Aaron Rowand is a very good baseball player, but that's only 50% of what Aaron Rowand brings to this team. He is gritty, a Philly style player, with heart, but that still only adds another 30% to what he brings. Aaron Rowand is glue that brings this team together, that's the last 20, and often unnoticed, percent that he brings to this team and city.
Aaron Rowand is the captain of the outfield. He is a leader on the bench and the clubhouse. He puts together team gatherings, barbeques and genuinely gels this team. Aaron Rowand bleeds intangibles, things not seen on the stat sheet or necessarily during the game, but contributes to the success of the franchise. That's why I've decided after some debate, we need to resign him at nearly any cost, he's priceless.
I'm not going to acknowledge the outrageous demand that Rowand supposedly made regarding his value. It did not come from a confirmed source, and there are too many reporters fabricating stories during a slow time (outside of Colorado, Boston and Cleveland) leading into the offseason. I don't believe Rowand is the type of guy to make those demands, so I will be objectively discussing his value here.
Like everyone, I hesitate to give Rowand a long term deal. He is, however, only 30, and despite the constant running into things, we're talking about a baseball, not football player. I believe Rowand could have 3 more years left of his prime. He'll start to lose a step in the outfield, but he's a smart player, so he'll adjust his play to suit his strengths.
Offensively, Rowand is a very good hitter. Last year was a career year, but it wasn't extraordinary by Rowand's standards as he's been consistently effective, especially over the last 4 years. He sports a career average of .286, .289 over the last 4 years. He has averaged 22 home runs (in a 162 game season) over the last 4 years. His strike outs are a tick high for the power he delivers, but he also brings smart baserunning and averaged 14 stolen bases (in a 162 game season) over the last 4 years. He answered questions about his durability this season playing in 161 games.
I think Gillick should stretch far to retain Rowand, if it takes 5 years, go ahead. I'd rather give him more money than years, but I don't think 5 years is too long for a consistent guy like Rowand. While we pay Burrell $14 Mil a year, I think getting Rowand for anything less is a discount. I'd offer him 4/$40, and be prepared to move up to 5/$60. I simply don't think the presence that Rowand brings to this team can be overstated.
The Rest of the Outfield
Shane Victorino and Michael Bourn are very good, young outfielders who deserve a chance to play everyday. I really like Victorino in right field, and I think he should patrol there for the next few years. He covers ground like a centerfielder, and has one of the best arms out there. Any loss in power offensively is more than made up for with Rowand, Burrell, and our infield. Actually, it's contact hitters that don't strike out, like Victorino, that this team needs to gain some consistency in the lineup. Victorino struck out 116 times...over the last two years. His stolen base threat really make his an asset to this team. He also managed 12 home runs in only 131 games, making him no pushover.
Michael Bourn is an interesting case. If we resign Rowand, I think we should trade Bourn for maximum value for a pitcher. The league is high on his potential, but he hasn't yet proved himself at the major league level. Crossing sports, he reminds me of AJ Feely when the Eagles maximized his value for a 2nd round pick. Bourn may mature into a great centerfielder for another team, but the Phillies have no less than 3 carbon copies of him in the minors that will be ready long before Rowand moves on. And because you essentially have two centerfielders starting, the 4th outfielder only needs to be able to play the corners.
Pat Burrell makes another interesting case. He's turned his career around and has repeatedly professed his desire to play in Philadelphia. If Burrell leaves after this year, ideally I would move Rowand to left and Victorino to center and replace Burrell with a rightfielder. Burrell brings a great OBP and good power, still with a plus arm despite his limited range. At this point, I'm comfortable with all three options with Burrell, trade him now or during next season, offer him arbitration to get draft picks or one more season with him after this year, or resigning him to a discounted deal without a no trade clause, maybe 3/$24.
The Phillies have a few outfield prospects in the system, along with some very infield prospects who could potentially shift to the outfield if Rollins and Utley stay healthy. I think Rowand, Victorino and Burrell give the Phillies an above average outfield, with the Phils hopefully bringing back Werth to be the 4th outfielder again.
