Off Season in Review

Sorry I've been gone for so long - sometimes that long, cold winter really gets to me. But now the sun is still up at 5pm, and we are just four days away from hearing those 4 beautiful words - pitchers and catchers report. That means the first day of spring is just around the corner - the Phils play their first MLB game on March 1 against Detroit. I don't care about your pagan groundhog rituals, your sunworshipping, or the fact that it will probably snow that day - when the Phillies start playing, its Spring. Cue up "Centerfield."

Anyway, although every indication is that Gillick isn't done dealing yet this year, let's take a look at the highlights from the offseason.

Best Moves of the Offseason
1. The Freddy Garcia trade - I don't care that we gave up some pitching potential for one year of a pitcher, this was a great trade and the kind of move we have to make to take it to the next level. Garcia is a top of the rotation winner and will hopefully take some pressure off of Myers (although Myers needs to be the team's ace because he is better than Garcia when he is in shape and throwing fastballs instead of punches).

2. Not giving away Lieber or Rowand - Lieber probably will be traded, and I won't have a problem for that as long as it gets us something good in return. Let's not try the switcheroo where Lieber goes for a decent outfielder and Rowand goes for a reliever - it had better be an All-Star closer who is willing to be the set up man while Gordon's arm stays on his body. Rowand is one of those guys that people who look at stats don't like - he strikes out too much, doesn't walk enough, doesn't have enough power, and isn't fast enough to cover the kind of ground that the A-list centerfielders do. But he plays great defense, fans love him, and players rally around him - he is the kind of guy that championship teams have (see Eckstein, David). And we might need Lieber if we have an injury (which we will).

3. Not signing Alfonso Soriano - yes, Soriano is a beast of a hitter, a base stealing machine, and apparently a pretty good outfielder. He also strikes out 100+ times a year and came with an insane price tag and long term contract that can drown a franchise. He replaces Burrell, and is better, but not enough different to change the make up of the team, except killing us when we sign Howard long term, also. Good non-move there.

Worst Moves of the Offseason
1. Not offering arbitration to Aaron Fultz - what was going to happen, we had to pay $3 million for one year of a reliable reliever? He probably wanted more years and was going to sign elsewhere, so we get a draft pick. If he signs, we get his pitching, which will be pretty solid once again. Don't say I didn't warn you when we make a trade in mid-July for a veteran lefty reliever who makes more money and isn't any more effective than Fultz. Not sure what they were thinking.

2. Signing Adam Eaton - I'll give Gillick the benefit of the doubt in two areas here: a) I thought at the time this was too much money, but it turns out that it is under-market, so good for them, b) I'll assume they didn't know we'd end up with Garcia. I also like the fact that we drafted 3/5 of our starting rotation and 4/8 of our starting lineup (Burrell, Rollins, Howard, Utley). But Eaton isn't that good and you just know he is going to get hurt. I can feel the injury coming, and I put the over-under at June 10.

3. (tie) Signing Wes Helms, Rod Barajas, and Jayson Werth - seriously, Wes Helms, Rod Barajas, and Jayson Werth are going to play for the World Series champions? Whatever. So Taguchi, I guess.

And a special bonus category, Absolute Ridiculous Move Of The Off-Season: $50M for Gary Matthews Jr. Well, maybe the Angels know more than I do, but from here, it looks like no one ever made more off of one catch since Aaron Rowand's plastic surgeon. Matthews hit .313-19-79 last year. Previous career bests were a .275 average, 17 HRs and 55 RBI. The Angels will be his 7th team in 9 years. He is 32. That, my friends, is Absolutely Ridiculous, with a capital A and a capital R.

Stockpiling Arms...Antonio Alfonseca?

The Phillies have signed Antonio Alfonseca to a one year contract, non-guarenteed, at the veteran's minimum with incentives up to $1.1 Mil. Not quite the solid arm we were looking for but what this bullpen lacks in quality, it hopefully makes up for in quantity. In related news, the Phillies avoided arbitration with Ryan Madson by signing him to a one year deal, at $1.1 Mil for one year.

Let's take a look at the Phillies bullpen makeover:

2006 Spring Training:

• Gordon
• Rhodes
• Franklin
• Fultz
• Cormier
• Santana
• Geary

2006 Season's End:

• Gordon
• White
• Castro
• Condrey
• Sanchez
• Madson
• Smith
• Geary
  

2007 Spring Training potential:

• Gordon
• Madson
• Smith
• Geary
  
• Alfonseca
• Garcia
• Warden
• Simon
• Livingston
• Castro
• Brito

Gordon and Geary are the only ones on all three lists, while Madson was a starter going into the Spring last year before returning to the pen. The first 4 spots for this year are most likely set to the first four guys listed. That leaves the final 7 guys to compete for 2 spots assuming they carry the usual 6 guys. They still make pick up another proven reliver from a series of trades beginning with Lieber. From this cast, I'd say that Brito and Livingston are long shots. Castro is an interesting case, and I've heard conflicting reports about whether he will compete for the bullpen or become a starter in AAA Ottawa. That leaves the Rule 5 guys Simon and Warden who both have the stuff to pitch but with makeup and consistency questions, waiver pick up Garcia, and recently acquired Alfonseca, who supposedly dropped 28 pounds and is pitching well in winter ball. The 12 fingered pitcher, formerly of a handful fo teams, known for his Marlins success, is dubbed the Octopus.

It seems every year the Phillies sign a couple second tier relievers for big bucks, who are handed spots in the bullpen, and seemingly stink up the joint (I won't even start with names). This year, they are saving the money, getting a bunch of cheap arms with potential, for an open competition in spring training, and liekly going with the best showings for the '07 pen. I'm all for this, since they can cut most of these guys at little or no cost (what we all wished they could have done with Franklin and Rhodes last season...and there I go naming names).

One mistake they made, in my opinion, was not offering Aaron Fultz arbitration, making him an unrestricted FA. I belive Fultz would have signed elsewhere and netted us 2 picks as he was a Type 1 FA. Even if he accepted arbitration, he is one year removed from his 2.24 ERA year with us (clearly not his norm), but even his 4.54 ERA last year wasn't that bad. I understand we don't want to settle for "not that bad" but my point is that he had value, and ended up with the Indians, along with David Dellucci. And the Indians would still have signed him, even if they had to give up a pick, because their 1st rounder is protected, and Dellucci got bumped to a 3rd rounder because they also signed Roberto Hernandez, who was somehow rated higher than Dellucci. That would have meant they would only have to give up an extra 4th round pick for Fultz, while we would have gotten another sandwich pick. I really think Gillick dropped the ball on the chance to aquire two valuable picks there, or if nothing else, acquire a solid long reliever in the pen for a slightly inflated price.

Spring training should at least be interesting to watch. The last few spots could be wide open for a large cast of guys.