Sunday, February 11, 2007

Off Season in Review

Sorry I've been gone for so long - sometimes that long, cold winter really gets to me. But now the sun is still up at 5pm, and we are just four days away from hearing those 4 beautiful words - pitchers and catchers report. That means the first day of spring is just around the corner - the Phils play their first MLB game on March 1 against Detroit. I don't care about your pagan groundhog rituals, your sunworshipping, or the fact that it will probably snow that day - when the Phillies start playing, its Spring. Cue up "Centerfield."

Anyway, although every indication is that Gillick isn't done dealing yet this year, let's take a look at the highlights from the offseason.

Best Moves of the Offseason
1. The Freddy Garcia trade - I don't care that we gave up some pitching potential for one year of a pitcher, this was a great trade and the kind of move we have to make to take it to the next level. Garcia is a top of the rotation winner and will hopefully take some pressure off of Myers (although Myers needs to be the team's ace because he is better than Garcia when he is in shape and throwing fastballs instead of punches).

2. Not giving away Lieber or Rowand - Lieber probably will be traded, and I won't have a problem for that as long as it gets us something good in return. Let's not try the switcheroo where Lieber goes for a decent outfielder and Rowand goes for a reliever - it had better be an All-Star closer who is willing to be the set up man while Gordon's arm stays on his body. Rowand is one of those guys that people who look at stats don't like - he strikes out too much, doesn't walk enough, doesn't have enough power, and isn't fast enough to cover the kind of ground that the A-list centerfielders do. But he plays great defense, fans love him, and players rally around him - he is the kind of guy that championship teams have (see Eckstein, David). And we might need Lieber if we have an injury (which we will).

3. Not signing Alfonso Soriano - yes, Soriano is a beast of a hitter, a base stealing machine, and apparently a pretty good outfielder. He also strikes out 100+ times a year and came with an insane price tag and long term contract that can drown a franchise. He replaces Burrell, and is better, but not enough different to change the make up of the team, except killing us when we sign Howard long term, also. Good non-move there.

Worst Moves of the Offseason
1. Not offering arbitration to Aaron Fultz - what was going to happen, we had to pay $3 million for one year of a reliable reliever? He probably wanted more years and was going to sign elsewhere, so we get a draft pick. If he signs, we get his pitching, which will be pretty solid once again. Don't say I didn't warn you when we make a trade in mid-July for a veteran lefty reliever who makes more money and isn't any more effective than Fultz. Not sure what they were thinking.

2. Signing Adam Eaton - I'll give Gillick the benefit of the doubt in two areas here: a) I thought at the time this was too much money, but it turns out that it is under-market, so good for them, b) I'll assume they didn't know we'd end up with Garcia. I also like the fact that we drafted 3/5 of our starting rotation and 4/8 of our starting lineup (Burrell, Rollins, Howard, Utley). But Eaton isn't that good and you just know he is going to get hurt. I can feel the injury coming, and I put the over-under at June 10.

3. (tie) Signing Wes Helms, Rod Barajas, and Jayson Werth - seriously, Wes Helms, Rod Barajas, and Jayson Werth are going to play for the World Series champions? Whatever. So Taguchi, I guess.

And a special bonus category, Absolute Ridiculous Move Of The Off-Season: $50M for Gary Matthews Jr. Well, maybe the Angels know more than I do, but from here, it looks like no one ever made more off of one catch since Aaron Rowand's plastic surgeon. Matthews hit .313-19-79 last year. Previous career bests were a .275 average, 17 HRs and 55 RBI. The Angels will be his 7th team in 9 years. He is 32. That, my friends, is Absolutely Ridiculous, with a capital A and a capital R.

5 comments:

Pete said...

Welcome back!

Good analysis, though I think you're being a little hard on Eaton. Health aside, I think he can be a capable 3 or 4. Hell, he was nearly a ace for Texas two years ago. If he's healthy, I think he makes the team better and don't mind the signing. Whether it's worth the risk is another story.

I still can't get over the Matthews thing. I don't care what anyone says about him suring up centerfield, it's a bad signing.

Skeeter said...

The Matthews signing made me violently ill. Helms, unfortunately, plays crap defense which will hurt us. Eaton is VERY scary...not in a good way.

Overall, my favorite offseason move was the non-trade of Burrell. Not sure how you boys feel about him but I love him. We wouldn't have gotten equal return if he was traded and we need Burrell's power in the lineup.

Moyer also was a VERY nice signing. Good length and price.

Nice post.

GM-Carson said...

Eaton was a bad signing, we should have just kept Lieber as the 5th starter (which still may happen I guess).

The Helms deal isn't as bad as you suggest. Considering the alternative at 3rd (No-Hit Nunez), I'd rather have Helms.

I did a piece on my MoreHardBall blog about crazy offseason deals, and marked the Matthews' signing as the worst.

Jeff said...

Eaton will be a fine pitcher, if he is healthy, and I just don't think he will be healthy. That said, I was sort of struggling to find bad moves the Phils made, so let's be happy that Eaton and Helms are the worst things we did. Helms may be better than Nunez, but come on, it's Wes Helms.

Non-trade of Burrell was a good move, because you're right, we wouldn't get equal value. I'd probably rank that as #4 - Moyer was eh, I'd rather have Wolf I think.

Pete said...

Carson, the plan WAS to keep Lieber as the 5th starter, in addition to Eaton. Remember the signing was before the Garcia trade. We HAD to do it. If the Garcia trade fell through, we may have been the ones to sign Gil Meche for 11 Mil a year if we didn't sign Eaton first. Can you imagine a rotation of Moyer, Hamels, Meche, Myers, and Lieber? THAT makes me sick. We would all be riding Gillick for not making a move sooner if he didn't get Eaton or Garcia, and was left to pick from the remaining crap.

Remember, too much starting pitching is the best problem to have in baseball. Gillick was simply brilliant.