Spring Questions

You can keep your pagan sun worshipping - on the Calendar of Jeff, the first day of spring is the first day with a full slate of MLB exhibition games. In 2007, that fell yesterday, March 1 (the Phils lost to Detroit 9-7, and no one cared). It is not as holy a day as the first day of summer or the day pitchers and catchers report, but it is a cause for celebration nonetheless.

We've been pretty quiet during Spring Training so far because, well, there is nothing interesting to talk about. Everyone in Phillies camp is saying and doing the right things - even Mike Schmidt. Without any controversy, any injuries, or any feet inserted into mouths, what are we supposed to talk about? Here are 5 interesting questions to follow during Phillies camp (in no particular order). Although I have no insider knowledge about any of them, this is what I'll be watching for and complaining about for the next month.

1. Whither Jon Lieber?
Probably the biggest question this spring is where Jon Lieber is going. He will pitch for a major league club somewhere in some capacity, and I'm not sure if that is going to be in Philly or not. I can't see any of our 6 starters ending up in the bullpen. Pete has mentioned to me moving Moyer, because he could bounce back into the starting rotation and he throws junk so he can pitch consecutive nights. While that's probably true, he likely won't get enough work doing that. He would have to be used as a mop up guy or a lefty specialist, and end up getting one out per night, and I just don't see that with a guy who throws slower than highway traffic. Myers is a bulldog and could close, but he is a front of the rotation guy.

I see one of two scenarios: 1) Lieber gets dealt during spring training for less than we want back for him, marginally improving the bullpen, or 2) someone on our staff gets a minor injury and Lieber stays around on a 6-man rotation for a month or so, protecting the injured guy and injury prone Hamels and Eaton (or rather, whichever of them wasn't the first one with the injury). Then Lieber gets dealt to some other club with a pitching injury.

2. Who's on 3rd?
More importantly, does it matter? Nunez has the defense, Helms has the power...I lean to Nunez, since we score plenty of runs as it is and could use power on the bench. Of course, that assumes Nunez can manage to raise his average to at least .250.

3. What does the Lieby-less world look like?
I'm actually a Lieberthal fan, but in any case, his era has ended. Ruiz and Barajas are competing for the starting job, but it probably goes to Barajas unless and until he completely struggles. Ruiz will probably catch twice a week anyway. The big question is Chris Coste, who completely deserves a roster spot and can play the corner infield even if he isn't catching. It will be a shame if they don't keep him.

4. Can you throw a 6 seem fastball, and if so, what would it do?
Antonio Alfonseca is going to be our set up man? Really? This bullpen scares me, I'll be honest. If Gordon gets hurt, we have humongous problems. Hopefully he gets injured in a fight with a starter on another club who also happens to have two quality closer candidates, or we have problems.

5. Will Pat Burrell get to play 9 innings?
Burrell has too much talent and too much money to not be given every opportunity to hit 5th, play every day, and play every inning. If you keep taking him out of games when he is already struggling, and his struggles are already in his head, he is just going to put more pressure on himself in the 6th inning when he thinks its his last chance. Give him a shot at playing a full game. Besides, I don't want Werth hitting too often, do you?

One last note: I need to amend my list of offseason bad moves to add the loss of Scott Graham from the broadcasting team. I like him, and it's a shame he is gone, although I won't miss his ice cream commercials. He is a lot of fun as an announcer, whether it's the Phillies or the Big 5. I'll still be putting them in the win column for the Fightin' Phils all season.

Phillies Notes

Alfonseca finally signed his deal at the conclusion of winter ball (look at the sixth finger!). To recap, it's 380k guarenteed, and 700k if he appears on the roster, with incentives up to 1.1 mil. I will not be confident in this team if he is the 8th inning set up guy. At 34, he's a shell of his former self, and only lasted 19 games last season, being shut down with elbow problems and finally deactivated. After putting up a 1.69 ERA through his first 11 appearances, he finished with a 5.63 ERA. He gave up 8 earned runs in his last 5.1 innings. This move was dubbed a low risk, moderate reward signing. The problem is, it's only low risk if this guy pitches well in spring training and surprises people by making the roster. Right now, he's got the most experience in a young bullpen and is a candidate to be the set up guy to Flash. If he makes the team out of spring training, he should be at least 4th on the depth chart behind Madson, Geary, and hopefully a proven guy we get for Lieber.

Speaking of the bullpen, a minor transaction took place recently as the A's sent Kirk Saarloos to the Reds for a 25 yr old AA closer with a decent stuff and a chance to one day crack a major league bullpen as a set up guy. There were players to be named on both sides of this deal. Saarloos is a 5th starter/bullpen arm with average ground ball producing stuff. He won't blow anyone away, nor has great control, instead relying on the defense, especially up the middle, to make outs for him. Now here's the kicker, he only makes 1.2 mil this year. While Gillick has been stockpiling arms, why didn't he take a chance on Saarloos? Once we trade Lieber, we're going to be relying heavily on guys like Eude Brito if a starter gets injured (see Hamels, Eaton). Saarloos would have been a perfect guy to pitch the 6/7th inning, and provide spot starts for injuries. You can never have enough ground ball pitchers at the Bank, either. Unless they are getting a stud back in the "to be named" portion, couldn't we have traded a guy like, say Ryan Cameron (Who? Exactly. Who is David Schafer, the guy traded for Saarloos? Cameron is our AAA closer who projects as a middle bullpen guy and is ranked 42nd on scout.com's Phillies list.) I'd rather pay Saarloos 1.2 mil than Alfonseca 1.1 mil. But maybe Gillick never got wind of his availability. Who knows.

