Phillies and More

PHILLIES

Jeff and I attended the Phillies/Nationals battle for last place game today. While it's always entertaining to watch guys strike out on 72 mile per hour pitches from the crafty Jamie Moyer, they game was extremely boring to watch. Shane Victorino by the way, should have been so out on his steal attempt, but apparently, Lopez just blew the tag even though the throw was on the base.

Managing mistakes:

Chally didn't make too many boneheaded mistakes in this one. We supported his decision to leave Moyer in for the 8th, and to start the 9th (even at 106 pitches) because the bullpen needed an obvious rest heading into a long stretch of continuous games. He did, however, pinch run for Burrell with Bourn in the 6th inning, way too early in a still close game. An outfield of Bourn, Rowand, and Victorino for the final few innings ranks with the worst in baseball.

I can't remember the last time I felt confident about a win with a 4 run lead in the 9th...something is very wrong with this franchise. It's certainly fair for Moyer to give up a few hits his 4th time through the lineup. But then Gordon apparently wanted to make us sweat it out a little. If the Nats hit the grand slam to win it, Jeff and I were officially giving up on the team. That has been postoned for the time being.

Outfield

The Phillies really need to do something about their outfield situation. Michael Bourn is ready to play in the MLB, and if nothing else, should be playing full time in AAA rather than pinch running for Burrell. In Victorino, Rollins, and Bourn, the Phils have 3 incredibly fast players all with some degree of leadoff potential. Bourn and Victorino both deserve a shot to play center as well. Aaron Rowand needs to be traded soon. I would put him in right for the meantime, except he doesn't have the arm. Ideally, Victorino or Bourn should be traded too, since the team is not designed to lose power in right, especially with Burrell only getting 400 ABs a year.

It's also time to move Rollins down in the lineup. Victorino and Bourn deserve a shot at leadoff, and the way Rollins is hitting I think he would make a great 6 hitter. What this lineup is missing is a pure #2 hitter. Someone who doesn't strike out, who hits to all fields, with gap power. This hitter should either come from right or third the way the team is built. Helms may be that guy at this point in his career, but I think he strikes out too much. Victorino or Bourn may also develop into that guy, but I think if one leads off, the other is best suited for the 8 hole. That would help provide some offsense from our usually stagnant bottom of the lineup.

I don't think this team needs Barajas. I was fine with the signing at the time, but Ruiz has proven his worth. Coste also deserves to be on the team, and Jamarillo provides depth and should take over the backup job at some point next year. There was interest in Barajas this offseason, so I think we should scout any teams with injuries at the position.

Guys to trade:

I hate to put guys on the auction block, and sadly, a lot of these guys haven't drawn interest yet, but I think the team would benefit from addition by subtraction with trading a few of these guys.

• Rod Barajas
• Aaron Rowand
• Abraham Nunez or Danny Sandoval
  
• Chris Roberson
• Jon Lieber
• Tom Gordon
• Jamie Moyer
  

I understand we likely won't get anything for Nunez, Sandoval or Roberson, but I think these subpar players even being options bring down the team. How does Nunez already have 2 starts at third? He's the WORST hitter in the league. The lineup is already struggling. Sandoval is essentially the same player, we don't need both of them for any reason, it's hard to justify keeping one.

It's simply Rowand's time to go. He's in a FA year, and I have a feeling the Phils won't offer him arbitration. Trade him to the highest bidder by the deadline regardless of how the team is doing. Give Bourn some seasoning so he can move into at least a platoon spot next year.

I'm not sold on trading Lieber until Garcia is proven healthy. But either way, Lieber is the reason our opening day starter is in the bullpen, this is inexcusable. Hopefully he pitches well, and someone with a need, see Yankees, will offer us a few low level prospects.

I'm still waiting for Gordon's arm to fall off. I didn't like the risk in the 3 year deal to begin with and thought they should have traded him last season. He's going to become an expensive set up man eventually, and if he's still the team's closer next year, they aren't going anywhere to begin with. Oh why couldn't we have traded for Rafael Soriano?

The team owes it to Moyer to give him one last shot at winning. I like the way he mentors Hamels, and think he is an asset to the team. So trade him to a contender with the understanding that the minute he retires he can come be the pitching coach. This would let one of the younger guys come up and get a head start on pitching in the rotation next year.

NFL PROSPECTS SMOKE WEED

This is news? Come on! Everyone needs to get off of their high horse and stop pretending that marijuana is only used by criminals. How many politicians, police officers, and judges are smoking up right now?

RICKY WILLIAMS

Speaking of drug users, supposedly the Rams are interested in Ricky Williams if he is reinstated. Why don't the Eagles take a run at the guy? He's a low risk, high reward case. I think Andy keeps the distraction to a minimum, and if he makes the team, he's a big back to come in behind Westbrook and bruise some carries up the middle.

First Day of Summer

In my calendar, today is the First Day of Summer. You can tell because it's Opening Day. This works much beter with people who talk about hope and beginning anew - that is the stuff of spring, and spring training. Now it is April, and we can start eliminating the Orioles, Nationals, Devil Rays, Royals, Rockies, and Pirates from playoff contention.

