SOLVING A CROWDED OUTFIELD: RESIGN ROWAND

Aaron Rowand is a very good baseball player, but that's only 50% of what Aaron Rowand brings to this team. He is gritty, a Philly style player, with heart, but that still only adds another 30% to what he brings. Aaron Rowand is glue that brings this team together, that's the last 20, and often unnoticed, percent that he brings to this team and city.

Aaron Rowand is the captain of the outfield. He is a leader on the bench and the clubhouse. He puts together team gatherings, barbeques and genuinely gels this team. Aaron Rowand bleeds intangibles, things not seen on the stat sheet or necessarily during the game, but contributes to the success of the franchise. That's why I've decided after some debate, we need to resign him at nearly any cost, he's priceless.

I'm not going to acknowledge the outrageous demand that Rowand supposedly made regarding his value. It did not come from a confirmed source, and there are too many reporters fabricating stories during a slow time (outside of Colorado, Boston and Cleveland) leading into the offseason. I don't believe Rowand is the type of guy to make those demands, so I will be objectively discussing his value here.

Like everyone, I hesitate to give Rowand a long term deal. He is, however, only 30, and despite the constant running into things, we're talking about a baseball, not football player. I believe Rowand could have 3 more years left of his prime. He'll start to lose a step in the outfield, but he's a smart player, so he'll adjust his play to suit his strengths.

Offensively, Rowand is a very good hitter. Last year was a career year, but it wasn't extraordinary by Rowand's standards as he's been consistently effective, especially over the last 4 years. He sports a career average of .286, .289 over the last 4 years. He has averaged 22 home runs (in a 162 game season) over the last 4 years. His strike outs are a tick high for the power he delivers, but he also brings smart baserunning and averaged 14 stolen bases (in a 162 game season) over the last 4 years. He answered questions about his durability this season playing in 161 games.

I think Gillick should stretch far to retain Rowand, if it takes 5 years, go ahead. I'd rather give him more money than years, but I don't think 5 years is too long for a consistent guy like Rowand. While we pay Burrell $14 Mil a year, I think getting Rowand for anything less is a discount. I'd offer him 4/$40, and be prepared to move up to 5/$60. I simply don't think the presence that Rowand brings to this team can be overstated.

The Rest of the Outfield

Shane Victorino and Michael Bourn are very good, young outfielders who deserve a chance to play everyday. I really like Victorino in right field, and I think he should patrol there for the next few years. He covers ground like a centerfielder, and has one of the best arms out there. Any loss in power offensively is more than made up for with Rowand, Burrell, and our infield. Actually, it's contact hitters that don't strike out, like Victorino, that this team needs to gain some consistency in the lineup. Victorino struck out 116 times...over the last two years. His stolen base threat really make his an asset to this team. He also managed 12 home runs in only 131 games, making him no pushover.

Michael Bourn is an interesting case. If we resign Rowand, I think we should trade Bourn for maximum value for a pitcher. The league is high on his potential, but he hasn't yet proved himself at the major league level. Crossing sports, he reminds me of AJ Feely when the Eagles maximized his value for a 2nd round pick. Bourn may mature into a great centerfielder for another team, but the Phillies have no less than 3 carbon copies of him in the minors that will be ready long before Rowand moves on. And because you essentially have two centerfielders starting, the 4th outfielder only needs to be able to play the corners.

Pat Burrell makes another interesting case. He's turned his career around and has repeatedly professed his desire to play in Philadelphia. If Burrell leaves after this year, ideally I would move Rowand to left and Victorino to center and replace Burrell with a rightfielder. Burrell brings a great OBP and good power, still with a plus arm despite his limited range. At this point, I'm comfortable with all three options with Burrell, trade him now or during next season, offer him arbitration to get draft picks or one more season with him after this year, or resigning him to a discounted deal without a no trade clause, maybe 3/$24.

The Phillies have a few outfield prospects in the system, along with some very infield prospects who could potentially shift to the outfield if Rollins and Utley stay healthy. I think Rowand, Victorino and Burrell give the Phillies an above average outfield, with the Phils hopefully bringing back Werth to be the 4th outfielder again.

