amateur Draft

I was thinking about Jeff's comment regarding his preference about keeping Randy Wolf over Jamie Moyer. I decided that since Moyer pitched for us as long as Wolf last season, what about Wolf compared to Adam Eaton, the new old Phillie? I had a feeling they've had similar careers to date, so I did some research. First, the stat lines (click them for bigger font...I can't figure out how to get tables to show up larger):

Wolf

Eaton

As you can see, Wolf has had the slightly more impressive career to date...and he's a lefty. The similarities between the players, however, go past the major league stats.

The facts:

Eaton was drafted in the first round by the Phils in the 1996 draft. Wolf was drafted in 1997 in the second, more on that to follow later.

Aside from similar major league stats, the two had the exact same ERA in the minor leagues, 3.63.

Eaton had more minor league innings (mostly due to rehad stints), and threw to a 30-26 record while Wolf ended his minors career at 20-14.

Both have clearly dealt with injuries in their career, Eaton most recently with his finger, and Wolf with his Tommy John surgery.

Wolf clearly has the rubber arm, throwing over 200 innings 3 times in his career. In Eaton's defense, he did throw 199.1 and 183 in two injury free seasons in San Diego (putting the comment about him never throwing 200 innings in perspective. Wolf threw 210, 206, and 200 even...not exactly blowing away the 200 mark, but reaching it nonetheless).

Both are good hitting pitchers, with almost identical career batting averages. Wolf has the slight edge as a career .194 batter to Eaton's .191.

Their slugging % is nearly identical, with Wolf again the slight leader at .280 to Eaton's .274. This is mostly due to the fact that Wolf has 4 career homers, to Eaton's two.

Wolf is a bit of a freeswinger, though, as Eaton leads the OBP by a huge margin at .270 to .235.

My theory about the Phillies letting Wolf go because they didn't want a pitcher outhitting Nunez over the course of a full season apparently couldn't have been more off with Eaton coming in the door. Maybe they figure he'll be rusty from the AL.

To my surprise, Eaton has actually stolen 5 bases in his career, getting thrown out only once. Wolf has never attempted.

What's this all mean? Well, of course I'd rather have Wolf back. Eaton, however, is nearly as good, when healthy, and the team already has two lefties diminishing the value of Wolf's lefthand (though they probably don't resign Moyer if Wolf stays). So, understanding the health concerns, I'm fine with Eaton as our #4/5. Actually I'm thrilled with it. At the end of the day, he's better and more consistent (even given the injury history) than Ryan Madson and Gavin Floyd, two-fifths of last year's season starting rotation. I understand he was expensive, but if we get two nearly healthy seasons out of him, it has to be considered a positive outcome.

I stand by my word, if we didn't get Eaton and the Garcia trade didn't happen, we would have been in a bidding war for Gil Meche and counting on Lieber not showing up to camp at 280 pounds. I also think we may have had to give up more for Garcia since we clearly would have been getting desperate, and the ChiSox would pitted us against the Mets or someone else. Instead, we had a full rotation already, and realized that they were desperate to get Gio Gonzalez back.

More on the 1997 Draft

Now playing third base for the Philadelphia Phillies: Troy Glaus.

Ok, this obvously isn't true. But do you know when Troy was drafted? Not just in 1997, but with the third pick overall. Right after we took J "D battery in the face" Drew. Can you imagine if the Phillies drafted and retained Glaus instead of Drew? An infield consisting of 4 All-Stars...with everyone just hitting their prime with Glaus only turning 30 this season. Sure he strikes out a lot and isn't known for his defense, but he averages 37 home runs per year. Ah to dream.

One a related note, I get extremely angry everytime I'm reminded that the Phillies had a trade worked out for Hank Blalock, until John Lieber decided to have his worst outing of the year against the Nats, I believe, right before the trade deadline. Blalock coming off a bad season for an overweight Lieber would have been an incredible heist. There would be no Wes Helms or Abe Nunez to worry about. No worrying about Pat Burrell. Manual could flip flop Burrel and Blalock behind Howard based on who was hot. What a nightmare for opposing pitchers!