Luckily for me living in DC, we are opening against the Braves, which means I get the game on TBS. As I sit here watching the first pitch (fastball, outside corner, strike 1!) of the Phillies' season, here are a few Phillies predictions to put me on the record for 2007.

1. Cole Hamels will not win 15 games. Brett Myers will. Hamels is still a year away, because he will walk too many.

2. Pat Burrell will drive in 100 runs.

3. Ryan Howard will hit 50 home runs.

4. If he isn't your hero yet, Chase Utley will be your hero by the end of the year.

5. I will not have goosebumps. It's going to be a fun year anyway.

Off Season in Review

Sorry I've been gone for so long - sometimes that long, cold winter really gets to me. But now the sun is still up at 5pm, and we are just four days away from hearing those 4 beautiful words - pitchers and catchers report. That means the first day of spring is just around the corner - the Phils play their first MLB game on March 1 against Detroit. I don't care about your pagan groundhog rituals, your sunworshipping, or the fact that it will probably snow that day - when the Phillies start playing, its Spring. Cue up "Centerfield."

Anyway, although every indication is that Gillick isn't done dealing yet this year, let's take a look at the highlights from the offseason.

Best Moves of the Offseason
1. The Freddy Garcia trade - I don't care that we gave up some pitching potential for one year of a pitcher, this was a great trade and the kind of move we have to make to take it to the next level. Garcia is a top of the rotation winner and will hopefully take some pressure off of Myers (although Myers needs to be the team's ace because he is better than Garcia when he is in shape and throwing fastballs instead of punches).

2. Not giving away Lieber or Rowand - Lieber probably will be traded, and I won't have a problem for that as long as it gets us something good in return. Let's not try the switcheroo where Lieber goes for a decent outfielder and Rowand goes for a reliever - it had better be an All-Star closer who is willing to be the set up man while Gordon's arm stays on his body. Rowand is one of those guys that people who look at stats don't like - he strikes out too much, doesn't walk enough, doesn't have enough power, and isn't fast enough to cover the kind of ground that the A-list centerfielders do. But he plays great defense, fans love him, and players rally around him - he is the kind of guy that championship teams have (see Eckstein, David). And we might need Lieber if we have an injury (which we will).

3. Not signing Alfonso Soriano - yes, Soriano is a beast of a hitter, a base stealing machine, and apparently a pretty good outfielder. He also strikes out 100+ times a year and came with an insane price tag and long term contract that can drown a franchise. He replaces Burrell, and is better, but not enough different to change the make up of the team, except killing us when we sign Howard long term, also. Good non-move there.

Worst Moves of the Offseason
1. Not offering arbitration to Aaron Fultz - what was going to happen, we had to pay $3 million for one year of a reliable reliever? He probably wanted more years and was going to sign elsewhere, so we get a draft pick. If he signs, we get his pitching, which will be pretty solid once again. Don't say I didn't warn you when we make a trade in mid-July for a veteran lefty reliever who makes more money and isn't any more effective than Fultz. Not sure what they were thinking.

2. Signing Adam Eaton - I'll give Gillick the benefit of the doubt in two areas here: a) I thought at the time this was too much money, but it turns out that it is under-market, so good for them, b) I'll assume they didn't know we'd end up with Garcia. I also like the fact that we drafted 3/5 of our starting rotation and 4/8 of our starting lineup (Burrell, Rollins, Howard, Utley). But Eaton isn't that good and you just know he is going to get hurt. I can feel the injury coming, and I put the over-under at June 10.

3. (tie) Signing Wes Helms, Rod Barajas, and Jayson Werth - seriously, Wes Helms, Rod Barajas, and Jayson Werth are going to play for the World Series champions? Whatever. So Taguchi, I guess.

And a special bonus category, Absolute Ridiculous Move Of The Off-Season: $50M for Gary Matthews Jr. Well, maybe the Angels know more than I do, but from here, it looks like no one ever made more off of one catch since Aaron Rowand's plastic surgeon. Matthews hit .313-19-79 last year. Previous career bests were a .275 average, 17 HRs and 55 RBI. The Angels will be his 7th team in 9 years. He is 32. That, my friends, is Absolutely Ridiculous, with a capital A and a capital R.

Myers signed through '09

The Phillies today signed Brett Myers through 2009 today with a 3 year/$25.75 Million deal.

First off, after Utley's deal, Gillick returned to old form with only a 3 year deal to a pitcher. This move makes sense for a lot of reasons. Myers was arbitration eligible, and he wasn't happy with the Phils offer. He made $3.3 Mil last season, asked for $5.9 and would probably have received just over $5. So take that away from the total and they are essentially paying him $20 over 2 years, or $10 per. With Adam Eaton averaging $8 per, that's not a bad figure.

The Phillies bought out Myers' last two arbitration years and delayed free agency for one more. The only thing I would have liked to see would have been a club option for a 4th year, even if it included a $1 Mil buyout. That's still a relative low risk, considering Myers is only 26, and should only get better.

Regardless, this move keeps their bulldog happy for the next few years and provides an anchor in the rotation (for stability...not the Jon Leiber kind of anchor). This was the perfect move for Gillick and for the Phillies.