SOLVING THIRD: DO NOT SIGN LOWELL

I still don't understand how the public at large can form such strong, yet naive opinions based off of media coverage and recent history.

The FACTS:

• Mike Lowell is a good, not great baseball player.
  
• He's coming off a career year.
• He will be 33 when next season starts.
  
• No one wanted him a few years back when he was coming off a horrid year in Floridia.

Mike Lowell is not a great baseball player. I reserve the term great for players who play at a higher level than the rest of the league, year in, year out. Players like Jeter, Pujols, and now Howard is entering that mix. Pujols may be the most consistent player to ever pick up a bat. Howard had an off year by his measure, slumped bad in April, and still hit 47 home runs with 136 RBIs. How soon we forget that Lowell hit .238 (.298 OBP) in 2005 with 8 home runs and 58 RBIs in 150 games. Everyone is allowed to slump, but those numbers are simply atrocious. Even when Burrell had his worst season ever, when he hit .209, his OBS (.309), homers (21), RBIs (64) were all higher. And, admittedly I'm a Burrell guy, but did anyone ever noticed that the big guy legged out 4 triples that year (double his career high), meaning he was coming out of the box hard every AB and trying to earn that big paycheck he just signed?

Two full seasons ago, Mike Lowell was one of the worst third basemen in the league. Let that sink in a moment. The guy will be 33 when next year starts, warranting him about a 2, max 3 year deal. His average this year was a full 31 points higher than any other year of his career. His 120 RBIs were 40 more than last year with the same Boston hitters around him. He's only ever hit more than 30 home runs once, in 2003, and I hate to start playing this game, but the numbers to me, objectively, look like they could be performance enhancement induced. He never hit more than 24 homers previously, and never more than 27 since, but he managed 32 in only 130 games? His ABs per HR that season was 15.4, to a career 25.7 and 28 last year. Sometime to question, if nothing else.

There are positives to Lowell, and I'll note some here. He doesn't K a lot, as he's a contact hitter. Lowell's career high for strikeouts is 92, and he's consistently in the 60s and 70s. The Phillies lineup strikes out way too much, which makes them susceptible to offensive droughts, none more important than the lack of offensive production in the Rockies series. They need to add at least one bat to the middle of the lineup between Utley, Howard, Burrell and Rowand, that doesn't strike out 100+ (199 for Howard) in a season. Lowell also still plays a good 3b. That's important, as they try to bring ground ball pitchers to CBP, Moyer is still pitching another year, and Pat Burrell will be in left.

The VERDICT:
Offer him a 2 year, 22 Million dollar deal, with a club option for the 3rd with a nice buyout.

The market will clearly out price the Phils, but that's fine with me. Costanzo had another great year and looks like he'll be ready for a September call up possibly next year, an invitation to Spring Training the following, and joining the team for good in 2009 or 2010 at the latest. I'm guessing that Lowell has seen his best years, and I'm not convinced he won't relapse into his 2005 form, if even just for a half season. People simply don't get the buy low, sell high theory. The Red Sox stole Lowell as part of the Beckett trade a few years back. Now, every team will be in the mix for him as he just came off an MVP year.

I think the Phillies best options are to look at acquiring Hank Blalock, Miguel Tejada (assuming he will play 3rd), and Scott Rolen via trade. Blalock and Tejada both have 2 years on their deals and Rolen I believe has 3. This would give the Phils a proven veteran at third, with production and leadership they haven't seen since Rolen, himself. It will allow Costanzo time to progress, and send him a statement that says, "you're the future, kid." What it will take to acquire these players is beyond me. But if the Phils resign Rowand (which I strongly believe they should, but will go there in another post), I think Bourn makes a good trading chip, since there are 4 speedy outfielders in the minors (Greg Golson, D'Arby Myers, Dominic Brown and Quintin Berry) who at least 1 will be ready to go before Rowand (with new deal) or Victorino would be off the team.