Back to the former draft pick, known as schmuck. I thank the heavens that he did not win the World Series last year with the Cardinals. I may have to give up on baseball if he wins a ring before our beloveds do.

More on the 1997 draft, the first player taken, Matt Anderson by the Tigers, is out of baseball after a short career with an ERA over 7, proving that nothing is guarenteed. After Glaus was taken 3rd, his current teammate, Vernon Wells was taken 5, followed by Jon Garland at 10, Lance Berkman at 17, and even Adam Kennedy at 20, all players I'd rather have than our short time with Jason "Fisticuffs" Michaels who was our sandwich pick compensation for the schmuck not signing.

Oddly enough, Jayson Werth was taken with the 22nd pick in the first round...as a catcher. After Wolf was taken at 2 in the 2nd round, Scott Linebrink went at #4, a reliever mentioned in the Lieber and Rowand trade talks. Then, Chase Utley went at #76 overall to the Dodgers...as a shortstop. Utley went to UCLA and was drafted by the Phils in the first round in 2000. The Phils next 2 picks in the 1997 draft never went past A ball, and then in round 5 they drafted Derrick Turnbow, another guy mentioned in trade rumors.

Overall, the draft was a complete bust for the Phillies. They only selected one player who made an impact, and he is no longer with the team. A few better choices would have put this team in the playoffs a few times in the last couple years. It's amazing that an entire draft, with 50 rounds, netted the Phillies one major league baseball players. Thank goodness Arbuckle has learned from that debacle.

P.S.
I am a Flyers fan, but the team apparently did not like my credentials, so they are giving me nothing to write about in the first year of this blog. I guess I have to prove my writing skills before they will win again.

On that note, they beat Detroit tonight for a 6-1 win...a score that would have meant a whole lot between about 1998 and 2003. They are utterly terrible, and not yet even rebuilding, though Forsberg will be traded soon to the highest bidder a la Allen Iverson. They will feel the effects of Bobby Clark's "basher mentality" for a long time, however.

Off Season in Review

Sorry I've been gone for so long - sometimes that long, cold winter really gets to me. But now the sun is still up at 5pm, and we are just four days away from hearing those 4 beautiful words - pitchers and catchers report. That means the first day of spring is just around the corner - the Phils play their first MLB game on March 1 against Detroit. I don't care about your pagan groundhog rituals, your sunworshipping, or the fact that it will probably snow that day - when the Phillies start playing, its Spring. Cue up "Centerfield."

Anyway, although every indication is that Gillick isn't done dealing yet this year, let's take a look at the highlights from the offseason.

Best Moves of the Offseason
1. The Freddy Garcia trade - I don't care that we gave up some pitching potential for one year of a pitcher, this was a great trade and the kind of move we have to make to take it to the next level. Garcia is a top of the rotation winner and will hopefully take some pressure off of Myers (although Myers needs to be the team's ace because he is better than Garcia when he is in shape and throwing fastballs instead of punches).

2. Not giving away Lieber or Rowand - Lieber probably will be traded, and I won't have a problem for that as long as it gets us something good in return. Let's not try the switcheroo where Lieber goes for a decent outfielder and Rowand goes for a reliever - it had better be an All-Star closer who is willing to be the set up man while Gordon's arm stays on his body. Rowand is one of those guys that people who look at stats don't like - he strikes out too much, doesn't walk enough, doesn't have enough power, and isn't fast enough to cover the kind of ground that the A-list centerfielders do. But he plays great defense, fans love him, and players rally around him - he is the kind of guy that championship teams have (see Eckstein, David). And we might need Lieber if we have an injury (which we will).

3. Not signing Alfonso Soriano - yes, Soriano is a beast of a hitter, a base stealing machine, and apparently a pretty good outfielder. He also strikes out 100+ times a year and came with an insane price tag and long term contract that can drown a franchise. He replaces Burrell, and is better, but not enough different to change the make up of the team, except killing us when we sign Howard long term, also. Good non-move there.

