Lieber to the Pen

I'm impartial on Jon Lieber...and I'm saying this is a mistake!

You simply do not take an opening day starter from 2006 and put him in the bullpen to start 2007, barring an injury hindering his abilities. Especially when you are replacing him in the rotation with a free agent signing with a far less reputable career. Last year was Lieber's first season over 4.5 ERA in his last 10 years. That's consistency. Add in the fact that he's usually among the league leaders in walks per 9, and you don't simply demote a guy like that to the bullpen in a heartbeat.

Even if the Phillies have given up on Lieber, which looks to be right given their apparent attempt to trade him, they should still showcase him early in the season for trade value. What does it say to other teams when you don't think the guy is good enough to start for you? Adam Eaton is no Cy Young.

Adam Eaton should have gone to the pen. He's injury prone, and new to the team. He should have to earn his stripes. What does this do to team chemistry when guys like Ryan Howard, who has still yet to earn his payday despite his efforts, sees a guy with a spotty past, come in on a huge paycheck, and get handed a starter job over last season's opening day pitcher?

This doesn't bode well for the team. If this was Manual's decision, it proves he's a moron. Though, I doubt it was all him since he loves veterans, especially players he's gotten to know.

Lieber's career ERA is 4.33, certainly good enough to be a 4th/5th starter in the MLB, especially for this team. Unless there is something going on here below the surface, this move is ill-advised in my mind. The Phillies really need to come out of the gates firing. Lieber was pitching well in Spring Training, and this may simply trip this team up and force them to chase the division through the dog days of summer like years past. I'm disappointed to say the least.

Starting to find relief?

Sorry Pete, we are bringing up the Lieber thing again. I read today that the Phils are now talking about using Lieber or Eaton in the bullpen, since the trade offers for Lieber aren't good. I still think its an injury away from falling into place, but if all our bullpen hopefuls are struggling, this becomes an intriguing, if short term, solution.

The question is: which one? I dont know who has the stuff that is better suited for the bullpen. Lieber is more the workhorse type pitcher, not going to miss starts and going to give you lots of innings. Eaton would be that guy if healthy, although even if they both made 35 starts, I'd wager on Lieber throwing more innings. Lieber gives up more homeruns, but he pitched in the Bank last year as opposed to Eaton in big park San Diego for a few seasons, so it's hard to tell. Neither walks that many guys, and Lieber's walk to strikeout ratio is great.

It isn't a cost issue, because their salaries are about the same. Both have expressed a willingness to do whatever it takes, and to pitch in Philadelphia. But if the Phillies still want to trade Lieber, they probably have to leave him in the rotation. He may pitch well in the pen and show some teams his versitility, but they will sell him as a starter and he will be bought as a starter. Besides, we wouldn't trade him for bullpen help if he was good in the bullpen, unless someone really overwhelmed us with multiple pitchers for Lieber. Eaton, on the other hand, might benefit from the bullpen, if he is as injury prone as I think he is. It hasn't been an endurance issue, but nagging injuries, which might be reduced if he throws fewer pitches per night. Unless you are worried about Lieber's weight, like the whole media seems to be, then maybe not asking him to go out for 7 innings and 110 pitches is for the best.

Probably need a scout to make this call, someone who can evaluate their stuff rather than try to remember what they look like by reading a few superficial stats on the web. What do you think?

Spring Questions

You can keep your pagan sun worshipping - on the Calendar of Jeff, the first day of spring is the first day with a full slate of MLB exhibition games. In 2007, that fell yesterday, March 1 (the Phils lost to Detroit 9-7, and no one cared). It is not as holy a day as the first day of summer or the day pitchers and catchers report, but it is a cause for celebration nonetheless.

We've been pretty quiet during Spring Training so far because, well, there is nothing interesting to talk about. Everyone in Phillies camp is saying and doing the right things - even Mike Schmidt. Without any controversy, any injuries, or any feet inserted into mouths, what are we supposed to talk about? Here are 5 interesting questions to follow during Phillies camp (in no particular order). Although I have no insider knowledge about any of them, this is what I'll be watching for and complaining about for the next month.