Showing posts with label Aaron Rowand. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Aaron Rowand. Show all posts
Saturday, October 20, 2007
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Warning: Police Report Potential Baseball Sighting in Philadelphia
Just when you think they are out, they pull you back in! The Phillies, now sporting their first three-game winning streak of the season (let's be honest, first winning streak of the season), are starting to look like a real baseball team. That's three straight days with a solid starting effort, no blown saves, and a little bit of offense. Utley and Victorino have been ginormous over the last 3 games, and Rowand is riding a bit of a hitting streak. Rollins had a phenomenal day yesterday. Hopefully those guys all level off and stay as good as we think they are (or stay hot, that would be fine) and Howard wakes up. Then the offense is back to where we know it should be, and need it to be, and we can get back in this divisional race. Still plenty of Mets and Braves games left!
The purpose of this post is mostly to show that we do say positive things about the Phillies, too. Therefore, I won't mention the team's past experience with scoring 10 runs one day and 1 run the next. We can pitch and moan when they lose, let's just savor the winning streak (which I have now officially jinxed) while it lasts.
The purpose of this post is mostly to show that we do say positive things about the Phillies, too. Therefore, I won't mention the team's past experience with scoring 10 runs one day and 1 run the next. We can pitch and moan when they lose, let's just savor the winning streak (which I have now officially jinxed) while it lasts.
Thursday, April 19, 2007
Phillies and More
PHILLIES
Jeff and I attended the Phillies/Nationals battle for last place game today. While it's always entertaining to watch guys strike out on 72 mile per hour pitches from the crafty Jamie Moyer, they game was extremely boring to watch. Shane Victorino by the way, should have been so out on his steal attempt, but apparently, Lopez just blew the tag even though the throw was on the base.
Managing mistakes:
Chally didn't make too many boneheaded mistakes in this one. We supported his decision to leave Moyer in for the 8th, and to start the 9th (even at 106 pitches) because the bullpen needed an obvious rest heading into a long stretch of continuous games. He did, however, pinch run for Burrell with Bourn in the 6th inning, way too early in a still close game. An outfield of Bourn, Rowand, and Victorino for the final few innings ranks with the worst in baseball.
I can't remember the last time I felt confident about a win with a 4 run lead in the 9th...something is very wrong with this franchise. It's certainly fair for Moyer to give up a few hits his 4th time through the lineup. But then Gordon apparently wanted to make us sweat it out a little. If the Nats hit the grand slam to win it, Jeff and I were officially giving up on the team. That has been postoned for the time being.Outfield
The Phillies really need to do something about their outfield situation. Michael Bourn is ready to play in the MLB, and if nothing else, should be playing full time in AAA rather than pinch running for Burrell. In Victorino, Rollins, and Bourn, the Phils have 3 incredibly fast players all with some degree of leadoff potential. Bourn and Victorino both deserve a shot to play center as well. Aaron Rowand needs to be traded soon. I would put him in right for the meantime, except he doesn't have the arm. Ideally, Victorino or Bourn should be traded too, since the team is not designed to lose power in right, especially with Burrell only getting 400 ABs a year.
It's also time to move Rollins down in the lineup. Victorino and Bourn deserve a shot at leadoff, and the way Rollins is hitting I think he would make a great 6 hitter. What this lineup is missing is a pure #2 hitter. Someone who doesn't strike out, who hits to all fields, with gap power. This hitter should either come from right or third the way the team is built. Helms may be that guy at this point in his career, but I think he strikes out too much. Victorino or Bourn may also develop into that guy, but I think if one leads off, the other is best suited for the 8 hole. That would help provide some offsense from our usually stagnant bottom of the lineup.
I don't think this team needs Barajas. I was fine with the signing at the time, but Ruiz has proven his worth. Coste also deserves to be on the team, and Jamarillo provides depth and should take over the backup job at some point next year. There was interest in Barajas this offseason, so I think we should scout any teams with injuries at the position.
Guys to trade:
I hate to put guys on the auction block, and sadly, a lot of these guys haven't drawn interest yet, but I think the team would benefit from addition by subtraction with trading a few of these guys.
