Monday, February 12, 2007

Looking Back...the 1997 MLB Amateur Draft

I was thinking about Jeff's comment regarding his preference about keeping Randy Wolf over Jamie Moyer. I decided that since Moyer pitched for us as long as Wolf last season, what about Wolf compared to Adam Eaton, the new old Phillie? I had a feeling they've had similar careers to date, so I did some research. First, the stat lines (click them for bigger font...I can't figure out how to get tables to show up larger):

Wolf

Eaton

As you can see, Wolf has had the slightly more impressive career to date...and he's a lefty. The similarities between the players, however, go past the major league stats.

The facts:

Eaton was drafted in the first round by the Phils in the 1996 draft. Wolf was drafted in 1997 in the second, more on that to follow later.

Aside from similar major league stats, the two had the exact same ERA in the minor leagues, 3.63.

Eaton had more minor league innings (mostly due to rehad stints), and threw to a 30-26 record while Wolf ended his minors career at 20-14.

Both have clearly dealt with injuries in their career, Eaton most recently with his finger, and Wolf with his Tommy John surgery.

Wolf clearly has the rubber arm, throwing over 200 innings 3 times in his career. In Eaton's defense, he did throw 199.1 and 183 in two injury free seasons in San Diego (putting the comment about him never throwing 200 innings in perspective. Wolf threw 210, 206, and 200 even...not exactly blowing away the 200 mark, but reaching it nonetheless).

Both are good hitting pitchers, with almost identical career batting averages. Wolf has the slight edge as a career .194 batter to Eaton's .191.

Their slugging % is nearly identical, with Wolf again the slight leader at .280 to Eaton's .274. This is mostly due to the fact that Wolf has 4 career homers, to Eaton's two.

Wolf is a bit of a freeswinger, though, as Eaton leads the OBP by a huge margin at .270 to .235.

My theory about the Phillies letting Wolf go because they didn't want a pitcher outhitting Nunez over the course of a full season apparently couldn't have been more off with Eaton coming in the door. Maybe they figure he'll be rusty from the AL.

To my surprise, Eaton has actually stolen 5 bases in his career, getting thrown out only once. Wolf has never attempted.

What's this all mean? Well, of course I'd rather have Wolf back. Eaton, however, is nearly as good, when healthy, and the team already has two lefties diminishing the value of Wolf's lefthand (though they probably don't resign Moyer if Wolf stays). So, understanding the health concerns, I'm fine with Eaton as our #4/5. Actually I'm thrilled with it. At the end of the day, he's better and more consistent (even given the injury history) than Ryan Madson and Gavin Floyd, two-fifths of last year's season starting rotation. I understand he was expensive, but if we get two nearly healthy seasons out of him, it has to be considered a positive outcome.

I stand by my word, if we didn't get Eaton and the Garcia trade didn't happen, we would have been in a bidding war for Gil Meche and counting on Lieber not showing up to camp at 280 pounds. I also think we may have had to give up more for Garcia since we clearly would have been getting desperate, and the ChiSox would pitted us against the Mets or someone else. Instead, we had a full rotation already, and realized that they were desperate to get Gio Gonzalez back.

More on the 1997 Draft

Now playing third base for the Philadelphia Phillies: Troy Glaus.

Ok, this obvously isn't true. But do you know when Troy was drafted? Not just in 1997, but with the third pick overall. Right after we took J "D battery in the face" Drew. Can you imagine if the Phillies drafted and retained Glaus instead of Drew? An infield consisting of 4 All-Stars...with everyone just hitting their prime with Glaus only turning 30 this season. Sure he strikes out a lot and isn't known for his defense, but he averages 37 home runs per year. Ah to dream.

One a related note, I get extremely angry everytime I'm reminded that the Phillies had a trade worked out for Hank Blalock, until John Lieber decided to have his worst outing of the year against the Nats, I believe, right before the trade deadline. Blalock coming off a bad season for an overweight Lieber would have been an incredible heist. There would be no Wes Helms or Abe Nunez to worry about. No worrying about Pat Burrell. Manual could flip flop Burrel and Blalock behind Howard based on who was hot. What a nightmare for opposing pitchers!

Back to the former draft pick, known as schmuck. I thank the heavens that he did not win the World Series last year with the Cardinals. I may have to give up on baseball if he wins a ring before our beloveds do.

