SOLVING THIRD: DO NOT SIGN LOWELL

I still don't understand how the public at large can form such strong, yet naive opinions based off of media coverage and recent history.

The FACTS:

• Mike Lowell is a good, not great baseball player.
  
• He's coming off a career year.
• He will be 33 when next season starts.
  
• No one wanted him a few years back when he was coming off a horrid year in Floridia.

Mike Lowell is not a great baseball player. I reserve the term great for players who play at a higher level than the rest of the league, year in, year out. Players like Jeter, Pujols, and now Howard is entering that mix. Pujols may be the most consistent player to ever pick up a bat. Howard had an off year by his measure, slumped bad in April, and still hit 47 home runs with 136 RBIs. How soon we forget that Lowell hit .238 (.298 OBP) in 2005 with 8 home runs and 58 RBIs in 150 games. Everyone is allowed to slump, but those numbers are simply atrocious. Even when Burrell had his worst season ever, when he hit .209, his OBS (.309), homers (21), RBIs (64) were all higher. And, admittedly I'm a Burrell guy, but did anyone ever noticed that the big guy legged out 4 triples that year (double his career high), meaning he was coming out of the box hard every AB and trying to earn that big paycheck he just signed?

Two full seasons ago, Mike Lowell was one of the worst third basemen in the league. Let that sink in a moment. The guy will be 33 when next year starts, warranting him about a 2, max 3 year deal. His average this year was a full 31 points higher than any other year of his career. His 120 RBIs were 40 more than last year with the same Boston hitters around him. He's only ever hit more than 30 home runs once, in 2003, and I hate to start playing this game, but the numbers to me, objectively, look like they could be performance enhancement induced. He never hit more than 24 homers previously, and never more than 27 since, but he managed 32 in only 130 games? His ABs per HR that season was 15.4, to a career 25.7 and 28 last year. Sometime to question, if nothing else.

There are positives to Lowell, and I'll note some here. He doesn't K a lot, as he's a contact hitter. Lowell's career high for strikeouts is 92, and he's consistently in the 60s and 70s. The Phillies lineup strikes out way too much, which makes them susceptible to offensive droughts, none more important than the lack of offensive production in the Rockies series. They need to add at least one bat to the middle of the lineup between Utley, Howard, Burrell and Rowand, that doesn't strike out 100+ (199 for Howard) in a season. Lowell also still plays a good 3b. That's important, as they try to bring ground ball pitchers to CBP, Moyer is still pitching another year, and Pat Burrell will be in left.

The VERDICT:
Offer him a 2 year, 22 Million dollar deal, with a club option for the 3rd with a nice buyout.

The market will clearly out price the Phils, but that's fine with me. Costanzo had another great year and looks like he'll be ready for a September call up possibly next year, an invitation to Spring Training the following, and joining the team for good in 2009 or 2010 at the latest. I'm guessing that Lowell has seen his best years, and I'm not convinced he won't relapse into his 2005 form, if even just for a half season. People simply don't get the buy low, sell high theory. The Red Sox stole Lowell as part of the Beckett trade a few years back. Now, every team will be in the mix for him as he just came off an MVP year.

I think the Phillies best options are to look at acquiring Hank Blalock, Miguel Tejada (assuming he will play 3rd), and Scott Rolen via trade. Blalock and Tejada both have 2 years on their deals and Rolen I believe has 3. This would give the Phils a proven veteran at third, with production and leadership they haven't seen since Rolen, himself. It will allow Costanzo time to progress, and send him a statement that says, "you're the future, kid." What it will take to acquire these players is beyond me. But if the Phils resign Rowand (which I strongly believe they should, but will go there in another post), I think Bourn makes a good trading chip, since there are 4 speedy outfielders in the minors (Greg Golson, D'Arby Myers, Dominic Brown and Quintin Berry) who at least 1 will be ready to go before Rowand (with new deal) or Victorino would be off the team.