Phillies sign Utley through 2013

The Phillies signed Chase Utley to a 7yr/85 Million dollar contract extension. Every Phillie fan in the nation is breathing a sigh of relief, knowing that, barring injury, Chase will be patroling the right side of the infield for the foreseeable future. Yes the Phillies could have settled on a one year deal, or tried their hand in arbitration, but Utley deserved to be rewarded, and Pat Gillick smartly realized that the time was now. With Rollins singed through 2010, the most productive middle infield combination in the history of the National League gives Phils fans reason to cheer for years to come.

Not to diminish Utley's moment in the sun, but I wanted to compare this deal to another current Phillie, Pat Burrell. Everyone remembers (and now disdains) Burrell's long contract extension after he powered his way onto the scene in 2002.

Let's compare the numbers:
Utley


Burrell


While the numbers are similar, Utley has been head and shoulders above Burrell, considering that the power numbers are close, and Utley is not a prototype power hitter. Utley has a slight edge in games played, but the most important factor here
is consistency. Look at the gap between the year before the extension and the career numbers. Utley's career averages were close to his most recent year, suggesting a stable, consistent trend. Burrell's averages were far from his breakout year, hinting that it could have been a fluke, or simply a slight aberration from a streaky player.

There are other factors here that I am overlooking, namely that power hitters are streaky by nature and the fact that Burrell had established himself in college, as one of the greatest collegiate hitters of all time. But if contracts were given on college stats, we would have signed JD Drew. And because power hitters are streaky, maybe that requires a little more time before locking them up long term if they don't find consistency early. Ed Wade chose to hope for the best, and locked Burrell up on a 6 yr/50 Million dollar contract, heavily back loaded, as we are experiencing now.

While you can't predict how Utley will fare for the next few years (same as you couldn't with Burrell), you can control when you give the extension, making sure the player has established himself, so it is less likely that their numbers will regress. Utley has shown consistency for two and a half seasons, as he's established himself as arguably the best second basemen in the league.

And while fans were clamoring for Aramis Ramirez this offseason (who eventually took a reported 'hometown discount' to stay with the Cubs at 5yr/75 Million), I can only say that Utley's deal is not only more important to this franchise (than Aramis to the Cubs), but Utley is a better players, and will make slightly less money per year over a longer term (though it's noted that Utley had no bargaining power as he could not yet test Free Agency). It can be argued that the drop off from the top tier second basemen is greater than the drop off from the top tier third basemen, making Utley's position even more valuable, too.

Regardless, this is a great signing by the Phillies, as Utley has put up incredible numbers, and shown promise and consistency. I can't guarantee, but I would be extremely surprised if we ever heard Utley's deal compared to Pat Burrell's (at least in the light of unrealized expectations) again.