We are one third of the way through March, even though I am close to completing my first season in MLB '07 "The Show," which, if you were considering buying a baseball game this year, definitely buy The Show over 2k7. The 2k series have always been subpar, and even bringing in one of the top guys from the now retired EA MVP series didn't help. Aside from bad gameplay, it supposedly has a ton of bugs, which include batters occasionally standing backwards in the box. The Show plays well, and a new feature allows you to create a rookie and fight your way onto a minor league and pro team, but only having to play your player's events (ABs, pitching, fielding, etc.), which makes the game go quickly. I'll forgive them for the default roster having Werth start over Victorino.
Back to real baseball:
Greg Dobbs will make the Phillies. He is hitting .500 with 5 home runs (2 of which were in "unofficial" games). Even though I don't believe in the need for a "Lefty" bench player (I think someone that hits righties well, like Coste, does the trick), having a guy like Dobbs who can play multiple positions and give you some pop will help this team. Looking over his stats, he has played 1st, 3rd, but also LF and RF in his short career with the Mariners. He had two errors his rookie season at 3rd, and hasn't made an error in limited opportunities since then. Interestingly, he was drafted twice, but eventually signed as a free agent. He refused to sign after being taken in the 52nd round in 96, and again in the 10th round in 99. Somehow his stock plummeted and the Mariners (the team that drafted him in 96) signed him as a minor league FA in 2001. I don't know the story, but it seems to me like a guy who never got his chance, in the Coste mold, but about 5 years younger.
Ryan Madson is adding a slider. Thank goodness. His curveball was worthless last year. More and more, effective bullpen guys need more than a two pitch arsenal. Madson's fastball-changeup combo is above average, but they lose effectiveness when the hitter can sit on one or the other. You almost always need a pitch with movement to keep the hitters off balance, and hopefully he can hone his new slider to at least put it in the back of hitters' minds and throw it once or twice an inning.
Garcia's fastball is slow and flat. Before we raise the white flag, we need to give this evaluation some time. Last season he lost velocity down the stretch, but that was probably due to pitching the entire postseason and then the World Baseball Classic. As a veteran, he is off the hook for the spring, as long as he gets himself ready. He could go out there and throw one pitch in the same location for 3 innings if he wanted. And it's still early, if his fastball is slow and flat in the last week of spring training, then it's time to worry.
Gavin Floyd is getting rocked, but still being fed fake confidence. Let the White Sox deal with it. We are so relieved to be looking from the outside in right about now. He's giving up a run an inning right this spring (I don't care if some are unearned, the error could be on him for all I know). I don't know what else there is to do for him other than have his Mom manage the team and his Dad be his pitching coach. His ego is more delicate than Eaton's finger. By the way, Gio Gonzalez is scoreless in his first 4 innings pitched.
What to do with Lieber. This isn't a serious question until opening day. Someone, including us, will have another starter injury and will be desperate for a guy who can eat all the donuts in the clubhouse. Worse things have happened than entering the season with 6 starters. As long as someone besides Manuel is making the decisions, I'm OK with it. But were' not raising this issue again until April.
How good does it feel to see the Braves and Marlins lose Starting Pitching. I don't know about you, and maybe I'm sadistic, but I was happy to see Hampton and Josh Johnson both go down for a couple months. Couple that with the Nats only having about one pitcher, and the Mets with 3 guys hanging on by a thread, and we have the best pitching staff in the division by far. I do think we are the team to beat, even with a subpar bullpen.
None of the Rule 5s will make the team. Jim Ed Warden and Alfredo Simon have both been hit pretty hard so far. Unless one of these guys goes on fire to finish the spring, I don't think either are options for an already mainly inexperienced bullpen. The catcher may not have had a chance initially, but acquiring Barajas and Werth completely pushed him out of the picture.
Showing posts with label Freddy Garcia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Freddy Garcia. Show all posts
Sunday, March 11, 2007
Sunday, February 11, 2007
Off Season in Review
Sorry I've been gone for so long - sometimes that long, cold winter really gets to me. But now the sun is still up at 5pm, and we are just four days away from hearing those 4 beautiful words - pitchers and catchers report. That means the first day of spring is just around the corner - the Phils play their first MLB game on March 1 against Detroit. I don't care about your pagan groundhog rituals, your sunworshipping, or the fact that it will probably snow that day - when the Phillies start playing, its Spring. Cue up "Centerfield."