Worst Moves of the Offseason
1. Not offering arbitration to Aaron Fultz - what was going to happen, we had to pay $3 million for one year of a reliable reliever? He probably wanted more years and was going to sign elsewhere, so we get a draft pick. If he signs, we get his pitching, which will be pretty solid once again. Don't say I didn't warn you when we make a trade in mid-July for a veteran lefty reliever who makes more money and isn't any more effective than Fultz. Not sure what they were thinking.

2. Signing Adam Eaton - I'll give Gillick the benefit of the doubt in two areas here: a) I thought at the time this was too much money, but it turns out that it is under-market, so good for them, b) I'll assume they didn't know we'd end up with Garcia. I also like the fact that we drafted 3/5 of our starting rotation and 4/8 of our starting lineup (Burrell, Rollins, Howard, Utley). But Eaton isn't that good and you just know he is going to get hurt. I can feel the injury coming, and I put the over-under at June 10.

3. (tie) Signing Wes Helms, Rod Barajas, and Jayson Werth - seriously, Wes Helms, Rod Barajas, and Jayson Werth are going to play for the World Series champions? Whatever. So Taguchi, I guess.

And a special bonus category, Absolute Ridiculous Move Of The Off-Season: $50M for Gary Matthews Jr. Well, maybe the Angels know more than I do, but from here, it looks like no one ever made more off of one catch since Aaron Rowand's plastic surgeon. Matthews hit .313-19-79 last year. Previous career bests were a .275 average, 17 HRs and 55 RBI. The Angels will be his 7th team in 9 years. He is 32. That, my friends, is Absolutely Ridiculous, with a capital A and a capital R.

Random Philly Sports Notes

Just some random recaps from the week:

Spring Training

The Phillies packed up their big rig for Clearwater. This article details exactly what goes to spring training with the team. My favorite:

There were 400 batting helmets on the truck? Four hundred?

"We have them with the [ear] flap on the left, with the flap on the right, and some with double flaps," Sheridan said. "We have them from size 6 7/8 to 8. Howard wears a 7 5/8. Todd Pratt wore an 8. And we have a few extra for Chase."

Sheridan explained that fiery second baseman Chase Utley can be a little hard on helmets.

"He'll go through six or seven a year," Sheridan said. "Somehow they end up having accidents, as he likes to say."

Schmidt and Burrell

Mike Schmidt critized Pat Burrell again, this time throwing Adam Dunn under the bus too, for striking out too much. This article details the interview.

Now I realize Schmidt has reached immortal status where he can say whatever he wants to the media (Curt Schilling is still striving to attain that status), but seriously, come on now, Mike! Critizing players for striking out too much, just like you, and saying they need to have a revelation, at 30, that you're having at 58. There isn't anything wrong with wishing the players well, but it comes off as a pointless scold from a stereotypical senile elder.

I'll ignore Adam Dunn because he doesn't mean anything to me. Schmidt is obviously the far better player than Burrell. Schimdt struck out 127 timees for an average 162 game season in his career to Burrell's 166. Schmidt's highest year exceeds Burrell's (180 to 162), though Burrell has been consisently higher (lowest career total is 130 to Schmidt's 80s towards the end of his career).

I realize Pat was a moron and refused Schimdt's help during his horrible slump year's back, but it seems like this interview was almost done out of spite. If Mike really wanted to help, I think he could have given Pat a call or paid him a visit to discuss things. Then, go to the media afterwards and talk about the chat they had. But, like I said, who am I to criticize Schmidt. Hopefully it doesn't shake Pat too much.

