Sunday, December 10, 2006

Garcia trade was good, not great

Let's get this out of the way from the top: Freddy Garcia is not an ace, and he is not the answer. However, the Phillies are better a better team with him, and in a better trading position after making the deal. So let's give some credit to Pat Gillick.

A lot of fans are complaining about this deal. Of course, a lot of fans complain because they think that it is their job, or that they have to maintain that Philly sports fan image. So let's get the negatives out of the way:
1) Gavin Floyd's potential. He is only 24, some pitchers put it together late, and he's got great stuff that a lot of the organization did not want to lose.
2) Gio Gonzalez is going to be really good. The White Sox hated losing him, the Phillies hated losing him, and everyone who sees him is impressed with him. Plus he's only 21.
3) Some of Garcia's peripheral stats aren't beautiful (all 2006 numbers for CWS): a 4.53 ERA, and 40! bases stolen against. Really, these numbers aren't bad, but the problem is that they've been getting worse over the last few years (as have the WHIP, K/9, and K/BB numbers), which is a bad sign for a guy who is 30. And they aren't the numbers of an ace.
4) Garcia has one year left on his contract.

In reality, though, this was a good move.
1) Floyd has a lot of potential. So did Madson as a starter. So did Brandon Duckworth. These things are not sure fire hits, especially when they have struggled at all levels for two seasons.
2) Gonzalez is closer to a sure fire hit, but remember when Floyd was completely untradeable? What the hell is Duckworth doing these days? Anyone remember how upset people were when the Phils traded a hot prospect to the Padres for Andy Ashby? That was Adam Eaton.

Besides that, we got Gonzalez from the ChiSox in the first place. Put the two trades together, and we got Rowand and Garcia (plus Fabio "don't call me Fidel" Castro by way of Texas for Daniel Haigwood) for Floyd and Thome. Thome is a hero, and had a great season...but Ryan Howard was the MVP and, frankly, is a beast. Gonzalez is a null value in the two deals.

3) Like I said, Garcia's stats are pretty good, putting him in the top 25 of AL starters last year. And they figure to improve given that he is moving to the NL and in a contract year. 18 of 33 Garcia starts were Quality Starts, or 55%. You'd like to see that number improve, but only Myers was better on the Phils last year. And guess what? Myers is your ace, whether you like it or not.

4) Garcia having one year left on the contract is a problem. You just can't say that he isn't good and that it is bad he is only here for one year - pick one. I choose that I wish he had a longer deal, but maybe we can sign him, and maybe we can sign someone else. But the big thing he does for us is allow us to trade Lieber (or go back in time and not sign Eaton?). I don't have a problem with Liber staying, but the team still has holes in the bullpen, and with no quality and cheap pitching out there, we should be able to make a good deal.

Look, it isn't a perfect trade. And I'm not sold on Gillick, because I don't agree with Wes Helms or Adam Eaton. But Garcia is a good picther who will be a great upgrade over last year's rotation; view the trade as a companion to the Thome deal, and all we gave up was Floyd; and remember that it gives us the room to manuever to trade a starter for the other problems with the club. Overall, it is a good trade, and shows that Gillick is willing to take a risk for the team. Before you jump on this trade, think of how badly you would be all over Gillick for doing nothing with the rotation all winter. It's a good deal.

1 comment:

Pete said...

I agree. I am not, however, mortified by Garcia potentially leaving after this year. In theory, we would get two picks since he would certainly be a Type A free agent, most likely a first rounder and sandwich pick, which essentially replace Gio and Floyd. And while you can't count on those picks necessarily and they certainly set us back a few years in development compared to the two guys we lost, it certainly would soften the blow. I also trust Gillick to lock up Garcia for a 3 year deal if he likes what he sees before the All-Star break.