- Rod Barajas
- Aaron Rowand
- Abraham Nunez or Danny Sandoval
- Chris Roberson
- Jon Lieber
- Tom Gordon
- Jamie Moyer
It's simply Rowand's time to go. He's in a FA year, and I have a feeling the Phils won't offer him arbitration. Trade him to the highest bidder by the deadline regardless of how the team is doing. Give Bourn some seasoning so he can move into at least a platoon spot next year.
I'm not sold on trading Lieber until Garcia is proven healthy. But either way, Lieber is the reason our opening day starter is in the bullpen, this is inexcusable. Hopefully he pitches well, and someone with a need, see Yankees, will offer us a few low level prospects.
I'm still waiting for Gordon's arm to fall off. I didn't like the risk in the 3 year deal to begin with and thought they should have traded him last season. He's going to become an expensive set up man eventually, and if he's still the team's closer next year, they aren't going anywhere to begin with. Oh why couldn't we have traded for Rafael Soriano?
The team owes it to Moyer to give him one last shot at winning. I like the way he mentors Hamels, and think he is an asset to the team. So trade him to a contender with the understanding that the minute he retires he can come be the pitching coach. This would let one of the younger guys come up and get a head start on pitching in the rotation next year.
NFL PROSPECTS SMOKE WEED
This is news? Come on! Everyone needs to get off of their high horse and stop pretending that marijuana is only used by criminals. How many politicians, police officers, and judges are smoking up right now?
RICKY WILLIAMS
Speaking of drug users, supposedly the Rams are interested in Ricky Williams if he is reinstated. Why don't the Eagles take a run at the guy? He's a low risk, high reward case. I think Andy keeps the distraction to a minimum, and if he makes the team, he's a big back to come in behind Westbrook and bruise some carries up the middle.
Sunday, February 11, 2007
Off Season in Review
Sorry I've been gone for so long - sometimes that long, cold winter really gets to me. But now the sun is still up at 5pm, and we are just four days away from hearing those 4 beautiful words - pitchers and catchers report. That means the first day of spring is just around the corner - the Phils play their first MLB game on March 1 against Detroit. I don't care about your pagan groundhog rituals, your sunworshipping, or the fact that it will probably snow that day - when the Phillies start playing, its Spring. Cue up "Centerfield."
Anyway, although every indication is that Gillick isn't done dealing yet this year, let's take a look at the highlights from the offseason.
Best Moves of the Offseason
1. The Freddy Garcia trade - I don't care that we gave up some pitching potential for one year of a pitcher, this was a great trade and the kind of move we have to make to take it to the next level. Garcia is a top of the rotation winner and will hopefully take some pressure off of Myers (although Myers needs to be the team's ace because he is better than Garcia when he is in shape and throwing fastballs instead of punches).
2. Not giving away Lieber or Rowand - Lieber probably will be traded, and I won't have a problem for that as long as it gets us something good in return. Let's not try the switcheroo where Lieber goes for a decent outfielder and Rowand goes for a reliever - it had better be an All-Star closer who is willing to be the set up man while Gordon's arm stays on his body. Rowand is one of those guys that people who look at stats don't like - he strikes out too much, doesn't walk enough, doesn't have enough power, and isn't fast enough to cover the kind of ground that the A-list centerfielders do. But he plays great defense, fans love him, and players rally around him - he is the kind of guy that championship teams have (see Eckstein, David). And we might need Lieber if we have an injury (which we will).
3. Not signing Alfonso Soriano - yes, Soriano is a beast of a hitter, a base stealing machine, and apparently a pretty good outfielder. He also strikes out 100+ times a year and came with an insane price tag and long term contract that can drown a franchise. He replaces Burrell, and is better, but not enough different to change the make up of the team, except killing us when we sign Howard long term, also. Good non-move there.
Worst Moves of the Offseason
1. Not offering arbitration to Aaron Fultz - what was going to happen, we had to pay $3 million for one year of a reliable reliever? He probably wanted more years and was going to sign elsewhere, so we get a draft pick. If he signs, we get his pitching, which will be pretty solid once again. Don't say I didn't warn you when we make a trade in mid-July for a veteran lefty reliever who makes more money and isn't any more effective than Fultz. Not sure what they were thinking.
