First Day of Summer

In my calendar, today is the First Day of Summer. You can tell because it's Opening Day. This works much beter with people who talk about hope and beginning anew - that is the stuff of spring, and spring training. Now it is April, and we can start eliminating the Orioles, Nationals, Devil Rays, Royals, Rockies, and Pirates from playoff contention.

Luckily for me living in DC, we are opening against the Braves, which means I get the game on TBS. As I sit here watching the first pitch (fastball, outside corner, strike 1!) of the Phillies' season, here are a few Phillies predictions to put me on the record for 2007.

1. Cole Hamels will not win 15 games. Brett Myers will. Hamels is still a year away, because he will walk too many.

2. Pat Burrell will drive in 100 runs.

3. Ryan Howard will hit 50 home runs.

4. If he isn't your hero yet, Chase Utley will be your hero by the end of the year.

5. I will not have goosebumps. It's going to be a fun year anyway.

Protecting Ryan Howard

Since Pat Gillick apparently can't hire Jack Bauer, it looks like he'll have to find someone else to protect Ryan Howard in 2007. Speaking of Jack Bauer, some of you may know that after someone released Chuck Norris Facts, it was followed up with Jack Bauer Facts. But did you know that someone trumped them both with a list of facts for our very own stud lefty, Cole Hamels Facts?

My favorites:

When Delmon Young heard Cole was promoted to triple-A, he went and got himself suspended.
Cole Hamels only needs two seams to throw a four seam fastball.
Cole Hamels once struck a man out looking. Literally. Cole just gazed at him and the batter was retired on strikes.

Back to Ryan Howard, or actually, Pat Burrell. While everyone focuses on Burrell having a down year offensively (still hitting 29 homers and 95 rbis in limited action), especially his timid numbers with RISP, the case has also already been made that his numbers with RISP were very good two years ago and the kicker, that Burrell hit .423 following a Howard walk. I won't retell that story, you can read one take here.

The question that I want to pose is who will protect Pat Burrell? Pat Burrell led the league in pitches per plate appearance, taking over where Abreu left off. He actually walked more frequently than Ryan Howard last year. Howard walked in 15.5% of his PAs, Burrell in 17%. Burrell also struck out less than Ryan Howard, as Howard struck out in 31.2% of Abs to Burrell’s 28.4%. No I’m clearly not saying Burrell’s a better hitter, but he’s a very good hitter coming off of a sub par year. Power hitters are streaky, and Burrell seems to be an extreme example as he internalizes things and dwells on the negatives. Even while he was having a bad year (by his standards) he still displayed a better eye at the plate than Howard even. That peripheral stat means that 2007 should be a good year and Burrell’s stats will equalize eventually to show what a good hitter he is.

Burrell’s walk rate is actually rather alarming. Concerns about his aggressiveness aside, Burrell does what he should in protecting Howard, he is feared by the opposing team translating into walks. The problem is, the Phillies don’t have someone to protect Burrell. The Phillies used various 6th hole hitters last year, but this year it will appear to be Wes Helms, Aaron Rowand, or Rod Barajas/Carlos Ruiz. If none of these four players are playing well, the other team will continue to walk Burrell regardless of what Howard does. If one of these players has a great season, most likely to get a shot is Helms, then that player will rack up RBIs until teams stop walking Howard and Burrell, which should then increase both of their production.

I recently responded to a comment made by someone on a phillies.scout.com message board saying that the Phillies would be better with Jimmy Rollins protecting Howard. Now, aside from this screwing up the entire lineup, can you imagine the pitcher for the opposing team staring down Ryan Howard, then glancing into the on deck circle to see 5’8” Jimmy Rollins and being intimidated? I didn’t think so. None of the other Phillies can protect Howard. And in my mind, even if we acquired a bona fide power hitter to play 3rd or right, I would put them behind Burrell in the lineup, which would greatly increase his production, making the lineup even more of a terror for opposing pitching. Remember, the Phillies led the NL in runs. They have a fabulous 1-5, one of the best in baseball...it will be the success of batters 6-8 which could put them in a league of their own.