Jeff Garcia

This article pisses me off. Now I'll admit Jeff Garcia didn't pick the headline, and some of his words were most definitely taken out of context, but if Jeff Garcia is even thinking about leaving Philly for a starting role for a bad team, he's a complete and utter fool. The man is not starting QB material, not anymore atleast. He is for a few teams, but that only means that they don't have any talent on the roster. He just came from two bad situations (see Browns, Lions) where he got to start for last place teams. He's not getting any younger, and you would think he would be willing to resign with the Eagles for close to the minimum for another shot at the Super Bowl. Either that, or go start for the Bears since they clearly could have used him.

I also think it's a joke that another article I saw made resigning Garcia a priority saying the Eagles won't go to the Super Bowl without a capable back up behind McNabb. If McNabb doesn't stay healthy for a seaon, the Eagles will never win the Super Bowl during the McNabb era, unless we end up with the Joe Montana, Steve Young combination. McNabb is still the best quarterback on the team, and one of the best in the league. You need a back up to fill in for a couple games, but if he goes down for the season again, we are simply not winning it. The team is not built with enough talent to have a disposable quartback. It was nice that the players rallied around Garcia, but he should not be the QB of this team. Overpaying for a capable backup, such as him, would be a huge mistake this offseason. Let him start for a bad team for an inflated salary and a losing record.

Weird note:

I was looking at the Phillies spring training roster and noticed that Tom Gordon and Jamie Moyer, the team's two oldest players and integral parts of the team's pitching staff, share the same birthday (11/18) exactly five years apart. Combined, they have 83 years of life experience. The same amount as Chase, Jimmy and Ryan Howard combined (whose birthdays are all around the same time as well, 12/17, 11/27, and 11/19 respectively).

Myers signed through '09

The Phillies today signed Brett Myers through 2009 today with a 3 year/$25.75 Million deal.

First off, after Utley's deal, Gillick returned to old form with only a 3 year deal to a pitcher. This move makes sense for a lot of reasons. Myers was arbitration eligible, and he wasn't happy with the Phils offer. He made $3.3 Mil last season, asked for $5.9 and would probably have received just over $5. So take that away from the total and they are essentially paying him $20 over 2 years, or $10 per. With Adam Eaton averaging $8 per, that's not a bad figure.

The Phillies bought out Myers' last two arbitration years and delayed free agency for one more. The only thing I would have liked to see would have been a club option for a 4th year, even if it included a $1 Mil buyout. That's still a relative low risk, considering Myers is only 26, and should only get better.

Regardless, this move keeps their bulldog happy for the next few years and provides an anchor in the rotation (for stability...not the Jon Leiber kind of anchor). This was the perfect move for Gillick and for the Phillies.

Protecting Ryan Howard

Since Pat Gillick apparently can't hire Jack Bauer, it looks like he'll have to find someone else to protect Ryan Howard in 2007. Speaking of Jack Bauer, some of you may know that after someone released Chuck Norris Facts, it was followed up with Jack Bauer Facts. But did you know that someone trumped them both with a list of facts for our very own stud lefty, Cole Hamels Facts?

My favorites:

When Delmon Young heard Cole was promoted to triple-A, he went and got himself suspended.
Cole Hamels only needs two seams to throw a four seam fastball.
Cole Hamels once struck a man out looking. Literally. Cole just gazed at him and the batter was retired on strikes.

Back to Ryan Howard, or actually, Pat Burrell. While everyone focuses on Burrell having a down year offensively (still hitting 29 homers and 95 rbis in limited action), especially his timid numbers with RISP, the case has also already been made that his numbers with RISP were very good two years ago and the kicker, that Burrell hit .423 following a Howard walk. I won't retell that story, you can read one take here.

The question that I want to pose is who will protect Pat Burrell? Pat Burrell led the league in pitches per plate appearance, taking over where Abreu left off. He actually walked more frequently than Ryan Howard last year. Howard walked in 15.5% of his PAs, Burrell in 17%. Burrell also struck out less than Ryan Howard, as Howard struck out in 31.2% of Abs to Burrell’s 28.4%. No I’m clearly not saying Burrell’s a better hitter, but he’s a very good hitter coming off of a sub par year. Power hitters are streaky, and Burrell seems to be an extreme example as he internalizes things and dwells on the negatives. Even while he was having a bad year (by his standards) he still displayed a better eye at the plate than Howard even. That peripheral stat means that 2007 should be a good year and Burrell’s stats will equalize eventually to show what a good hitter he is.