1. Whither Jon Lieber?
Probably the biggest question this spring is where Jon Lieber is going. He will pitch for a major league club somewhere in some capacity, and I'm not sure if that is going to be in Philly or not. I can't see any of our 6 starters ending up in the bullpen. Pete has mentioned to me moving Moyer, because he could bounce back into the starting rotation and he throws junk so he can pitch consecutive nights. While that's probably true, he likely won't get enough work doing that. He would have to be used as a mop up guy or a lefty specialist, and end up getting one out per night, and I just don't see that with a guy who throws slower than highway traffic. Myers is a bulldog and could close, but he is a front of the rotation guy.

I see one of two scenarios: 1) Lieber gets dealt during spring training for less than we want back for him, marginally improving the bullpen, or 2) someone on our staff gets a minor injury and Lieber stays around on a 6-man rotation for a month or so, protecting the injured guy and injury prone Hamels and Eaton (or rather, whichever of them wasn't the first one with the injury). Then Lieber gets dealt to some other club with a pitching injury.

2. Who's on 3rd?
More importantly, does it matter? Nunez has the defense, Helms has the power...I lean to Nunez, since we score plenty of runs as it is and could use power on the bench. Of course, that assumes Nunez can manage to raise his average to at least .250.

3. What does the Lieby-less world look like?
I'm actually a Lieberthal fan, but in any case, his era has ended. Ruiz and Barajas are competing for the starting job, but it probably goes to Barajas unless and until he completely struggles. Ruiz will probably catch twice a week anyway. The big question is Chris Coste, who completely deserves a roster spot and can play the corner infield even if he isn't catching. It will be a shame if they don't keep him.

4. Can you throw a 6 seem fastball, and if so, what would it do?
Antonio Alfonseca is going to be our set up man? Really? This bullpen scares me, I'll be honest. If Gordon gets hurt, we have humongous problems. Hopefully he gets injured in a fight with a starter on another club who also happens to have two quality closer candidates, or we have problems.

5. Will Pat Burrell get to play 9 innings?
Burrell has too much talent and too much money to not be given every opportunity to hit 5th, play every day, and play every inning. If you keep taking him out of games when he is already struggling, and his struggles are already in his head, he is just going to put more pressure on himself in the 6th inning when he thinks its his last chance. Give him a shot at playing a full game. Besides, I don't want Werth hitting too often, do you?

One last note: I need to amend my list of offseason bad moves to add the loss of Scott Graham from the broadcasting team. I like him, and it's a shame he is gone, although I won't miss his ice cream commercials. He is a lot of fun as an announcer, whether it's the Phillies or the Big 5. I'll still be putting them in the win column for the Fightin' Phils all season.

Looking Back...the 1997 MLB Amateur Draft

I was thinking about Jeff's comment regarding his preference about keeping Randy Wolf over Jamie Moyer. I decided that since Moyer pitched for us as long as Wolf last season, what about Wolf compared to Adam Eaton, the new old Phillie? I had a feeling they've had similar careers to date, so I did some research. First, the stat lines (click them for bigger font...I can't figure out how to get tables to show up larger):

Wolf

Eaton

As you can see, Wolf has had the slightly more impressive career to date...and he's a lefty. The similarities between the players, however, go past the major league stats.

The facts:

Eaton was drafted in the first round by the Phils in the 1996 draft. Wolf was drafted in 1997 in the second, more on that to follow later.

Aside from similar major league stats, the two had the exact same ERA in the minor leagues, 3.63.

Eaton had more minor league innings (mostly due to rehad stints), and threw to a 30-26 record while Wolf ended his minors career at 20-14.

Both have clearly dealt with injuries in their career, Eaton most recently with his finger, and Wolf with his Tommy John surgery.

Wolf clearly has the rubber arm, throwing over 200 innings 3 times in his career. In Eaton's defense, he did throw 199.1 and 183 in two injury free seasons in San Diego (putting the comment about him never throwing 200 innings in perspective. Wolf threw 210, 206, and 200 even...not exactly blowing away the 200 mark, but reaching it nonetheless).

Both are good hitting pitchers, with almost identical career batting averages. Wolf has the slight edge as a career .194 batter to Eaton's .191.

