NL East
Mets, Phils, Braves, Marlins, Nats
NL Central
Brewers, Cardinals, Reds, Astros, Cubs, Pirates
NL West
Dodgers, Dbacks, Padres, Rockies, Giants
WC:
Phils
My Picks:
NL
East
Phillies - This isn't strictly a hometown pick. The Phillies weakest area last season was starting pitching. Only 61 of their 85 wins were attributed to starters...nine different pitchers. The Phillies solidified their rotation going into this season. I did rough estimates for each of the starters based on their previous 3-5 years and potential (in Hamels case.) My estimates gave me 68 wins for the starters (the math can be seen at the end of this post.) With the same bullpen (ignoring that more starter wins gives less chances of bullpen wins), my conservative estimates would put the Phillies at 92 wins.
Mets - This team simply has too many holes in their starting pitching to contend with the Phillies. In a key series late in the year between the teams, who are the Mets going to throw that can possibly shut down the Phillies offense? Pedro's career as we know it is over. Glavine is hanging by a few threads to get those last few wins to solify his HOF career. Orlando Hernandez is not the pitcher he once was. And with the young pitchers they will bring to camp, it's difficult to pitch in the Big Apple as it is, let alone as a rookie. This team is good, but not great...last year was their year, and they blew it. I will give them the wild card though...and a first round playoff exit.
Marlins - This will be a shocker as the Fish will beat out the Braves and finish not far behind the Mets. This team had about half of it's young players produce last year. Look for a few other young players to come around, along with the continued development of last year's stars. They had 6 players who got rookie of the year votes, and will have a few more this year. This team is 2 years away from their next World Series appearance, so the Phillies must take their chances now.
Braves - This team improved their bullpen from last season, but lost it's first basemen (who they sold high) and their second basemen (who they sold low). A bullpen can only do so much without a solid pitching staff and good offense. Look for Andruw Jones to be traded when this team is floating below .500 around the deadline.
Nationals - They don't deserve to be mentioned in this post. The non-trade of Soriano last year was a disaster. They didn't give up too much to get him, but letting him go for free was moronic, especially considering he didn't help the team win anything. All 5 rotation spots are up for grabs, since Patterson still needs to prove he's healthy.
Central
Brewers - This division is nearly impossible to predict. And while the Cubs spent all the money, the Brew Crew quietly solidified an underrated team. They have the most balance, with a solid rotation, a very good bullpen, a few rising stars, and a good mix of veterans. I expect this team to come firing out of the gate and open some eyes in April while the Cubs wilt under the pressure. I think this team has the balance and depth to sustain the season.
Cubs - No matter how good the Cubs look on paper, they never seem to figure it out. Soriano's contract was one of the worth of the offseason, and I'm glad it wasn't the Phils behind it. Changing a guy's position for the second straight season is not a great idea. The wildcard for this team has always been Wood and Prior. If the two of them somehow put their careers back together (Wood as a closer), with Zambrano and the offense they've assembled (D Lee is a sleeper going into this year), they will handle the Brewers for the division. But like I said, never bet on the Cubbies.
Cardinals - The world champs will be huge flops. If there ever was a team that needed to do SOMETHING in the offseason following a championship to compete the following season, it was this team of overachievers. Outside of Pujols and Rolen, Edmonds is getting old, and Eckstein will likely come down to earth. There was a reason this team won less games than the Phillies. I am still mad about that.
Reds - This is a decent team, but losing Griffey will not help (what a shame...him and Grant Hill should take up chess). Their rotation is average, and they have a few good youngsters floating around. I think this team is a year away from contending, especially in this division.
Astros - It's the end of an era with Bagwell not coming to camp this year. Biggio overachieved last year. The Lee signing was of desperation, and they will get burned badly in a few years. Bringing back Richard Hidalgo is just stupid. This team has a few good pieces, but simply has too many holes for this division.
Pirates - At least the hockey team is finally playing well. Even with LaRoche, the team will still be last in the league in homers. This team is years and many smart decisions away from contending.
West
Dodgers - The Schmidt and Wolf signings were exactly what this team needed. They will lead with their pitching, and follow with a lineup that got slight upgrades from last season. They do need one of their young outfielders to step up and replace Drew's production.
Padres - Adding Maddux and Wells may backfire if both struggle to stay healthy due to their age. Losing Piazza and Roberts from an already anemic offense will hurt, though I expect a good season from Marcus Giles and a few of the young players. I expect this team to play slightly above average baseball.
Giants - I hate this team. Zito is not as good as advertised, and Bonds will hopefully finish the year in prison (way to drop the ball in that interview Howard. Next time, just say "no comment." Bonds is a lier and a cheater.) Their rotation is decent. But frankly, until this team ditches Bonds, they will not win.
Arizona - This team has a good rotation and will have a few young players trying to break through this season. I like them to challenge the Giant for third place.
Rockies - I like this team a lot more than most last place teams. I think they did the right thing selling high on Jennings. They will take this year to get some of their young talent sorted out, and could make a push late, or simply make some noise next season.
Final Thoughts
My predictions have the Phils starters like this:
Moyer
Last 6 years: 20, 13, 21, 7, 13, 11,
2007: 13
I actually like him more than Lieber or Eaton for the bullpen early in the season if we can't trade Lieber. He's got a rubber arm, throws junk, and would provide some lefty experience in the pen.
Myers
Last 4: 14, 11, 13, 12
2007: 13
I see Myers being a solid #2 for his whole career. He's still young, but I think he's too up and down to be an ace. I think he's good for 12-16 wins for a few years, though.
Eaton
Last 4: 9, 11, 11, 7
2007: 11
Those last two numbers represent shortened seasons. This guy has the stuff to be a very good #3 if he's healthy. I know that's a big if, but I think he gives up more than 20 starts this year, and hits double digit wins.
Hamels:
2007: 16
In his last 90 or so innings, this kid put together 8 wins...stellar for a guy his age. Look for him to double that inning and win total this season.
Garcia
Last 6: 16, 12, 13, 14, 17
2007: 15
I combined two seasons for the 13 win number above (about 10 games and 20 game seasons). He will inherit the ace role, and continue pithing in front of a good offense like the ChiSox. I think this is a low estimate, if his stuff transfers favorably over to the NL, I look for him to get 16-18 wins with his rubber arm.
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