Burrell’s walk rate is actually rather alarming. Concerns about his aggressiveness aside, Burrell does what he should in protecting Howard, he is feared by the opposing team translating into walks. The problem is, the Phillies don’t have someone to protect Burrell. The Phillies used various 6th hole hitters last year, but this year it will appear to be Wes Helms, Aaron Rowand, or Rod Barajas/Carlos Ruiz. If none of these four players are playing well, the other team will continue to walk Burrell regardless of what Howard does. If one of these players has a great season, most likely to get a shot is Helms, then that player will rack up RBIs until teams stop walking Howard and Burrell, which should then increase both of their production.

I recently responded to a comment made by someone on a phillies.scout.com message board saying that the Phillies would be better with Jimmy Rollins protecting Howard. Now, aside from this screwing up the entire lineup, can you imagine the pitcher for the opposing team staring down Ryan Howard, then glancing into the on deck circle to see 5’8” Jimmy Rollins and being intimidated? I didn’t think so. None of the other Phillies can protect Howard. And in my mind, even if we acquired a bona fide power hitter to play 3rd or right, I would put them behind Burrell in the lineup, which would greatly increase his production, making the lineup even more of a terror for opposing pitching. Remember, the Phillies led the NL in runs. They have a fabulous 1-5, one of the best in baseball...it will be the success of batters 6-8 which could put them in a league of their own.

Latest Trade Rumors

Recently, there are stories going around the Hot Stove about the Phils. I'll recap some of the stories and my thoughts.

1. Rowand for Scott Linebrink and a mid level prospect.

Supposedly, the Padres are interested in Rowand and are willing to part with Linebrink. Linebrink is a 30 year old reliever with a 3.12 career ERA (3.57 last season). The knock on him is that he supposedly has only converted 3 of 22 save chances or something, which prompted the author or these rumors to explain that the Phils would demand at least a mid level prospect to go with Linebrink.

2. Lieber for Ryan Church

I don't know if I heard this or made the connection in my head, but if the Phils deal Rowand, then they absolutely need another proven outfielder, and the Nats are shopping Church and in need of pitching. I checked the stats comparing Rowand to Church, and they are eerily close in a lot of categories. They are both the same size (6'1") and nearly the same weight (Rowand at 200 has 10 pounds on Church). They both hit about .270 with 15-20 homeruns and 60 RBI. They are actually only 1 year apart in age (Church is 28 I believe), but Church came into the league 3 years after Rowand, meaning he's not yet into his arbitration years. You would lose defense with Church, but he's still got a little more potential than Rowand at the plate.

3. Lieber for Akinori Otsuka

If the previous deals don't happen, another option would be to use Lieber to get Texas' former closer. Otsuka is 35, and has only pitched 3 seasons in the MLB. He has thrown to a 2.43 ERA (2.11 last season) and has closer experience, closing 32 games for Texas last season.

With the first pair of deals, you are essentially trading Lieber for Linebrink and a prospect, and returning a slightly younger and cheaper version of Aaron Rowand to play right instead of center. While that sounds like an ok deal, I hesitate to trade Rowand for essentially the same type of player, even indirectly. Unless they can get a top 5 closer, I don't think we should trade Lieber and Rowand. Rowand shouldn't be traded unless we can upgrade the outfield.

That leaves the Lieber for Otsuka deal. I don't know how I feel about this one either. At 35, I feel like he'd be a short term fix to our bullpen situation. I'd rather look for a guy right around 30, who we can count on to sure up our pen for at least a few years. And with Jeff Weaver getting 8 Mil for one year with Seattle, I think we may be able to get a better option than Otsuka for Lieber.

These are simply rumors, and we all know that rumors usually get leaked once the potential deal dies, or at least cools.