Their slugging % is nearly identical, with Wolf again the slight leader at .280 to Eaton's .274. This is mostly due to the fact that Wolf has 4 career homers, to Eaton's two.

Wolf is a bit of a freeswinger, though, as Eaton leads the OBP by a huge margin at .270 to .235.

My theory about the Phillies letting Wolf go because they didn't want a pitcher outhitting Nunez over the course of a full season apparently couldn't have been more off with Eaton coming in the door. Maybe they figure he'll be rusty from the AL.

To my surprise, Eaton has actually stolen 5 bases in his career, getting thrown out only once. Wolf has never attempted.

What's this all mean? Well, of course I'd rather have Wolf back. Eaton, however, is nearly as good, when healthy, and the team already has two lefties diminishing the value of Wolf's lefthand (though they probably don't resign Moyer if Wolf stays). So, understanding the health concerns, I'm fine with Eaton as our #4/5. Actually I'm thrilled with it. At the end of the day, he's better and more consistent (even given the injury history) than Ryan Madson and Gavin Floyd, two-fifths of last year's season starting rotation. I understand he was expensive, but if we get two nearly healthy seasons out of him, it has to be considered a positive outcome.

I stand by my word, if we didn't get Eaton and the Garcia trade didn't happen, we would have been in a bidding war for Gil Meche and counting on Lieber not showing up to camp at 280 pounds. I also think we may have had to give up more for Garcia since we clearly would have been getting desperate, and the ChiSox would pitted us against the Mets or someone else. Instead, we had a full rotation already, and realized that they were desperate to get Gio Gonzalez back.

More on the 1997 Draft

Now playing third base for the Philadelphia Phillies: Troy Glaus.

Ok, this obvously isn't true. But do you know when Troy was drafted? Not just in 1997, but with the third pick overall. Right after we took J "D battery in the face" Drew. Can you imagine if the Phillies drafted and retained Glaus instead of Drew? An infield consisting of 4 All-Stars...with everyone just hitting their prime with Glaus only turning 30 this season. Sure he strikes out a lot and isn't known for his defense, but he averages 37 home runs per year. Ah to dream.

One a related note, I get extremely angry everytime I'm reminded that the Phillies had a trade worked out for Hank Blalock, until John Lieber decided to have his worst outing of the year against the Nats, I believe, right before the trade deadline. Blalock coming off a bad season for an overweight Lieber would have been an incredible heist. There would be no Wes Helms or Abe Nunez to worry about. No worrying about Pat Burrell. Manual could flip flop Burrel and Blalock behind Howard based on who was hot. What a nightmare for opposing pitchers!

Back to the former draft pick, known as schmuck. I thank the heavens that he did not win the World Series last year with the Cardinals. I may have to give up on baseball if he wins a ring before our beloveds do.

More on the 1997 draft, the first player taken, Matt Anderson by the Tigers, is out of baseball after a short career with an ERA over 7, proving that nothing is guarenteed. After Glaus was taken 3rd, his current teammate, Vernon Wells was taken 5, followed by Jon Garland at 10, Lance Berkman at 17, and even Adam Kennedy at 20, all players I'd rather have than our short time with Jason "Fisticuffs" Michaels who was our sandwich pick compensation for the schmuck not signing.

Oddly enough, Jayson Werth was taken with the 22nd pick in the first round...as a catcher. After Wolf was taken at 2 in the 2nd round, Scott Linebrink went at #4, a reliever mentioned in the Lieber and Rowand trade talks. Then, Chase Utley went at #76 overall to the Dodgers...as a shortstop. Utley went to UCLA and was drafted by the Phils in the first round in 2000. The Phils next 2 picks in the 1997 draft never went past A ball, and then in round 5 they drafted Derrick Turnbow, another guy mentioned in trade rumors.

Overall, the draft was a complete bust for the Phillies. They only selected one player who made an impact, and he is no longer with the team. A few better choices would have put this team in the playoffs a few times in the last couple years. It's amazing that an entire draft, with 50 rounds, netted the Phillies one major league baseball players. Thank goodness Arbuckle has learned from that debacle.