As anxious as I am for the Phils to trade Lieber, I do not want them to give him away. I trust Gillick to "Stand Pat" and wait for the best offer, even if it takes until spring training. If Clemens burns the Yanks, I'd imagine they would take a flier on Lieber, but they don't have much they'd let go from their pen. I would consider Lieber for Farnsworth and a minor prospect. Farnsworth had good years for the Cubbies in '01, '03, and then in '05 split between Detroit and Atlanta when he amassed 16 saves. That puts him on pace to have a good 07, right? But seriously, I would trust him a lot more than Alfonseca, and I would like Geary and Madson a lot more if they both got knocked down a peg on the pecking order.

By the way, I figured this out a while back and shared it with Jeff. In a weird twist of fate...when the Phils signed Lieber from the Yanks, they gave up their first round pick in the following draft. Who did the Yankees draft with that pick? CJ Henry, acquired in the Abreu trade. Funny how things work out. Henry is still only 20 (man I feel old) but he's striking out in a quarter of his ABs (call it the Jimmy Rollins effect), though he did hit .253 while at Lakewood. Even more alarming, he makes an error every other game in the field, with 13 in 25 games at Lakewood and 25 errors in 58 games with Charleston before the trade. The Abreu trade was necessary, and while his salary looks a lot better in the exploded market, Gillick couldn't predict that, and at least we aren't paying any of it.

Stockpiling Arms...Antonio Alfonseca?

The Phillies have signed Antonio Alfonseca to a one year contract, non-guarenteed, at the veteran's minimum with incentives up to $1.1 Mil. Not quite the solid arm we were looking for but what this bullpen lacks in quality, it hopefully makes up for in quantity. In related news, the Phillies avoided arbitration with Ryan Madson by signing him to a one year deal, at $1.1 Mil for one year.

Let's take a look at the Phillies bullpen makeover:

2006 Spring Training:

• Gordon
• Rhodes
• Franklin
• Fultz
• Cormier
• Santana
• Geary

2006 Season's End:

• Gordon
• White
• Castro
• Condrey
• Sanchez
• Madson
• Smith
• Geary
  

2007 Spring Training potential:

• Gordon
• Madson
• Smith
• Geary
  
• Alfonseca
• Garcia
• Warden
• Simon
• Livingston
• Castro
• Brito

Gordon and Geary are the only ones on all three lists, while Madson was a starter going into the Spring last year before returning to the pen. The first 4 spots for this year are most likely set to the first four guys listed. That leaves the final 7 guys to compete for 2 spots assuming they carry the usual 6 guys. They still make pick up another proven reliver from a series of trades beginning with Lieber. From this cast, I'd say that Brito and Livingston are long shots. Castro is an interesting case, and I've heard conflicting reports about whether he will compete for the bullpen or become a starter in AAA Ottawa. That leaves the Rule 5 guys Simon and Warden who both have the stuff to pitch but with makeup and consistency questions, waiver pick up Garcia, and recently acquired Alfonseca, who supposedly dropped 28 pounds and is pitching well in winter ball. The 12 fingered pitcher, formerly of a handful fo teams, known for his Marlins success, is dubbed the Octopus.

It seems every year the Phillies sign a couple second tier relievers for big bucks, who are handed spots in the bullpen, and seemingly stink up the joint (I won't even start with names). This year, they are saving the money, getting a bunch of cheap arms with potential, for an open competition in spring training, and liekly going with the best showings for the '07 pen. I'm all for this, since they can cut most of these guys at little or no cost (what we all wished they could have done with Franklin and Rhodes last season...and there I go naming names).

One mistake they made, in my opinion, was not offering Aaron Fultz arbitration, making him an unrestricted FA. I belive Fultz would have signed elsewhere and netted us 2 picks as he was a Type 1 FA. Even if he accepted arbitration, he is one year removed from his 2.24 ERA year with us (clearly not his norm), but even his 4.54 ERA last year wasn't that bad. I understand we don't want to settle for "not that bad" but my point is that he had value, and ended up with the Indians, along with David Dellucci. And the Indians would still have signed him, even if they had to give up a pick, because their 1st rounder is protected, and Dellucci got bumped to a 3rd rounder because they also signed Roberto Hernandez, who was somehow rated higher than Dellucci. That would have meant they would only have to give up an extra 4th round pick for Fultz, while we would have gotten another sandwich pick. I really think Gillick dropped the ball on the chance to aquire two valuable picks there, or if nothing else, acquire a solid long reliever in the pen for a slightly inflated price.

Spring training should at least be interesting to watch. The last few spots could be wide open for a large cast of guys.