More on the 1997 draft, the first player taken, Matt Anderson by the Tigers, is out of baseball after a short career with an ERA over 7, proving that nothing is guarenteed. After Glaus was taken 3rd, his current teammate, Vernon Wells was taken 5, followed by Jon Garland at 10, Lance Berkman at 17, and even Adam Kennedy at 20, all players I'd rather have than our short time with Jason "Fisticuffs" Michaels who was our sandwich pick compensation for the schmuck not signing.

Oddly enough, Jayson Werth was taken with the 22nd pick in the first round...as a catcher. After Wolf was taken at 2 in the 2nd round, Scott Linebrink went at #4, a reliever mentioned in the Lieber and Rowand trade talks. Then, Chase Utley went at #76 overall to the Dodgers...as a shortstop. Utley went to UCLA and was drafted by the Phils in the first round in 2000. The Phils next 2 picks in the 1997 draft never went past A ball, and then in round 5 they drafted Derrick Turnbow, another guy mentioned in trade rumors.

Overall, the draft was a complete bust for the Phillies. They only selected one player who made an impact, and he is no longer with the team. A few better choices would have put this team in the playoffs a few times in the last couple years. It's amazing that an entire draft, with 50 rounds, netted the Phillies one major league baseball players. Thank goodness Arbuckle has learned from that debacle.

P.S.

I am a Flyers fan, but the team apparently did not like my credentials, so they are giving me nothing to write about in the first year of this blog. I guess I have to prove my writing skills before they will win again.

On that note, they beat Detroit tonight for a 6-1 win...a score that would have meant a whole lot between about 1998 and 2003. They are utterly terrible, and not yet even rebuilding, though Forsberg will be traded soon to the highest bidder a la Allen Iverson. They will feel the effects of Bobby Clark's "basher mentality" for a long time, however.

5 comments:

Skeeter said...

They flyers are depressing but tonights game was still awesome to watch.

I agree Eaton can be good when healthy but what are those odds? I pray high but you never know. My guess is at least one 15 day DL trip during the season. And if that's all we have to deal with, I am satisfied.

Drew is a P.O.S.

Jeff said...

I think we probably did not draft Troy Glaus because the 1997 Rookie of the Year was some guy named Scott Rolen...maybe we'd be better off having traded Glaus as a prospect than signing Drew, but we did end up with Burrell since Drew reentered the darft.

Let's talk about Wolf, Eaton, and Moyer for a second. For purposes of this conversation since it all happened before the ChiSox trade, assume the rotation is Myers, Lieber, Hamels, and two of those three guys. The one I want the most out of the 3 is Wolf - he is younger, better, and left handed. He may not be great in '07, but I think he will be again in '08 if not the second half of this year. I would have given him a 3-4 year deal with maybe $8-10M/per. Specifics are unimportant for the conversation.

Eaton comes cheaper, and has similar stats. But 1) he is a righty, 2) he was drafted a year earlier but has a year less in the majors, and 3) he is injury prone. Clearly there is no comparison. Thrown in Moyer, who is fine for a year and maybe two, but he is an old lefty, and do we need "experience" to "help our young pitchers"? I don't know.

I think if I have to pick 2, I'd take Wolf and Eaton, and I surprise myself by saying that. We talk about the Eaton deal as being before the Garcia trade, with intent now to trade Lieber - fine, but then we have injury man and have traded away two of our potential backup starters. The Garcia trade had to be done, of course, but it is interesting the position that leaves us in since we signed Eaton.

But, I'll take a shot with Eaton's health over $11M for Gil Meche.

Anonymous said...

I agree with Jeff about not drafting Glaus because of Rolen --- but what about putting Troy at 1b? Although we all hate JD, he was a great college hitter and that was why he was drafted --- management made the mistake of thinking they could sign him. Btw, wasn't Eric Valent the compensation pick (I believe Jason Michaels was a 4th rd pick)?

Pete said...

Yes, Matt, it was Eric Valent. I got him confused with Michaels.

And Jeff, we didn't necessarily get Burrell because Drew reentered the draft. Even if Drew signed, I don't think that would have deterred us from drafting another power hitting outfielder (especially Burrell, considered one of the greatest college hitters of all time) after finishing last in the league. Especially since our 1997 outfield consisted of Danny Tartabull, Ricky Otero, Gregg Jeffries, Wendel Magee, Rex Hudler, Ruben Amaro Jr. and even Darren Daulton was listed as an outfielder. That was the year before we traded Stocker for Abreu.

Plus, wasn't Burrell drafted as a 3B and moved to left because of Rolen?

I would have loved to have drafted Glaus and have him play first until they lose Rolen.

Jeff said...

If you are going to hate on Ricky Otero, we are going to have problems.