Sunday, January 28, 2007

Latest Trade Rumors

Recently, there are stories going around the Hot Stove about the Phils. I'll recap some of the stories and my thoughts.

1. Rowand for Scott Linebrink and a mid level prospect.

Supposedly, the Padres are interested in Rowand and are willing to part with Linebrink. Linebrink is a 30 year old reliever with a 3.12 career ERA (3.57 last season). The knock on him is that he supposedly has only converted 3 of 22 save chances or something, which prompted the author or these rumors to explain that the Phils would demand at least a mid level prospect to go with Linebrink.

2. Lieber for Ryan Church

I don't know if I heard this or made the connection in my head, but if the Phils deal Rowand, then they absolutely need another proven outfielder, and the Nats are shopping Church and in need of pitching. I checked the stats comparing Rowand to Church, and they are eerily close in a lot of categories. They are both the same size (6'1") and nearly the same weight (Rowand at 200 has 10 pounds on Church). They both hit about .270 with 15-20 homeruns and 60 RBI. They are actually only 1 year apart in age (Church is 28 I believe), but Church came into the league 3 years after Rowand, meaning he's not yet into his arbitration years. You would lose defense with Church, but he's still got a little more potential than Rowand at the plate.

3. Lieber for Akinori Otsuka

If the previous deals don't happen, another option would be to use Lieber to get Texas' former closer. Otsuka is 35, and has only pitched 3 seasons in the MLB. He has thrown to a 2.43 ERA (2.11 last season) and has closer experience, closing 32 games for Texas last season.

With the first pair of deals, you are essentially trading Lieber for Linebrink and a prospect, and returning a slightly younger and cheaper version of Aaron Rowand to play right instead of center. While that sounds like an ok deal, I hesitate to trade Rowand for essentially the same type of player, even indirectly. Unless they can get a top 5 closer, I don't think we should trade Lieber and Rowand. Rowand shouldn't be traded unless we can upgrade the outfield.

That leaves the Lieber for Otsuka deal. I don't know how I feel about this one either. At 35, I feel like he'd be a short term fix to our bullpen situation. I'd rather look for a guy right around 30, who we can count on to sure up our pen for at least a few years. And with Jeff Weaver getting 8 Mil for one year with Seattle, I think we may be able to get a better option than Otsuka for Lieber.

These are simply rumors, and we all know that rumors usually get leaked once the potential deal dies, or at least cools.

3 comments:

Skeeter said...

I'd take Otsuka. Lieber, in my opinion, isn't going to get us much even in this pitching starved market. I am not looking for to much to come out from Lieber, so anything positive in the short term seems fine with me.

And what the hell is up with Weaver getting 8 mil. Jesus Christ...two good playoff games and your a multi-millionaire.

GM-Carson said...

I'd absolutely love a Rowand for Linebrink, and then Lieber for Church scenario. Move Victorino to CF, and allow Church and Werth to platoon in RF...sweet!

klkatz said...

Lieber for Church.

One word. Pew.