The First Series

Well, that sucked. The Phillies lose three to the Braves to start the season. Maybe the warmer weather in Florida will help. These games looked just like last season: too many strikeouts, no hitting with runners in scoring position, bullpen blows two leads but is great in the game they needed a bunch of innings. Burrell's strikeouts were just as predictable as always, and he got booed by the few fans who stuck around even though the Phils were down 8-1 and it was snowing. Someone even tossed a beer bottle into the outfield towards the end of Thursday's game. This is why I hate Phillies fans.

And Ryan Howard is PISSED. He is still out there shaking his head playing in the field after striking out. I don't think he will struggle for too long, but I wonder how long it takes for someone to say on ESPN that the Phillies were so smart for waiting on this guy after getting burned on Burrell's contract. Instant wisdom like that is really only a suit and tie away from booing a harmless strikeout in April.

So now Charlie Manuel is back on the hot seat, as if Jimy Williams could possibly say something different if they give him a bigger office. Using Madson was the right move both times, although double-switching for the catcher when you are only carrying 2 catchers is strange...at this point, the players aren't doing it, and they weren't doing it for Bowa either. But it does suck to watch.

The Phils also continue to stockpile arms by acquiring Francisco Rosario from Toronto for cash. Certainly can't hurt.

More Spring Training Notes

We are one third of the way through March, even though I am close to completing my first season in MLB '07 "The Show," which, if you were considering buying a baseball game this year, definitely buy The Show over 2k7. The 2k series have always been subpar, and even bringing in one of the top guys from the now retired EA MVP series didn't help. Aside from bad gameplay, it supposedly has a ton of bugs, which include batters occasionally standing backwards in the box. The Show plays well, and a new feature allows you to create a rookie and fight your way onto a minor league and pro team, but only having to play your player's events (ABs, pitching, fielding, etc.), which makes the game go quickly. I'll forgive them for the default roster having Werth start over Victorino.

Back to real baseball:

Greg Dobbs will make the Phillies. He is hitting .500 with 5 home runs (2 of which were in "unofficial" games). Even though I don't believe in the need for a "Lefty" bench player (I think someone that hits righties well, like Coste, does the trick), having a guy like Dobbs who can play multiple positions and give you some pop will help this team. Looking over his stats, he has played 1st, 3rd, but also LF and RF in his short career with the Mariners. He had two errors his rookie season at 3rd, and hasn't made an error in limited opportunities since then. Interestingly, he was drafted twice, but eventually signed as a free agent. He refused to sign after being taken in the 52nd round in 96, and again in the 10th round in 99. Somehow his stock plummeted and the Mariners (the team that drafted him in 96) signed him as a minor league FA in 2001. I don't know the story, but it seems to me like a guy who never got his chance, in the Coste mold, but about 5 years younger.

Ryan Madson is adding a slider. Thank goodness. His curveball was worthless last year. More and more, effective bullpen guys need more than a two pitch arsenal. Madson's fastball-changeup combo is above average, but they lose effectiveness when the hitter can sit on one or the other. You almost always need a pitch with movement to keep the hitters off balance, and hopefully he can hone his new slider to at least put it in the back of hitters' minds and throw it once or twice an inning.

Garcia's fastball is slow and flat. Before we raise the white flag, we need to give this evaluation some time. Last season he lost velocity down the stretch, but that was probably due to pitching the entire postseason and then the World Baseball Classic. As a veteran, he is off the hook for the spring, as long as he gets himself ready. He could go out there and throw one pitch in the same location for 3 innings if he wanted. And it's still early, if his fastball is slow and flat in the last week of spring training, then it's time to worry.

Gavin Floyd is getting rocked, but still being fed fake confidence. Let the White Sox deal with it. We are so relieved to be looking from the outside in right about now. He's giving up a run an inning right this spring (I don't care if some are unearned, the error could be on him for all I know). I don't know what else there is to do for him other than have his Mom manage the team and his Dad be his pitching coach. His ego is more delicate than Eaton's finger. By the way, Gio Gonzalez is scoreless in his first 4 innings pitched.