P.S.
I am a Flyers fan, but the team apparently did not like my credentials, so they are giving me nothing to write about in the first year of this blog. I guess I have to prove my writing skills before they will win again.

On that note, they beat Detroit tonight for a 6-1 win...a score that would have meant a whole lot between about 1998 and 2003. They are utterly terrible, and not yet even rebuilding, though Forsberg will be traded soon to the highest bidder a la Allen Iverson. They will feel the effects of Bobby Clark's "basher mentality" for a long time, however.

Off Season in Review

Sorry I've been gone for so long - sometimes that long, cold winter really gets to me. But now the sun is still up at 5pm, and we are just four days away from hearing those 4 beautiful words - pitchers and catchers report. That means the first day of spring is just around the corner - the Phils play their first MLB game on March 1 against Detroit. I don't care about your pagan groundhog rituals, your sunworshipping, or the fact that it will probably snow that day - when the Phillies start playing, its Spring. Cue up "Centerfield."

Anyway, although every indication is that Gillick isn't done dealing yet this year, let's take a look at the highlights from the offseason.

Best Moves of the Offseason
1. The Freddy Garcia trade - I don't care that we gave up some pitching potential for one year of a pitcher, this was a great trade and the kind of move we have to make to take it to the next level. Garcia is a top of the rotation winner and will hopefully take some pressure off of Myers (although Myers needs to be the team's ace because he is better than Garcia when he is in shape and throwing fastballs instead of punches).

2. Not giving away Lieber or Rowand - Lieber probably will be traded, and I won't have a problem for that as long as it gets us something good in return. Let's not try the switcheroo where Lieber goes for a decent outfielder and Rowand goes for a reliever - it had better be an All-Star closer who is willing to be the set up man while Gordon's arm stays on his body. Rowand is one of those guys that people who look at stats don't like - he strikes out too much, doesn't walk enough, doesn't have enough power, and isn't fast enough to cover the kind of ground that the A-list centerfielders do. But he plays great defense, fans love him, and players rally around him - he is the kind of guy that championship teams have (see Eckstein, David). And we might need Lieber if we have an injury (which we will).

3. Not signing Alfonso Soriano - yes, Soriano is a beast of a hitter, a base stealing machine, and apparently a pretty good outfielder. He also strikes out 100+ times a year and came with an insane price tag and long term contract that can drown a franchise. He replaces Burrell, and is better, but not enough different to change the make up of the team, except killing us when we sign Howard long term, also. Good non-move there.

Worst Moves of the Offseason
1. Not offering arbitration to Aaron Fultz - what was going to happen, we had to pay $3 million for one year of a reliable reliever? He probably wanted more years and was going to sign elsewhere, so we get a draft pick. If he signs, we get his pitching, which will be pretty solid once again. Don't say I didn't warn you when we make a trade in mid-July for a veteran lefty reliever who makes more money and isn't any more effective than Fultz. Not sure what they were thinking.

2. Signing Adam Eaton - I'll give Gillick the benefit of the doubt in two areas here: a) I thought at the time this was too much money, but it turns out that it is under-market, so good for them, b) I'll assume they didn't know we'd end up with Garcia. I also like the fact that we drafted 3/5 of our starting rotation and 4/8 of our starting lineup (Burrell, Rollins, Howard, Utley). But Eaton isn't that good and you just know he is going to get hurt. I can feel the injury coming, and I put the over-under at June 10.

3. (tie) Signing Wes Helms, Rod Barajas, and Jayson Werth - seriously, Wes Helms, Rod Barajas, and Jayson Werth are going to play for the World Series champions? Whatever. So Taguchi, I guess.

And a special bonus category, Absolute Ridiculous Move Of The Off-Season: $50M for Gary Matthews Jr. Well, maybe the Angels know more than I do, but from here, it looks like no one ever made more off of one catch since Aaron Rowand's plastic surgeon. Matthews hit .313-19-79 last year. Previous career bests were a .275 average, 17 HRs and 55 RBI. The Angels will be his 7th team in 9 years. He is 32. That, my friends, is Absolutely Ridiculous, with a capital A and a capital R.