The First Series

Well, that sucked. The Phillies lose three to the Braves to start the season. Maybe the warmer weather in Florida will help. These games looked just like last season: too many strikeouts, no hitting with runners in scoring position, bullpen blows two leads but is great in the game they needed a bunch of innings. Burrell's strikeouts were just as predictable as always, and he got booed by the few fans who stuck around even though the Phils were down 8-1 and it was snowing. Someone even tossed a beer bottle into the outfield towards the end of Thursday's game. This is why I hate Phillies fans.

And Ryan Howard is PISSED. He is still out there shaking his head playing in the field after striking out. I don't think he will struggle for too long, but I wonder how long it takes for someone to say on ESPN that the Phillies were so smart for waiting on this guy after getting burned on Burrell's contract. Instant wisdom like that is really only a suit and tie away from booing a harmless strikeout in April.

So now Charlie Manuel is back on the hot seat, as if Jimy Williams could possibly say something different if they give him a bigger office. Using Madson was the right move both times, although double-switching for the catcher when you are only carrying 2 catchers is strange...at this point, the players aren't doing it, and they weren't doing it for Bowa either. But it does suck to watch.

The Phils also continue to stockpile arms by acquiring Francisco Rosario from Toronto for cash. Certainly can't hurt.

First Day of Summer

In my calendar, today is the First Day of Summer. You can tell because it's Opening Day. This works much beter with people who talk about hope and beginning anew - that is the stuff of spring, and spring training. Now it is April, and we can start eliminating the Orioles, Nationals, Devil Rays, Royals, Rockies, and Pirates from playoff contention.

Luckily for me living in DC, we are opening against the Braves, which means I get the game on TBS. As I sit here watching the first pitch (fastball, outside corner, strike 1!) of the Phillies' season, here are a few Phillies predictions to put me on the record for 2007.

1. Cole Hamels will not win 15 games. Brett Myers will. Hamels is still a year away, because he will walk too many.

2. Pat Burrell will drive in 100 runs.

3. Ryan Howard will hit 50 home runs.

4. If he isn't your hero yet, Chase Utley will be your hero by the end of the year.

5. I will not have goosebumps. It's going to be a fun year anyway.

Looking Back...the 1997 MLB Amateur Draft

I was thinking about Jeff's comment regarding his preference about keeping Randy Wolf over Jamie Moyer. I decided that since Moyer pitched for us as long as Wolf last season, what about Wolf compared to Adam Eaton, the new old Phillie? I had a feeling they've had similar careers to date, so I did some research. First, the stat lines (click them for bigger font...I can't figure out how to get tables to show up larger):

Wolf

Eaton

As you can see, Wolf has had the slightly more impressive career to date...and he's a lefty. The similarities between the players, however, go past the major league stats.

The facts:

Eaton was drafted in the first round by the Phils in the 1996 draft. Wolf was drafted in 1997 in the second, more on that to follow later.

Aside from similar major league stats, the two had the exact same ERA in the minor leagues, 3.63.

Eaton had more minor league innings (mostly due to rehad stints), and threw to a 30-26 record while Wolf ended his minors career at 20-14.

Both have clearly dealt with injuries in their career, Eaton most recently with his finger, and Wolf with his Tommy John surgery.

Wolf clearly has the rubber arm, throwing over 200 innings 3 times in his career. In Eaton's defense, he did throw 199.1 and 183 in two injury free seasons in San Diego (putting the comment about him never throwing 200 innings in perspective. Wolf threw 210, 206, and 200 even...not exactly blowing away the 200 mark, but reaching it nonetheless).

Both are good hitting pitchers, with almost identical career batting averages. Wolf has the slight edge as a career .194 batter to Eaton's .191.

Their slugging % is nearly identical, with Wolf again the slight leader at .280 to Eaton's .274. This is mostly due to the fact that Wolf has 4 career homers, to Eaton's two.

Wolf is a bit of a freeswinger, though, as Eaton leads the OBP by a huge margin at .270 to .235.