What to do with Lieber. This isn't a serious question until opening day. Someone, including us, will have another starter injury and will be desperate for a guy who can eat all the donuts in the clubhouse. Worse things have happened than entering the season with 6 starters. As long as someone besides Manuel is making the decisions, I'm OK with it. But were' not raising this issue again until April.

How good does it feel to see the Braves and Marlins lose Starting Pitching. I don't know about you, and maybe I'm sadistic, but I was happy to see Hampton and Josh Johnson both go down for a couple months. Couple that with the Nats only having about one pitcher, and the Mets with 3 guys hanging on by a thread, and we have the best pitching staff in the division by far. I do think we are the team to beat, even with a subpar bullpen.

None of the Rule 5s will make the team. Jim Ed Warden and Alfredo Simon have both been hit pretty hard so far. Unless one of these guys goes on fire to finish the spring, I don't think either are options for an already mainly inexperienced bullpen. The catcher may not have had a chance initially, but acquiring Barajas and Werth completely pushed him out of the picture.

Stockpiling Arms...Antonio Alfonseca?

The Phillies have signed Antonio Alfonseca to a one year contract, non-guarenteed, at the veteran's minimum with incentives up to $1.1 Mil. Not quite the solid arm we were looking for but what this bullpen lacks in quality, it hopefully makes up for in quantity. In related news, the Phillies avoided arbitration with Ryan Madson by signing him to a one year deal, at $1.1 Mil for one year.

Let's take a look at the Phillies bullpen makeover:

2006 Spring Training:

• Gordon
• Rhodes
• Franklin
• Fultz
• Cormier
• Santana
• Geary

2006 Season's End:

• Gordon
• White
• Castro
• Condrey
• Sanchez
• Madson
• Smith
• Geary
  

2007 Spring Training potential:

• Gordon
• Madson
• Smith
• Geary
  
• Alfonseca
• Garcia
• Warden
• Simon
• Livingston
• Castro
• Brito

Gordon and Geary are the only ones on all three lists, while Madson was a starter going into the Spring last year before returning to the pen. The first 4 spots for this year are most likely set to the first four guys listed. That leaves the final 7 guys to compete for 2 spots assuming they carry the usual 6 guys. They still make pick up another proven reliver from a series of trades beginning with Lieber. From this cast, I'd say that Brito and Livingston are long shots. Castro is an interesting case, and I've heard conflicting reports about whether he will compete for the bullpen or become a starter in AAA Ottawa. That leaves the Rule 5 guys Simon and Warden who both have the stuff to pitch but with makeup and consistency questions, waiver pick up Garcia, and recently acquired Alfonseca, who supposedly dropped 28 pounds and is pitching well in winter ball. The 12 fingered pitcher, formerly of a handful fo teams, known for his Marlins success, is dubbed the Octopus.

It seems every year the Phillies sign a couple second tier relievers for big bucks, who are handed spots in the bullpen, and seemingly stink up the joint (I won't even start with names). This year, they are saving the money, getting a bunch of cheap arms with potential, for an open competition in spring training, and liekly going with the best showings for the '07 pen. I'm all for this, since they can cut most of these guys at little or no cost (what we all wished they could have done with Franklin and Rhodes last season...and there I go naming names).

One mistake they made, in my opinion, was not offering Aaron Fultz arbitration, making him an unrestricted FA. I belive Fultz would have signed elsewhere and netted us 2 picks as he was a Type 1 FA. Even if he accepted arbitration, he is one year removed from his 2.24 ERA year with us (clearly not his norm), but even his 4.54 ERA last year wasn't that bad. I understand we don't want to settle for "not that bad" but my point is that he had value, and ended up with the Indians, along with David Dellucci. And the Indians would still have signed him, even if they had to give up a pick, because their 1st rounder is protected, and Dellucci got bumped to a 3rd rounder because they also signed Roberto Hernandez, who was somehow rated higher than Dellucci. That would have meant they would only have to give up an extra 4th round pick for Fultz, while we would have gotten another sandwich pick. I really think Gillick dropped the ball on the chance to aquire two valuable picks there, or if nothing else, acquire a solid long reliever in the pen for a slightly inflated price.

Spring training should at least be interesting to watch. The last few spots could be wide open for a large cast of guys.