2. Signing Adam Eaton - I'll give Gillick the benefit of the doubt in two areas here: a) I thought at the time this was too much money, but it turns out that it is under-market, so good for them, b) I'll assume they didn't know we'd end up with Garcia. I also like the fact that we drafted 3/5 of our starting rotation and 4/8 of our starting lineup (Burrell, Rollins, Howard, Utley). But Eaton isn't that good and you just know he is going to get hurt. I can feel the injury coming, and I put the over-under at June 10.
3. (tie) Signing Wes Helms, Rod Barajas, and Jayson Werth - seriously, Wes Helms, Rod Barajas, and Jayson Werth are going to play for the World Series champions? Whatever. So Taguchi, I guess.
And a special bonus category, Absolute Ridiculous Move Of The Off-Season: $50M for Gary Matthews Jr. Well, maybe the Angels know more than I do, but from here, it looks like no one ever made more off of one catch since Aaron Rowand's plastic surgeon. Matthews hit .313-19-79 last year. Previous career bests were a .275 average, 17 HRs and 55 RBI. The Angels will be his 7th team in 9 years. He is 32. That, my friends, is Absolutely Ridiculous, with a capital A and a capital R.
Anyway, although every indication is that Gillick isn't done dealing yet this year, let's take a look at the highlights from the offseason.
Best Moves of the Offseason
1. The Freddy Garcia trade - I don't care that we gave up some pitching potential for one year of a pitcher, this was a great trade and the kind of move we have to make to take it to the next level. Garcia is a top of the rotation winner and will hopefully take some pressure off of Myers (although Myers needs to be the team's ace because he is better than Garcia when he is in shape and throwing fastballs instead of punches).
2. Not giving away Lieber or Rowand - Lieber probably will be traded, and I won't have a problem for that as long as it gets us something good in return. Let's not try the switcheroo where Lieber goes for a decent outfielder and Rowand goes for a reliever - it had better be an All-Star closer who is willing to be the set up man while Gordon's arm stays on his body. Rowand is one of those guys that people who look at stats don't like - he strikes out too much, doesn't walk enough, doesn't have enough power, and isn't fast enough to cover the kind of ground that the A-list centerfielders do. But he plays great defense, fans love him, and players rally around him - he is the kind of guy that championship teams have (see Eckstein, David). And we might need Lieber if we have an injury (which we will).
3. Not signing Alfonso Soriano - yes, Soriano is a beast of a hitter, a base stealing machine, and apparently a pretty good outfielder. He also strikes out 100+ times a year and came with an insane price tag and long term contract that can drown a franchise. He replaces Burrell, and is better, but not enough different to change the make up of the team, except killing us when we sign Howard long term, also. Good non-move there.
Worst Moves of the Offseason
1. Not offering arbitration to Aaron Fultz - what was going to happen, we had to pay $3 million for one year of a reliable reliever? He probably wanted more years and was going to sign elsewhere, so we get a draft pick. If he signs, we get his pitching, which will be pretty solid once again. Don't say I didn't warn you when we make a trade in mid-July for a veteran lefty reliever who makes more money and isn't any more effective than Fultz. Not sure what they were thinking.
2. Signing Adam Eaton - I'll give Gillick the benefit of the doubt in two areas here: a) I thought at the time this was too much money, but it turns out that it is under-market, so good for them, b) I'll assume they didn't know we'd end up with Garcia. I also like the fact that we drafted 3/5 of our starting rotation and 4/8 of our starting lineup (Burrell, Rollins, Howard, Utley). But Eaton isn't that good and you just know he is going to get hurt. I can feel the injury coming, and I put the over-under at June 10.
3. (tie) Signing Wes Helms, Rod Barajas, and Jayson Werth - seriously, Wes Helms, Rod Barajas, and Jayson Werth are going to play for the World Series champions? Whatever. So Taguchi, I guess.