My theory about the Phillies letting Wolf go because they didn't want a pitcher outhitting Nunez over the course of a full season apparently couldn't have been more off with Eaton coming in the door. Maybe they figure he'll be rusty from the AL.

To my surprise, Eaton has actually stolen 5 bases in his career, getting thrown out only once. Wolf has never attempted.

What's this all mean? Well, of course I'd rather have Wolf back. Eaton, however, is nearly as good, when healthy, and the team already has two lefties diminishing the value of Wolf's lefthand (though they probably don't resign Moyer if Wolf stays). So, understanding the health concerns, I'm fine with Eaton as our #4/5. Actually I'm thrilled with it. At the end of the day, he's better and more consistent (even given the injury history) than Ryan Madson and Gavin Floyd, two-fifths of last year's season starting rotation. I understand he was expensive, but if we get two nearly healthy seasons out of him, it has to be considered a positive outcome.

I stand by my word, if we didn't get Eaton and the Garcia trade didn't happen, we would have been in a bidding war for Gil Meche and counting on Lieber not showing up to camp at 280 pounds. I also think we may have had to give up more for Garcia since we clearly would have been getting desperate, and the ChiSox would pitted us against the Mets or someone else. Instead, we had a full rotation already, and realized that they were desperate to get Gio Gonzalez back.

More on the 1997 Draft

Now playing third base for the Philadelphia Phillies: Troy Glaus.

Ok, this obvously isn't true. But do you know when Troy was drafted? Not just in 1997, but with the third pick overall. Right after we took J "D battery in the face" Drew. Can you imagine if the Phillies drafted and retained Glaus instead of Drew? An infield consisting of 4 All-Stars...with everyone just hitting their prime with Glaus only turning 30 this season. Sure he strikes out a lot and isn't known for his defense, but he averages 37 home runs per year. Ah to dream.

One a related note, I get extremely angry everytime I'm reminded that the Phillies had a trade worked out for Hank Blalock, until John Lieber decided to have his worst outing of the year against the Nats, I believe, right before the trade deadline. Blalock coming off a bad season for an overweight Lieber would have been an incredible heist. There would be no Wes Helms or Abe Nunez to worry about. No worrying about Pat Burrell. Manual could flip flop Burrel and Blalock behind Howard based on who was hot. What a nightmare for opposing pitchers!

Back to the former draft pick, known as schmuck. I thank the heavens that he did not win the World Series last year with the Cardinals. I may have to give up on baseball if he wins a ring before our beloveds do.

More on the 1997 draft, the first player taken, Matt Anderson by the Tigers, is out of baseball after a short career with an ERA over 7, proving that nothing is guarenteed. After Glaus was taken 3rd, his current teammate, Vernon Wells was taken 5, followed by Jon Garland at 10, Lance Berkman at 17, and even Adam Kennedy at 20, all players I'd rather have than our short time with Jason "Fisticuffs" Michaels who was our sandwich pick compensation for the schmuck not signing.

Oddly enough, Jayson Werth was taken with the 22nd pick in the first round...as a catcher. After Wolf was taken at 2 in the 2nd round, Scott Linebrink went at #4, a reliever mentioned in the Lieber and Rowand trade talks. Then, Chase Utley went at #76 overall to the Dodgers...as a shortstop. Utley went to UCLA and was drafted by the Phils in the first round in 2000. The Phils next 2 picks in the 1997 draft never went past A ball, and then in round 5 they drafted Derrick Turnbow, another guy mentioned in trade rumors.

Overall, the draft was a complete bust for the Phillies. They only selected one player who made an impact, and he is no longer with the team. A few better choices would have put this team in the playoffs a few times in the last couple years. It's amazing that an entire draft, with 50 rounds, netted the Phillies one major league baseball players. Thank goodness Arbuckle has learned from that debacle.

P.S.
I am a Flyers fan, but the team apparently did not like my credentials, so they are giving me nothing to write about in the first year of this blog. I guess I have to prove my writing skills before they will win again.