Anyway, although every indication is that Gillick isn't done dealing yet this year, let's take a look at the highlights from the offseason.
Best Moves of the Offseason
1. The Freddy Garcia trade - I don't care that we gave up some pitching potential for one year of a pitcher, this was a great trade and the kind of move we have to make to take it to the next level. Garcia is a top of the rotation winner and will hopefully take some pressure off of Myers (although Myers needs to be the team's ace because he is better than Garcia when he is in shape and throwing fastballs instead of punches).
2. Not giving away Lieber or Rowand - Lieber probably will be traded, and I won't have a problem for that as long as it gets us something good in return. Let's not try the switcheroo where Lieber goes for a decent outfielder and Rowand goes for a reliever - it had better be an All-Star closer who is willing to be the set up man while Gordon's arm stays on his body. Rowand is one of those guys that people who look at stats don't like - he strikes out too much, doesn't walk enough, doesn't have enough power, and isn't fast enough to cover the kind of ground that the A-list centerfielders do. But he plays great defense, fans love him, and players rally around him - he is the kind of guy that championship teams have (see Eckstein, David). And we might need Lieber if we have an injury (which we will).
3. Not signing Alfonso Soriano - yes, Soriano is a beast of a hitter, a base stealing machine, and apparently a pretty good outfielder. He also strikes out 100+ times a year and came with an insane price tag and long term contract that can drown a franchise. He replaces Burrell, and is better, but not enough different to change the make up of the team, except killing us when we sign Howard long term, also. Good non-move there.
Worst Moves of the Offseason
1. Not offering arbitration to Aaron Fultz - what was going to happen, we had to pay $3 million for one year of a reliable reliever? He probably wanted more years and was going to sign elsewhere, so we get a draft pick. If he signs, we get his pitching, which will be pretty solid once again. Don't say I didn't warn you when we make a trade in mid-July for a veteran lefty reliever who makes more money and isn't any more effective than Fultz. Not sure what they were thinking.
2. Signing Adam Eaton - I'll give Gillick the benefit of the doubt in two areas here: a) I thought at the time this was too much money, but it turns out that it is under-market, so good for them, b) I'll assume they didn't know we'd end up with Garcia. I also like the fact that we drafted 3/5 of our starting rotation and 4/8 of our starting lineup (Burrell, Rollins, Howard, Utley). But Eaton isn't that good and you just know he is going to get hurt. I can feel the injury coming, and I put the over-under at June 10.
3. (tie) Signing Wes Helms, Rod Barajas, and Jayson Werth - seriously, Wes Helms, Rod Barajas, and Jayson Werth are going to play for the World Series champions? Whatever. So Taguchi, I guess.
And a special bonus category, Absolute Ridiculous Move Of The Off-Season: $50M for Gary Matthews Jr. Well, maybe the Angels know more than I do, but from here, it looks like no one ever made more off of one catch since Aaron Rowand's plastic surgeon. Matthews hit .313-19-79 last year. Previous career bests were a .275 average, 17 HRs and 55 RBI. The Angels will be his 7th team in 9 years. He is 32. That, my friends, is Absolutely Ridiculous, with a capital A and a capital R.
Anyway, although every indication is that Gillick isn't done dealing yet this year, let's take a look at the highlights from the offseason.
Best Moves of the Offseason
1. The Freddy Garcia trade - I don't care that we gave up some pitching potential for one year of a pitcher, this was a great trade and the kind of move we have to make to take it to the next level. Garcia is a top of the rotation winner and will hopefully take some pressure off of Myers (although Myers needs to be the team's ace because he is better than Garcia when he is in shape and throwing fastballs instead of punches).
2. Not giving away Lieber or Rowand - Lieber probably will be traded, and I won't have a problem for that as long as it gets us something good in return. Let's not try the switcheroo where Lieber goes for a decent outfielder and Rowand goes for a reliever - it had better be an All-Star closer who is willing to be the set up man while Gordon's arm stays on his body. Rowand is one of those guys that people who look at stats don't like - he strikes out too much, doesn't walk enough, doesn't have enough power, and isn't fast enough to cover the kind of ground that the A-list centerfielders do. But he plays great defense, fans love him, and players rally around him - he is the kind of guy that championship teams have (see Eckstein, David). And we might need Lieber if we have an injury (which we will).