Phillies Notes

Alfonseca finally signed his deal at the conclusion of winter ball (look at the sixth finger!). To recap, it's 380k guarenteed, and 700k if he appears on the roster, with incentives up to 1.1 mil. I will not be confident in this team if he is the 8th inning set up guy. At 34, he's a shell of his former self, and only lasted 19 games last season, being shut down with elbow problems and finally deactivated. After putting up a 1.69 ERA through his first 11 appearances, he finished with a 5.63 ERA. He gave up 8 earned runs in his last 5.1 innings. This move was dubbed a low risk, moderate reward signing. The problem is, it's only low risk if this guy pitches well in spring training and surprises people by making the roster. Right now, he's got the most experience in a young bullpen and is a candidate to be the set up guy to Flash. If he makes the team out of spring training, he should be at least 4th on the depth chart behind Madson, Geary, and hopefully a proven guy we get for Lieber.

Speaking of the bullpen, a minor transaction took place recently as the A's sent Kirk Saarloos to the Reds for a 25 yr old AA closer with a decent stuff and a chance to one day crack a major league bullpen as a set up guy. There were players to be named on both sides of this deal. Saarloos is a 5th starter/bullpen arm with average ground ball producing stuff. He won't blow anyone away, nor has great control, instead relying on the defense, especially up the middle, to make outs for him. Now here's the kicker, he only makes 1.2 mil this year. While Gillick has been stockpiling arms, why didn't he take a chance on Saarloos? Once we trade Lieber, we're going to be relying heavily on guys like Eude Brito if a starter gets injured (see Hamels, Eaton). Saarloos would have been a perfect guy to pitch the 6/7th inning, and provide spot starts for injuries. You can never have enough ground ball pitchers at the Bank, either. Unless they are getting a stud back in the "to be named" portion, couldn't we have traded a guy like, say Ryan Cameron (Who? Exactly. Who is David Schafer, the guy traded for Saarloos? Cameron is our AAA closer who projects as a middle bullpen guy and is ranked 42nd on scout.com's Phillies list.) I'd rather pay Saarloos 1.2 mil than Alfonseca 1.1 mil. But maybe Gillick never got wind of his availability. Who knows.

As anxious as I am for the Phils to trade Lieber, I do not want them to give him away. I trust Gillick to "Stand Pat" and wait for the best offer, even if it takes until spring training. If Clemens burns the Yanks, I'd imagine they would take a flier on Lieber, but they don't have much they'd let go from their pen. I would consider Lieber for Farnsworth and a minor prospect. Farnsworth had good years for the Cubbies in '01, '03, and then in '05 split between Detroit and Atlanta when he amassed 16 saves. That puts him on pace to have a good 07, right? But seriously, I would trust him a lot more than Alfonseca, and I would like Geary and Madson a lot more if they both got knocked down a peg on the pecking order.

By the way, I figured this out a while back and shared it with Jeff. In a weird twist of fate...when the Phils signed Lieber from the Yanks, they gave up their first round pick in the following draft. Who did the Yankees draft with that pick? CJ Henry, acquired in the Abreu trade. Funny how things work out. Henry is still only 20 (man I feel old) but he's striking out in a quarter of his ABs (call it the Jimmy Rollins effect), though he did hit .253 while at Lakewood. Even more alarming, he makes an error every other game in the field, with 13 in 25 games at Lakewood and 25 errors in 58 games with Charleston before the trade. The Abreu trade was necessary, and while his salary looks a lot better in the exploded market, Gillick couldn't predict that, and at least we aren't paying any of it.

Baseball Economics: Breaking Down Utley's Contract

In response to Jeff's comments regarding his disproval over the backloading of Utley's contract hurting the ability to trade him after his peak years, I decided to mix my finance background and love of sports to do an analysis of the VALUE of Utley's contract.

First off, the Phillies would never trade Chase Utley, Jeff, and prepare for an afterlife in Phillies purgatory for even mentioning that slander. Second, if Chase were to suffer a career ending injury, we have to pay him the money either way, so it wouldn't matter how much of the contract was left.