On that note, they beat Detroit tonight for a 6-1 win...a score that would have meant a whole lot between about 1998 and 2003. They are utterly terrible, and not yet even rebuilding, though Forsberg will be traded soon to the highest bidder a la Allen Iverson. They will feel the effects of Bobby Clark's "basher mentality" for a long time, however.

Random Philly Sports Notes

Just some random recaps from the week:

Spring Training

The Phillies packed up their big rig for Clearwater. This article details exactly what goes to spring training with the team. My favorite:

There were 400 batting helmets on the truck? Four hundred?

"We have them with the [ear] flap on the left, with the flap on the right, and some with double flaps," Sheridan said. "We have them from size 6 7/8 to 8. Howard wears a 7 5/8. Todd Pratt wore an 8. And we have a few extra for Chase."

Sheridan explained that fiery second baseman Chase Utley can be a little hard on helmets.

"He'll go through six or seven a year," Sheridan said. "Somehow they end up having accidents, as he likes to say."

Schmidt and Burrell

Mike Schmidt critized Pat Burrell again, this time throwing Adam Dunn under the bus too, for striking out too much. This article details the interview.

Now I realize Schmidt has reached immortal status where he can say whatever he wants to the media (Curt Schilling is still striving to attain that status), but seriously, come on now, Mike! Critizing players for striking out too much, just like you, and saying they need to have a revelation, at 30, that you're having at 58. There isn't anything wrong with wishing the players well, but it comes off as a pointless scold from a stereotypical senile elder.

I'll ignore Adam Dunn because he doesn't mean anything to me. Schmidt is obviously the far better player than Burrell. Schimdt struck out 127 timees for an average 162 game season in his career to Burrell's 166. Schmidt's highest year exceeds Burrell's (180 to 162), though Burrell has been consisently higher (lowest career total is 130 to Schmidt's 80s towards the end of his career).

I realize Pat was a moron and refused Schimdt's help during his horrible slump year's back, but it seems like this interview was almost done out of spite. If Mike really wanted to help, I think he could have given Pat a call or paid him a visit to discuss things. Then, go to the media afterwards and talk about the chat they had. But, like I said, who am I to criticize Schmidt. Hopefully it doesn't shake Pat too much.

Jeff Garcia

This article pisses me off. Now I'll admit Jeff Garcia didn't pick the headline, and some of his words were most definitely taken out of context, but if Jeff Garcia is even thinking about leaving Philly for a starting role for a bad team, he's a complete and utter fool. The man is not starting QB material, not anymore atleast. He is for a few teams, but that only means that they don't have any talent on the roster. He just came from two bad situations (see Browns, Lions) where he got to start for last place teams. He's not getting any younger, and you would think he would be willing to resign with the Eagles for close to the minimum for another shot at the Super Bowl. Either that, or go start for the Bears since they clearly could have used him.

I also think it's a joke that another article I saw made resigning Garcia a priority saying the Eagles won't go to the Super Bowl without a capable back up behind McNabb. If McNabb doesn't stay healthy for a seaon, the Eagles will never win the Super Bowl during the McNabb era, unless we end up with the Joe Montana, Steve Young combination. McNabb is still the best quarterback on the team, and one of the best in the league. You need a back up to fill in for a couple games, but if he goes down for the season again, we are simply not winning it. The team is not built with enough talent to have a disposable quartback. It was nice that the players rallied around Garcia, but he should not be the QB of this team. Overpaying for a capable backup, such as him, would be a huge mistake this offseason. Let him start for a bad team for an inflated salary and a losing record.

Weird note:

I was looking at the Phillies spring training roster and noticed that Tom Gordon and Jamie Moyer, the team's two oldest players and integral parts of the team's pitching staff, share the same birthday (11/18) exactly five years apart. Combined, they have 83 years of life experience. The same amount as Chase, Jimmy and Ryan Howard combined (whose birthdays are all around the same time as well, 12/17, 11/27, and 11/19 respectively).