Substitutions

While Pete and I were at the Phils-Nats game last week, we were getting a little frustrated with the constant replacement of Burrell in the middle innings. Nearly every game, Bourn is pinch-running, pinch-hitting, pinch-fielding (a.k.a defensive replacement), or pinch-playing-seven-innings-because-the-bullpen-blows-the-lead for Burrell nearly every night. Even when Burrell pinch hits for Dobbs on Sunday, Bourn comes in and replaces him.

It's one thing to get Bourn in there for the 9th just to make sure the defense is set to hold the lead, it's entirely different to pinch run in the 6th when you are ahead. It's getting ridiculous, so we started wondering what else Bourn might be pinch-doing for Burrell. Burrell is a valuable commodity, so we have to protect him from reinjuring his foot or wrist or anything else, and Bourn is a rookie that we can abuse. So here's a partial list that we'll keep adding to when we get bored:

• Pinch-playing with the kids (see Griffey, Ken)
• Pinch-air guitar (see Zumaya, Joel)
• Pinch-mowing the lawn
• Pinch-taking out the trash (Bourn has to be able to do that faster)
• Pinch-running out for milk
• Pinch-changing a light bulb

But hey, this is a team. What could Burrell do for Bourn?

• Pinch-hitting the ball out of the infield
• Pinch-medical treatment (he's an expert)

For the record, I like both players, but that game was so boring, and the team so pathetic (hopefully this weekend is the start of turning it around), this is what we were driven to do.

The First Series

Well, that sucked. The Phillies lose three to the Braves to start the season. Maybe the warmer weather in Florida will help. These games looked just like last season: too many strikeouts, no hitting with runners in scoring position, bullpen blows two leads but is great in the game they needed a bunch of innings. Burrell's strikeouts were just as predictable as always, and he got booed by the few fans who stuck around even though the Phils were down 8-1 and it was snowing. Someone even tossed a beer bottle into the outfield towards the end of Thursday's game. This is why I hate Phillies fans.

And Ryan Howard is PISSED. He is still out there shaking his head playing in the field after striking out. I don't think he will struggle for too long, but I wonder how long it takes for someone to say on ESPN that the Phillies were so smart for waiting on this guy after getting burned on Burrell's contract. Instant wisdom like that is really only a suit and tie away from booing a harmless strikeout in April.

So now Charlie Manuel is back on the hot seat, as if Jimy Williams could possibly say something different if they give him a bigger office. Using Madson was the right move both times, although double-switching for the catcher when you are only carrying 2 catchers is strange...at this point, the players aren't doing it, and they weren't doing it for Bowa either. But it does suck to watch.

The Phils also continue to stockpile arms by acquiring Francisco Rosario from Toronto for cash. Certainly can't hurt.

First Day of Summer

In my calendar, today is the First Day of Summer. You can tell because it's Opening Day. This works much beter with people who talk about hope and beginning anew - that is the stuff of spring, and spring training. Now it is April, and we can start eliminating the Orioles, Nationals, Devil Rays, Royals, Rockies, and Pirates from playoff contention.

Luckily for me living in DC, we are opening against the Braves, which means I get the game on TBS. As I sit here watching the first pitch (fastball, outside corner, strike 1!) of the Phillies' season, here are a few Phillies predictions to put me on the record for 2007.

1. Cole Hamels will not win 15 games. Brett Myers will. Hamels is still a year away, because he will walk too many.

2. Pat Burrell will drive in 100 runs.

3. Ryan Howard will hit 50 home runs.

4. If he isn't your hero yet, Chase Utley will be your hero by the end of the year.

5. I will not have goosebumps. It's going to be a fun year anyway.

Spring Questions

You can keep your pagan sun worshipping - on the Calendar of Jeff, the first day of spring is the first day with a full slate of MLB exhibition games. In 2007, that fell yesterday, March 1 (the Phils lost to Detroit 9-7, and no one cared). It is not as holy a day as the first day of summer or the day pitchers and catchers report, but it is a cause for celebration nonetheless.

We've been pretty quiet during Spring Training so far because, well, there is nothing interesting to talk about. Everyone in Phillies camp is saying and doing the right things - even Mike Schmidt. Without any controversy, any injuries, or any feet inserted into mouths, what are we supposed to talk about? Here are 5 interesting questions to follow during Phillies camp (in no particular order). Although I have no insider knowledge about any of them, this is what I'll be watching for and complaining about for the next month.