Now, let's get into the contract as it was originally signed:

Signing Bonus: 2 Mil
2007: 4.5 Mil
2008: 7.5 Mil
2009: 11 Mil
2010: 15 Mil
2011: 15 Mil
2012: 15 Mil
2013: 15 Mil

Total: 85 Mil/7 years

Now, Chase Utley will never actually see that 85 Mil, and not just because of taxes. To illustrate the VALUE of Utley's contract, I'm going to use the compound interest formula to show what Utley's contract will be worth at the receipt of his last paycheck. Then, I'm going to use the Time Value of Money formula to find the value of the contract in today's dollars. I'll compare that to a balanced contract, as Jeff suggested, and also a contract built around paying the highest dollar for "peak" performance, meaning his 29-32 aged years.

Before we start, we're going to throw out the signing bonus, since it will be a constant for all 3 contract types, and simply make extra work. The compound interest formula will calculate the future value of each contract year, by assuming that every penny is invested. It doesn't matter if Chase invests his money or not, this rate will only serve as a constant and will work both ways (when we find the Present value, too). Otherwise, we could just be boring and adjust the future rate for inflation. Anyway, the generally accepted finance rate of return for standard investments is 8% (11% Stock Market historical average - 3% accepted inflation). Here is the formula for compound interest:

Total = Principal x (1+Rate)^years

The first year, for instance, would read:

Total = 4.5 Mil x (1.08)^7
Total = 4.5 Mil x 1.71
Total = 7.71 Mil

So the first year of the contract will be worth 7.71 Mil in 2013. If you do this for each year, raising it to one less year each time (for example, year two would be raised to the 6th power) and add up all of the totals, you get 108.78 Mil.

Next, we find the Present Value of that sum using the Time Value of Money. The Time Value of Money formula states:

Future Value = Present Value x (1+r)^years

The math works as follows:

108.78 Mil = PV x (1.08)^7
108.78 Mil = PV x 1.71
63.61 Mil = Present Value

That means that if Chase's contract was settled in one lump sum today, he would be entitled to a check for almost 64 Mil, not the 85 Mil reported in the contract. The 85 Mil does not represent an actual number that will ever be realized. It's the addition of 7 static payments, at 7 different times (in actuality, the contract will be paid in hundreds, if not thousands of small increments, and may even be deferred with interest until well after his playing years).

Back to the point, though, on to the other contract types. The balanced payment model is actually a lot easier to compute since it represents an annuity and requires only one calculation for the compound interest instead of 7 (a lot of this could actually be simplified into one calculation, but I've taken the long way to illustrate things better). The annuity formula reads:



Now subtracting the signing bonus from the contract gives us 83 Mil. Over 7 years, that's an average of 11.86 Mil per year. So the math reads like this:

Total = 11.86 Mil x [((1.08)^8 - 1)/.08] - 11.86 Mil
Total = 11.86 Mil x [((1.85) - 1)/.08] - 11.86 Mil
Total = 11.86 Mil x [.85/.08] - 11.86 Mil
Total = 11.86 Mil x 10.63 - 11.86 Mil
Total = 126.15 Mil

We use the same Present Value formula from before to get 73.77 Mil. That means that the Phillies would be paying almost 10 Mil more in today's dollars to sign Utley for a balanced contract. So yes, the Phillies may have trouble trading his 15 Mil per season for the final 4 seasons. The net savings of 10 Mil in today's dollars, however, more than offsets any contract they have to eat down the road. In fact, the value of the final year of his contract in today's dollars is 9.5 Mil, which is less than the money they save by backloading it to being with. That means that they essentially get the final year out of him for FREE compared to a balanced contract that was one year shorter. So if worst came to worst and they had to trade him in the offseason before his final year, they could eat his entire remaining 15 Mil in order to net a few prospects, and still turn a small profit over a balanced contract of one year shorter. Or they could trade him with two years left and pay half his salary, while netting out at 0 or a slight profit and get players in return. All of this ignores the fact that given the market, and Utley's natural abilities, he may still be a bargain in 2012 and 2013 at 15 Mil.