Protecting Ryan Howard

Since Pat Gillick apparently can't hire Jack Bauer, it looks like he'll have to find someone else to protect Ryan Howard in 2007. Speaking of Jack Bauer, some of you may know that after someone released Chuck Norris Facts, it was followed up with Jack Bauer Facts. But did you know that someone trumped them both with a list of facts for our very own stud lefty, Cole Hamels Facts?

My favorites:

When Delmon Young heard Cole was promoted to triple-A, he went and got himself suspended.
Cole Hamels only needs two seams to throw a four seam fastball.
Cole Hamels once struck a man out looking. Literally. Cole just gazed at him and the batter was retired on strikes.

Back to Ryan Howard, or actually, Pat Burrell. While everyone focuses on Burrell having a down year offensively (still hitting 29 homers and 95 rbis in limited action), especially his timid numbers with RISP, the case has also already been made that his numbers with RISP were very good two years ago and the kicker, that Burrell hit .423 following a Howard walk. I won't retell that story, you can read one take here.

The question that I want to pose is who will protect Pat Burrell? Pat Burrell led the league in pitches per plate appearance, taking over where Abreu left off. He actually walked more frequently than Ryan Howard last year. Howard walked in 15.5% of his PAs, Burrell in 17%. Burrell also struck out less than Ryan Howard, as Howard struck out in 31.2% of Abs to Burrell’s 28.4%. No I’m clearly not saying Burrell’s a better hitter, but he’s a very good hitter coming off of a sub par year. Power hitters are streaky, and Burrell seems to be an extreme example as he internalizes things and dwells on the negatives. Even while he was having a bad year (by his standards) he still displayed a better eye at the plate than Howard even. That peripheral stat means that 2007 should be a good year and Burrell’s stats will equalize eventually to show what a good hitter he is.

Burrell’s walk rate is actually rather alarming. Concerns about his aggressiveness aside, Burrell does what he should in protecting Howard, he is feared by the opposing team translating into walks. The problem is, the Phillies don’t have someone to protect Burrell. The Phillies used various 6th hole hitters last year, but this year it will appear to be Wes Helms, Aaron Rowand, or Rod Barajas/Carlos Ruiz. If none of these four players are playing well, the other team will continue to walk Burrell regardless of what Howard does. If one of these players has a great season, most likely to get a shot is Helms, then that player will rack up RBIs until teams stop walking Howard and Burrell, which should then increase both of their production.

I recently responded to a comment made by someone on a phillies.scout.com message board saying that the Phillies would be better with Jimmy Rollins protecting Howard. Now, aside from this screwing up the entire lineup, can you imagine the pitcher for the opposing team staring down Ryan Howard, then glancing into the on deck circle to see 5’8” Jimmy Rollins and being intimidated? I didn’t think so. None of the other Phillies can protect Howard. And in my mind, even if we acquired a bona fide power hitter to play 3rd or right, I would put them behind Burrell in the lineup, which would greatly increase his production, making the lineup even more of a terror for opposing pitching. Remember, the Phillies led the NL in runs. They have a fabulous 1-5, one of the best in baseball...it will be the success of batters 6-8 which could put them in a league of their own.

Philadelphia Optimism?

Leave it to Chase Utley to pick the city of Philadelphia up when it's down (certainly no easy task). Excerps from his interview in the Inquirer:

"I'm very excited," Utley said. "I expect Ryan to come out and be ready. I actually think he still has room for improvement. The same with Jimmy, as well as myself. I think I can play better. I hope - actually, I don't hope - I expect everyone to want to get better."

"Two years in a row, we've been one or two games out of the playoffs, and I don't want that to happen again," Utley said. "We need to come into spring training from day one and be ready to go. We know what it takes to win - we've just got to do it."

And if for some unknown reason you still need proof:

'They were the most productive trio of infielders in baseball last year. None exceeded the group's 362 runs, 576 hits, 115 home runs or 334 RBIs. The trio outproduced Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Jason Giambi of the New York Yankees, and Carlos Delgado, David Wright and Jose Reyes of the New York Mets.'

So the future of Philadelphia sports isn't as gloomy as the last few weeks.

The full article can be found here: http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/sports/baseball/16467919.htm