1. Whither Jon Lieber?
Probably the biggest question this spring is where Jon Lieber is going. He will pitch for a major league club somewhere in some capacity, and I'm not sure if that is going to be in Philly or not. I can't see any of our 6 starters ending up in the bullpen. Pete has mentioned to me moving Moyer, because he could bounce back into the starting rotation and he throws junk so he can pitch consecutive nights. While that's probably true, he likely won't get enough work doing that. He would have to be used as a mop up guy or a lefty specialist, and end up getting one out per night, and I just don't see that with a guy who throws slower than highway traffic. Myers is a bulldog and could close, but he is a front of the rotation guy.

I see one of two scenarios: 1) Lieber gets dealt during spring training for less than we want back for him, marginally improving the bullpen, or 2) someone on our staff gets a minor injury and Lieber stays around on a 6-man rotation for a month or so, protecting the injured guy and injury prone Hamels and Eaton (or rather, whichever of them wasn't the first one with the injury). Then Lieber gets dealt to some other club with a pitching injury.

2. Who's on 3rd?
More importantly, does it matter? Nunez has the defense, Helms has the power...I lean to Nunez, since we score plenty of runs as it is and could use power on the bench. Of course, that assumes Nunez can manage to raise his average to at least .250.

3. What does the Lieby-less world look like?
I'm actually a Lieberthal fan, but in any case, his era has ended. Ruiz and Barajas are competing for the starting job, but it probably goes to Barajas unless and until he completely struggles. Ruiz will probably catch twice a week anyway. The big question is Chris Coste, who completely deserves a roster spot and can play the corner infield even if he isn't catching. It will be a shame if they don't keep him.

4. Can you throw a 6 seem fastball, and if so, what would it do?
Antonio Alfonseca is going to be our set up man? Really? This bullpen scares me, I'll be honest. If Gordon gets hurt, we have humongous problems. Hopefully he gets injured in a fight with a starter on another club who also happens to have two quality closer candidates, or we have problems.

5. Will Pat Burrell get to play 9 innings?
Burrell has too much talent and too much money to not be given every opportunity to hit 5th, play every day, and play every inning. If you keep taking him out of games when he is already struggling, and his struggles are already in his head, he is just going to put more pressure on himself in the 6th inning when he thinks its his last chance. Give him a shot at playing a full game. Besides, I don't want Werth hitting too often, do you?

One last note: I need to amend my list of offseason bad moves to add the loss of Scott Graham from the broadcasting team. I like him, and it's a shame he is gone, although I won't miss his ice cream commercials. He is a lot of fun as an announcer, whether it's the Phillies or the Big 5. I'll still be putting them in the win column for the Fightin' Phils all season.

Random Philly Sports Notes

Just some random recaps from the week:

Spring Training

The Phillies packed up their big rig for Clearwater. This article details exactly what goes to spring training with the team. My favorite:

There were 400 batting helmets on the truck? Four hundred?

"We have them with the [ear] flap on the left, with the flap on the right, and some with double flaps," Sheridan said. "We have them from size 6 7/8 to 8. Howard wears a 7 5/8. Todd Pratt wore an 8. And we have a few extra for Chase."

Sheridan explained that fiery second baseman Chase Utley can be a little hard on helmets.

"He'll go through six or seven a year," Sheridan said. "Somehow they end up having accidents, as he likes to say."

Schmidt and Burrell

Mike Schmidt critized Pat Burrell again, this time throwing Adam Dunn under the bus too, for striking out too much. This article details the interview.

Now I realize Schmidt has reached immortal status where he can say whatever he wants to the media (Curt Schilling is still striving to attain that status), but seriously, come on now, Mike! Critizing players for striking out too much, just like you, and saying they need to have a revelation, at 30, that you're having at 58. There isn't anything wrong with wishing the players well, but it comes off as a pointless scold from a stereotypical senile elder.