I also did one more calculation, just to round out the picture. If the contract was built around his peak years, maybe resembling this:

2007: 7 Mil
2008: 10 Mil
2009: 12 Mil
2010: 15 Mil
2011: 12 Mil
2012: 10 Mil
2013: 7 Mil

It still adds up to 83 Mil (without the signing bonus) over 7 years. The math for this contract gives you a future value of 121.84 Mil and a Present Value of 71.25 Mil. That is a slight improvement over the balanced contract (because you're paying him less early on) but still doesn't compare to the current contract.

So what does this all mean...that the Phillies have some bright accountants who know how to design a contract. Chase also had no bargaining power and couldn't really squabble over details anyway, but he'll get his money and the Phillies will get their man (right after his wife is finished with him, that is).

On a sadder note, Vern Ruhle, former Phillies pitching coach died at 55 from cancer. That's a tragicly young age for anyone to pass. Vern was only with the Phils for a couple tough years, but reports around baseball say he was outgoing and a good man.

Phillies sign Utley through 2013

The Phillies signed Chase Utley to a 7yr/85 Million dollar contract extension. Every Phillie fan in the nation is breathing a sigh of relief, knowing that, barring injury, Chase will be patroling the right side of the infield for the foreseeable future. Yes the Phillies could have settled on a one year deal, or tried their hand in arbitration, but Utley deserved to be rewarded, and Pat Gillick smartly realized that the time was now. With Rollins singed through 2010, the most productive middle infield combination in the history of the National League gives Phils fans reason to cheer for years to come.

Not to diminish Utley's moment in the sun, but I wanted to compare this deal to another current Phillie, Pat Burrell. Everyone remembers (and now disdains) Burrell's long contract extension after he powered his way onto the scene in 2002.

Let's compare the numbers:
Utley


Burrell


While the numbers are similar, Utley has been head and shoulders above Burrell, considering that the power numbers are close, and Utley is not a prototype power hitter. Utley has a slight edge in games played, but the most important factor here
is consistency. Look at the gap between the year before the extension and the career numbers. Utley's career averages were close to his most recent year, suggesting a stable, consistent trend. Burrell's averages were far from his breakout year, hinting that it could have been a fluke, or simply a slight aberration from a streaky player.

There are other factors here that I am overlooking, namely that power hitters are streaky by nature and the fact that Burrell had established himself in college, as one of the greatest collegiate hitters of all time. But if contracts were given on college stats, we would have signed JD Drew. And because power hitters are streaky, maybe that requires a little more time before locking them up long term if they don't find consistency early. Ed Wade chose to hope for the best, and locked Burrell up on a 6 yr/50 Million dollar contract, heavily back loaded, as we are experiencing now.

While you can't predict how Utley will fare for the next few years (same as you couldn't with Burrell), you can control when you give the extension, making sure the player has established himself, so it is less likely that their numbers will regress. Utley has shown consistency for two and a half seasons, as he's established himself as arguably the best second basemen in the league.

And while fans were clamoring for Aramis Ramirez this offseason (who eventually took a reported 'hometown discount' to stay with the Cubs at 5yr/75 Million), I can only say that Utley's deal is not only more important to this franchise (than Aramis to the Cubs), but Utley is a better players, and will make slightly less money per year over a longer term (though it's noted that Utley had no bargaining power as he could not yet test Free Agency). It can be argued that the drop off from the top tier second basemen is greater than the drop off from the top tier third basemen, making Utley's position even more valuable, too.

Regardless, this is a great signing by the Phillies, as Utley has put up incredible numbers, and shown promise and consistency. I can't guarantee, but I would be extremely surprised if we ever heard Utley's deal compared to Pat Burrell's (at least in the light of unrealized expectations) again.