3. Not signing Alfonso Soriano - yes, Soriano is a beast of a hitter, a base stealing machine, and apparently a pretty good outfielder. He also strikes out 100+ times a year and came with an insane price tag and long term contract that can drown a franchise. He replaces Burrell, and is better, but not enough different to change the make up of the team, except killing us when we sign Howard long term, also. Good non-move there.
Worst Moves of the Offseason
1. Not offering arbitration to Aaron Fultz - what was going to happen, we had to pay $3 million for one year of a reliable reliever? He probably wanted more years and was going to sign elsewhere, so we get a draft pick. If he signs, we get his pitching, which will be pretty solid once again. Don't say I didn't warn you when we make a trade in mid-July for a veteran lefty reliever who makes more money and isn't any more effective than Fultz. Not sure what they were thinking.
2. Signing Adam Eaton - I'll give Gillick the benefit of the doubt in two areas here: a) I thought at the time this was too much money, but it turns out that it is under-market, so good for them, b) I'll assume they didn't know we'd end up with Garcia. I also like the fact that we drafted 3/5 of our starting rotation and 4/8 of our starting lineup (Burrell, Rollins, Howard, Utley). But Eaton isn't that good and you just know he is going to get hurt. I can feel the injury coming, and I put the over-under at June 10.
3. (tie) Signing Wes Helms, Rod Barajas, and Jayson Werth - seriously, Wes Helms, Rod Barajas, and Jayson Werth are going to play for the World Series champions? Whatever. So Taguchi, I guess.
And a special bonus category, Absolute Ridiculous Move Of The Off-Season: $50M for Gary Matthews Jr. Well, maybe the Angels know more than I do, but from here, it looks like no one ever made more off of one catch since Aaron Rowand's plastic surgeon. Matthews hit .313-19-79 last year. Previous career bests were a .275 average, 17 HRs and 55 RBI. The Angels will be his 7th team in 9 years. He is 32. That, my friends, is Absolutely Ridiculous, with a capital A and a capital R.
Sunday, December 10, 2006
Garcia trade was good, not great
Let's get this out of the way from the top: Freddy Garcia is not an ace, and he is not the answer. However, the Phillies are better a better team with him, and in a better trading position after making the deal. So let's give some credit to Pat Gillick.
A lot of fans are complaining about this deal. Of course, a lot of fans complain because they think that it is their job, or that they have to maintain that Philly sports fan image. So let's get the negatives out of the way:
1) Gavin Floyd's potential. He is only 24, some pitchers put it together late, and he's got great stuff that a lot of the organization did not want to lose.
2) Gio Gonzalez is going to be really good. The White Sox hated losing him, the Phillies hated losing him, and everyone who sees him is impressed with him. Plus he's only 21.
3) Some of Garcia's peripheral stats aren't beautiful (all 2006 numbers for CWS): a 4.53 ERA, and 40! bases stolen against. Really, these numbers aren't bad, but the problem is that they've been getting worse over the last few years (as have the WHIP, K/9, and K/BB numbers), which is a bad sign for a guy who is 30. And they aren't the numbers of an ace.
4) Garcia has one year left on his contract.
In reality, though, this was a good move.
1) Floyd has a lot of potential. So did Madson as a starter. So did Brandon Duckworth. These things are not sure fire hits, especially when they have struggled at all levels for two seasons.
2) Gonzalez is closer to a sure fire hit, but remember when Floyd was completely untradeable? What the hell is Duckworth doing these days? Anyone remember how upset people were when the Phils traded a hot prospect to the Padres for Andy Ashby? That was Adam Eaton.
Besides that, we got Gonzalez from the ChiSox in the first place. Put the two trades together, and we got Rowand and Garcia (plus Fabio "don't call me Fidel" Castro by way of Texas for Daniel Haigwood) for Floyd and Thome. Thome is a hero, and had a great season...but Ryan Howard was the MVP and, frankly, is a beast. Gonzalez is a null value in the two deals.