And a special bonus category, Absolute Ridiculous Move Of The Off-Season: $50M for Gary Matthews Jr. Well, maybe the Angels know more than I do, but from here, it looks like no one ever made more off of one catch since Aaron Rowand's plastic surgeon. Matthews hit .313-19-79 last year. Previous career bests were a .275 average, 17 HRs and 55 RBI. The Angels will be his 7th team in 9 years. He is 32. That, my friends, is Absolutely Ridiculous, with a capital A and a capital R.
Sunday, January 28, 2007
Latest Trade Rumors
Recently, there are stories going around the Hot Stove about the Phils. I'll recap some of the stories and my thoughts.
1. Rowand for Scott Linebrink and a mid level prospect.
Supposedly, the Padres are interested in Rowand and are willing to part with Linebrink. Linebrink is a 30 year old reliever with a 3.12 career ERA (3.57 last season). The knock on him is that he supposedly has only converted 3 of 22 save chances or something, which prompted the author or these rumors to explain that the Phils would demand at least a mid level prospect to go with Linebrink.
2. Lieber for Ryan Church
I don't know if I heard this or made the connection in my head, but if the Phils deal Rowand, then they absolutely need another proven outfielder, and the Nats are shopping Church and in need of pitching. I checked the stats comparing Rowand to Church, and they are eerily close in a lot of categories. They are both the same size (6'1") and nearly the same weight (Rowand at 200 has 10 pounds on Church). They both hit about .270 with 15-20 homeruns and 60 RBI. They are actually only 1 year apart in age (Church is 28 I believe), but Church came into the league 3 years after Rowand, meaning he's not yet into his arbitration years. You would lose defense with Church, but he's still got a little more potential than Rowand at the plate.
3. Lieber for Akinori Otsuka
If the previous deals don't happen, another option would be to use Lieber to get Texas' former closer. Otsuka is 35, and has only pitched 3 seasons in the MLB. He has thrown to a 2.43 ERA (2.11 last season) and has closer experience, closing 32 games for Texas last season.
With the first pair of deals, you are essentially trading Lieber for Linebrink and a prospect, and returning a slightly younger and cheaper version of Aaron Rowand to play right instead of center. While that sounds like an ok deal, I hesitate to trade Rowand for essentially the same type of player, even indirectly. Unless they can get a top 5 closer, I don't think we should trade Lieber and Rowand. Rowand shouldn't be traded unless we can upgrade the outfield.
That leaves the Lieber for Otsuka deal. I don't know how I feel about this one either. At 35, I feel like he'd be a short term fix to our bullpen situation. I'd rather look for a guy right around 30, who we can count on to sure up our pen for at least a few years. And with Jeff Weaver getting 8 Mil for one year with Seattle, I think we may be able to get a better option than Otsuka for Lieber.
These are simply rumors, and we all know that rumors usually get leaked once the potential deal dies, or at least cools.
1. Rowand for Scott Linebrink and a mid level prospect.
Supposedly, the Padres are interested in Rowand and are willing to part with Linebrink. Linebrink is a 30 year old reliever with a 3.12 career ERA (3.57 last season). The knock on him is that he supposedly has only converted 3 of 22 save chances or something, which prompted the author or these rumors to explain that the Phils would demand at least a mid level prospect to go with Linebrink.
2. Lieber for Ryan Church
I don't know if I heard this or made the connection in my head, but if the Phils deal Rowand, then they absolutely need another proven outfielder, and the Nats are shopping Church and in need of pitching. I checked the stats comparing Rowand to Church, and they are eerily close in a lot of categories. They are both the same size (6'1") and nearly the same weight (Rowand at 200 has 10 pounds on Church). They both hit about .270 with 15-20 homeruns and 60 RBI. They are actually only 1 year apart in age (Church is 28 I believe), but Church came into the league 3 years after Rowand, meaning he's not yet into his arbitration years. You would lose defense with Church, but he's still got a little more potential than Rowand at the plate.
3. Lieber for Akinori Otsuka
If the previous deals don't happen, another option would be to use Lieber to get Texas' former closer. Otsuka is 35, and has only pitched 3 seasons in the MLB. He has thrown to a 2.43 ERA (2.11 last season) and has closer experience, closing 32 games for Texas last season.