I'll ignore Adam Dunn because he doesn't mean anything to me. Schmidt is obviously the far better player than Burrell. Schimdt struck out 127 timees for an average 162 game season in his career to Burrell's 166. Schmidt's highest year exceeds Burrell's (180 to 162), though Burrell has been consisently higher (lowest career total is 130 to Schmidt's 80s towards the end of his career).

I realize Pat was a moron and refused Schimdt's help during his horrible slump year's back, but it seems like this interview was almost done out of spite. If Mike really wanted to help, I think he could have given Pat a call or paid him a visit to discuss things. Then, go to the media afterwards and talk about the chat they had. But, like I said, who am I to criticize Schmidt. Hopefully it doesn't shake Pat too much.

Jeff Garcia

This article pisses me off. Now I'll admit Jeff Garcia didn't pick the headline, and some of his words were most definitely taken out of context, but if Jeff Garcia is even thinking about leaving Philly for a starting role for a bad team, he's a complete and utter fool. The man is not starting QB material, not anymore atleast. He is for a few teams, but that only means that they don't have any talent on the roster. He just came from two bad situations (see Browns, Lions) where he got to start for last place teams. He's not getting any younger, and you would think he would be willing to resign with the Eagles for close to the minimum for another shot at the Super Bowl. Either that, or go start for the Bears since they clearly could have used him.

I also think it's a joke that another article I saw made resigning Garcia a priority saying the Eagles won't go to the Super Bowl without a capable back up behind McNabb. If McNabb doesn't stay healthy for a seaon, the Eagles will never win the Super Bowl during the McNabb era, unless we end up with the Joe Montana, Steve Young combination. McNabb is still the best quarterback on the team, and one of the best in the league. You need a back up to fill in for a couple games, but if he goes down for the season again, we are simply not winning it. The team is not built with enough talent to have a disposable quartback. It was nice that the players rallied around Garcia, but he should not be the QB of this team. Overpaying for a capable backup, such as him, would be a huge mistake this offseason. Let him start for a bad team for an inflated salary and a losing record.

Weird note:

I was looking at the Phillies spring training roster and noticed that Tom Gordon and Jamie Moyer, the team's two oldest players and integral parts of the team's pitching staff, share the same birthday (11/18) exactly five years apart. Combined, they have 83 years of life experience. The same amount as Chase, Jimmy and Ryan Howard combined (whose birthdays are all around the same time as well, 12/17, 11/27, and 11/19 respectively).

Protecting Ryan Howard

Since Pat Gillick apparently can't hire Jack Bauer, it looks like he'll have to find someone else to protect Ryan Howard in 2007. Speaking of Jack Bauer, some of you may know that after someone released Chuck Norris Facts, it was followed up with Jack Bauer Facts. But did you know that someone trumped them both with a list of facts for our very own stud lefty, Cole Hamels Facts?

My favorites:

When Delmon Young heard Cole was promoted to triple-A, he went and got himself suspended.
Cole Hamels only needs two seams to throw a four seam fastball.
Cole Hamels once struck a man out looking. Literally. Cole just gazed at him and the batter was retired on strikes.

Back to Ryan Howard, or actually, Pat Burrell. While everyone focuses on Burrell having a down year offensively (still hitting 29 homers and 95 rbis in limited action), especially his timid numbers with RISP, the case has also already been made that his numbers with RISP were very good two years ago and the kicker, that Burrell hit .423 following a Howard walk. I won't retell that story, you can read one take here.

The question that I want to pose is who will protect Pat Burrell? Pat Burrell led the league in pitches per plate appearance, taking over where Abreu left off. He actually walked more frequently than Ryan Howard last year. Howard walked in 15.5% of his PAs, Burrell in 17%. Burrell also struck out less than Ryan Howard, as Howard struck out in 31.2% of Abs to Burrell’s 28.4%. No I’m clearly not saying Burrell’s a better hitter, but he’s a very good hitter coming off of a sub par year. Power hitters are streaky, and Burrell seems to be an extreme example as he internalizes things and dwells on the negatives. Even while he was having a bad year (by his standards) he still displayed a better eye at the plate than Howard even. That peripheral stat means that 2007 should be a good year and Burrell’s stats will equalize eventually to show what a good hitter he is.