3) Like I said, Garcia's stats are pretty good, putting him in the top 25 of AL starters last year. And they figure to improve given that he is moving to the NL and in a contract year. 18 of 33 Garcia starts were Quality Starts, or 55%. You'd like to see that number improve, but only Myers was better on the Phils last year. And guess what? Myers is your ace, whether you like it or not.
4) Garcia having one year left on the contract is a problem. You just can't say that he isn't good and that it is bad he is only here for one year - pick one. I choose that I wish he had a longer deal, but maybe we can sign him, and maybe we can sign someone else. But the big thing he does for us is allow us to trade Lieber (or go back in time and not sign Eaton?). I don't have a problem with Liber staying, but the team still has holes in the bullpen, and with no quality and cheap pitching out there, we should be able to make a good deal.
Look, it isn't a perfect trade. And I'm not sold on Gillick, because I don't agree with Wes Helms or Adam Eaton. But Garcia is a good picther who will be a great upgrade over last year's rotation; view the trade as a companion to the Thome deal, and all we gave up was Floyd; and remember that it gives us the room to manuever to trade a starter for the other problems with the club. Overall, it is a good trade, and shows that Gillick is willing to take a risk for the team. Before you jump on this trade, think of how badly you would be all over Gillick for doing nothing with the rotation all winter. It's a good deal.
A lot of fans are complaining about this deal. Of course, a lot of fans complain because they think that it is their job, or that they have to maintain that Philly sports fan image. So let's get the negatives out of the way:
1) Gavin Floyd's potential. He is only 24, some pitchers put it together late, and he's got great stuff that a lot of the organization did not want to lose.
2) Gio Gonzalez is going to be really good. The White Sox hated losing him, the Phillies hated losing him, and everyone who sees him is impressed with him. Plus he's only 21.
3) Some of Garcia's peripheral stats aren't beautiful (all 2006 numbers for CWS): a 4.53 ERA, and 40! bases stolen against. Really, these numbers aren't bad, but the problem is that they've been getting worse over the last few years (as have the WHIP, K/9, and K/BB numbers), which is a bad sign for a guy who is 30. And they aren't the numbers of an ace.
4) Garcia has one year left on his contract.
In reality, though, this was a good move.
1) Floyd has a lot of potential. So did Madson as a starter. So did Brandon Duckworth. These things are not sure fire hits, especially when they have struggled at all levels for two seasons.
2) Gonzalez is closer to a sure fire hit, but remember when Floyd was completely untradeable? What the hell is Duckworth doing these days? Anyone remember how upset people were when the Phils traded a hot prospect to the Padres for Andy Ashby? That was Adam Eaton.
Besides that, we got Gonzalez from the ChiSox in the first place. Put the two trades together, and we got Rowand and Garcia (plus Fabio "don't call me Fidel" Castro by way of Texas for Daniel Haigwood) for Floyd and Thome. Thome is a hero, and had a great season...but Ryan Howard was the MVP and, frankly, is a beast. Gonzalez is a null value in the two deals.
3) Like I said, Garcia's stats are pretty good, putting him in the top 25 of AL starters last year. And they figure to improve given that he is moving to the NL and in a contract year. 18 of 33 Garcia starts were Quality Starts, or 55%. You'd like to see that number improve, but only Myers was better on the Phils last year. And guess what? Myers is your ace, whether you like it or not.
4) Garcia having one year left on the contract is a problem. You just can't say that he isn't good and that it is bad he is only here for one year - pick one. I choose that I wish he had a longer deal, but maybe we can sign him, and maybe we can sign someone else. But the big thing he does for us is allow us to trade Lieber (or go back in time and not sign Eaton?). I don't have a problem with Liber staying, but the team still has holes in the bullpen, and with no quality and cheap pitching out there, we should be able to make a good deal.
Look, it isn't a perfect trade. And I'm not sold on Gillick, because I don't agree with Wes Helms or Adam Eaton. But Garcia is a good picther who will be a great upgrade over last year's rotation; view the trade as a companion to the Thome deal, and all we gave up was Floyd; and remember that it gives us the room to manuever to trade a starter for the other problems with the club. Overall, it is a good trade, and shows that Gillick is willing to take a risk for the team. Before you jump on this trade, think of how badly you would be all over Gillick for doing nothing with the rotation all winter. It's a good deal.
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