With the first pair of deals, you are essentially trading Lieber for Linebrink and a prospect, and returning a slightly younger and cheaper version of Aaron Rowand to play right instead of center. While that sounds like an ok deal, I hesitate to trade Rowand for essentially the same type of player, even indirectly. Unless they can get a top 5 closer, I don't think we should trade Lieber and Rowand. Rowand shouldn't be traded unless we can upgrade the outfield.
That leaves the Lieber for Otsuka deal. I don't know how I feel about this one either. At 35, I feel like he'd be a short term fix to our bullpen situation. I'd rather look for a guy right around 30, who we can count on to sure up our pen for at least a few years. And with Jeff Weaver getting 8 Mil for one year with Seattle, I think we may be able to get a better option than Otsuka for Lieber.
These are simply rumors, and we all know that rumors usually get leaked once the potential deal dies, or at least cools.
Sunday, December 10, 2006
My Thoughts on Aaron Rowand
I don't quite understand the infatuation with Aaron Rowand. I mean, of course I appreciate "the catch," and the guy plays the game the right way. But for some reason Philly fans treat this guy as if he's their first born child.
Objectively looking at Aaron Rowand...I see a strikingly similar player in David Bell...former #1 public enemy in Philadelphia. David Bell is a guy who will hit about .270 20 HR 80 RBI with a couble big hits and great defense. He is also highly touted for his leadership and clubhouse attitude. But the people's perception of Bell was that he was a bum, he was injured with chronic back pain, and they wanted him off the team yesterday. Rowand is the same player. Similar offensive numbers mean he doesn't add that much to the lineup, hitting 6 or 7. And he's admired for his hard nose style and defense, which wound up getting him hurt and missing time last year. The funny thing is, the Phils never even had a decent backup for Bell, making him an important part of the team, but we have a great centerfielder-in-the-making in Shane Victorino, who may end up better than Rowand. Rowand also reminds me of Lenny Dystra, famed Phillies centerfield of the 1993 World Series team, except without the ability to draw walks and bat leadoff.
Now don't get me wrong, I like Aaron Rowand. But he's not the prodigal son, and he's only part of the core of this team if all the other pieces are in place. He simply isn't a complete offensive player to build around. And based on some of the trade rumors, the perception around the league is that he is more valuable than that. So with a capable replacement in Victorino, the Phillies should definitely be listening to offers for the hard nosed Rowand, and while he would be missed, he may bring us more value in a trade than on the field.
Edit: I almost forgot...Rowand only has one more year left on his contract. So, he could walk at the end of the year, potentially back to the White Sox. If we can't get him signed to an extension by the All-Star break, I would be reluctant to hold him and watch him leave as a free agent.
Objectively looking at Aaron Rowand...I see a strikingly similar player in David Bell...former #1 public enemy in Philadelphia. David Bell is a guy who will hit about .270 20 HR 80 RBI with a couble big hits and great defense. He is also highly touted for his leadership and clubhouse attitude. But the people's perception of Bell was that he was a bum, he was injured with chronic back pain, and they wanted him off the team yesterday. Rowand is the same player. Similar offensive numbers mean he doesn't add that much to the lineup, hitting 6 or 7. And he's admired for his hard nose style and defense, which wound up getting him hurt and missing time last year. The funny thing is, the Phils never even had a decent backup for Bell, making him an important part of the team, but we have a great centerfielder-in-the-making in Shane Victorino, who may end up better than Rowand. Rowand also reminds me of Lenny Dystra, famed Phillies centerfield of the 1993 World Series team, except without the ability to draw walks and bat leadoff.
Now don't get me wrong, I like Aaron Rowand. But he's not the prodigal son, and he's only part of the core of this team if all the other pieces are in place. He simply isn't a complete offensive player to build around. And based on some of the trade rumors, the perception around the league is that he is more valuable than that. So with a capable replacement in Victorino, the Phillies should definitely be listening to offers for the hard nosed Rowand, and while he would be missed, he may bring us more value in a trade than on the field.
Edit: I almost forgot...Rowand only has one more year left on his contract. So, he could walk at the end of the year, potentially back to the White Sox. If we can't get him signed to an extension by the All-Star break, I would be reluctant to hold him and watch him leave as a free agent.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