Burrell’s walk rate is actually rather alarming. Concerns about his aggressiveness aside, Burrell does what he should in protecting Howard, he is feared by the opposing team translating into walks. The problem is, the Phillies don’t have someone to protect Burrell. The Phillies used various 6th hole hitters last year, but this year it will appear to be Wes Helms, Aaron Rowand, or Rod Barajas/Carlos Ruiz. If none of these four players are playing well, the other team will continue to walk Burrell regardless of what Howard does. If one of these players has a great season, most likely to get a shot is Helms, then that player will rack up RBIs until teams stop walking Howard and Burrell, which should then increase both of their production.

I recently responded to a comment made by someone on a phillies.scout.com message board saying that the Phillies would be better with Jimmy Rollins protecting Howard. Now, aside from this screwing up the entire lineup, can you imagine the pitcher for the opposing team staring down Ryan Howard, then glancing into the on deck circle to see 5’8” Jimmy Rollins and being intimidated? I didn’t think so. None of the other Phillies can protect Howard. And in my mind, even if we acquired a bona fide power hitter to play 3rd or right, I would put them behind Burrell in the lineup, which would greatly increase his production, making the lineup even more of a terror for opposing pitching. Remember, the Phillies led the NL in runs. They have a fabulous 1-5, one of the best in baseball...it will be the success of batters 6-8 which could put them in a league of their own.

Phillies sign Utley through 2013

The Phillies signed Chase Utley to a 7yr/85 Million dollar contract extension. Every Phillie fan in the nation is breathing a sigh of relief, knowing that, barring injury, Chase will be patroling the right side of the infield for the foreseeable future. Yes the Phillies could have settled on a one year deal, or tried their hand in arbitration, but Utley deserved to be rewarded, and Pat Gillick smartly realized that the time was now. With Rollins singed through 2010, the most productive middle infield combination in the history of the National League gives Phils fans reason to cheer for years to come.

Not to diminish Utley's moment in the sun, but I wanted to compare this deal to another current Phillie, Pat Burrell. Everyone remembers (and now disdains) Burrell's long contract extension after he powered his way onto the scene in 2002.

Let's compare the numbers:
Utley


Burrell


While the numbers are similar, Utley has been head and shoulders above Burrell, considering that the power numbers are close, and Utley is not a prototype power hitter. Utley has a slight edge in games played, but the most important factor here
is consistency. Look at the gap between the year before the extension and the career numbers. Utley's career averages were close to his most recent year, suggesting a stable, consistent trend. Burrell's averages were far from his breakout year, hinting that it could have been a fluke, or simply a slight aberration from a streaky player.

There are other factors here that I am overlooking, namely that power hitters are streaky by nature and the fact that Burrell had established himself in college, as one of the greatest collegiate hitters of all time. But if contracts were given on college stats, we would have signed JD Drew. And because power hitters are streaky, maybe that requires a little more time before locking them up long term if they don't find consistency early. Ed Wade chose to hope for the best, and locked Burrell up on a 6 yr/50 Million dollar contract, heavily back loaded, as we are experiencing now.

While you can't predict how Utley will fare for the next few years (same as you couldn't with Burrell), you can control when you give the extension, making sure the player has established himself, so it is less likely that their numbers will regress. Utley has shown consistency for two and a half seasons, as he's established himself as arguably the best second basemen in the league.

And while fans were clamoring for Aramis Ramirez this offseason (who eventually took a reported 'hometown discount' to stay with the Cubs at 5yr/75 Million), I can only say that Utley's deal is not only more important to this franchise (than Aramis to the Cubs), but Utley is a better players, and will make slightly less money per year over a longer term (though it's noted that Utley had no bargaining power as he could not yet test Free Agency). It can be argued that the drop off from the top tier second basemen is greater than the drop off from the top tier third basemen, making Utley's position even more valuable, too.

Regardless, this is a great signing by the Phillies, as Utley has put up incredible numbers, and shown promise and consistency. I can't guarantee, but I would be extremely surprised if we ever heard Utley's deal compared to Pat Burrell's (at least in the light of unrealized expectations) again.