REWORKING THE BENCH: MARCUS GILES?

The Phillies bench depth last year is what allowed them to continue their incredible offensive production despite injuries to Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Shane Victorino, and an ever aching Pat Burrell. While some bench players didn't provide the force initially hoped for (Abe Nunez, Wes Helms and Rod Barajas) guys like Greg Dobbs, Jayson Werth, Michael Bourn, Chris Coste, and Tadahito Iguchi carried this team through some rough stretches of the season.

The team will bring back Werth and Dobbs as utility/spot start players, and I believe we own Werth's arb rights until 2010 and Dobbs' until 2011. Bourn I would like to see traded if the team can resign Rowand, which will hopefully net pitching help...far more important than a 4th/5th outfielder, though if not we own his rights until 2012. Werth is too valuable of a pinch hitter to use exclusively as a defensive replacement for Burrell, but the Phils should be able to find someone cheap for that role, or stomach Chris Roberson for the time being. Coste should be retained, and after the failed Barajas experience, keep Coste as the veteran catcher to mentor and provide insurance for Ruiz and Jason Jamarillo, while also using him to pinch hit and play the variety or other positions he's made career of. I believe Helms will be traded if the Phils acquire a starting 3b, which should leave one or two spots open.

Iguchi can opt out of his contract (which means we can't offer him arbitration and get draft picks...which is why the ChiSox traded him for Dubee's kid) and will look for a starting 2b spot somewhere else, which he's earned. I just caught news that Marcus Giles has been granted an unconditional release by the Padres. I think the Phillies should at least take a look at him as a 29 year old career .277 coming off a few bad years looking to revive his career and likely to accept a low paying bench role. The Braves seemed to be genius (as usual) to get rid of him when they did. This is a guy, however, who hit .316, .311, .291 before falling to .262 and then dropping off completely this year. If he's playing well, he's a staple at the top of the lineup, good for 40 doubles, 15 homers, and 15 steals. He's very comparable offensively to Aaron Rowand: solid but not spectacular numbers, but strikes out too much and doesn't walk enough to justify lack of power production, so value hinges heavily on batting average.

The Rowand-Giles Offensive Production by batting average chart:
> .330 = Incredible
> .300 = Great
> .270 = Good
< .270 = Bad
< .240 = Cut (apparently)

To put it in perspective, here's the Howard-Burrell Offensive Production by batting average chart:
> .300 = Incredible
> .280 = Great
> .260 = Good
> .240 = Acceptable (Adam Dunn anyone?)
< .240 = Bad

Marcus Giles has steadily improved his defense at 2b, cutting down to 7 errors in 112 games last season. I think he would be an effective low risk, high reward signing for this team. He provides a solid, experienced back up should Utley get hurt at all, and also a back up for Ryan Howard as Utley can shift to first if the big fella goes on the DL for an extended period. I would guess Giles doesn't have the arm or range to play SS or 3b, though the Braves did play him at third for 9 games over the seasons he was there, so he could potentially enter the 3b mix.

I understand I'm spending a lot of time on a player who hit .229 this season and was cut from the very team his brother plays on, but it's signings like these that make or break your season. Our All-Star lineup gets the headlines, but without Iguchi, Dobbs and Werth we are a sub .500 team last year, plain and simple. When starters were injured or unproductive, these guys stepped in to not only match production, but in some cases exceed it. That's what got this team to the postseason. These three guys were as important collectively as Jimmy Rollins was to this team.

I would like the Phils to take a waiver on this guy and check his recent medical condition as well as ask about steriod use...the guy hit 21 home runs in 2003 with a SLG% .065 higher than any other year, and he's the size of Ozzie Smith (I think baseball's gotten to a point where every contract should have a clause that says "Have you ever taken steroids?" "If yes, please explain" and "This contract is void should if it be found that player lied on the previous question or begins to take steroids under this contract"). Coming out of that negative light, I think he'd be an excellent addition to the team, the signing would fly under the radar, but he'd be there when we needed him most.

SOLVING A CROWDED OUTFIELD: RESIGN ROWAND

Aaron Rowand is a very good baseball player, but that's only 50% of what Aaron Rowand brings to this team. He is gritty, a Philly style player, with heart, but that still only adds another 30% to what he brings. Aaron Rowand is glue that brings this team together, that's the last 20, and often unnoticed, percent that he brings to this team and city.

Aaron Rowand is the captain of the outfield. He is a leader on the bench and the clubhouse. He puts together team gatherings, barbeques and genuinely gels this team. Aaron Rowand bleeds intangibles, things not seen on the stat sheet or necessarily during the game, but contributes to the success of the franchise. That's why I've decided after some debate, we need to resign him at nearly any cost, he's priceless.

I'm not going to acknowledge the outrageous demand that Rowand supposedly made regarding his value. It did not come from a confirmed source, and there are too many reporters fabricating stories during a slow time (outside of Colorado, Boston and Cleveland) leading into the offseason. I don't believe Rowand is the type of guy to make those demands, so I will be objectively discussing his value here.

Like everyone, I hesitate to give Rowand a long term deal. He is, however, only 30, and despite the constant running into things, we're talking about a baseball, not football player. I believe Rowand could have 3 more years left of his prime. He'll start to lose a step in the outfield, but he's a smart player, so he'll adjust his play to suit his strengths.

Offensively, Rowand is a very good hitter. Last year was a career year, but it wasn't extraordinary by Rowand's standards as he's been consistently effective, especially over the last 4 years. He sports a career average of .286, .289 over the last 4 years. He has averaged 22 home runs (in a 162 game season) over the last 4 years. His strike outs are a tick high for the power he delivers, but he also brings smart baserunning and averaged 14 stolen bases (in a 162 game season) over the last 4 years. He answered questions about his durability this season playing in 161 games.

I think Gillick should stretch far to retain Rowand, if it takes 5 years, go ahead. I'd rather give him more money than years, but I don't think 5 years is too long for a consistent guy like Rowand. While we pay Burrell $14 Mil a year, I think getting Rowand for anything less is a discount. I'd offer him 4/$40, and be prepared to move up to 5/$60. I simply don't think the presence that Rowand brings to this team can be overstated.

The Rest of the Outfield

Shane Victorino and Michael Bourn are very good, young outfielders who deserve a chance to play everyday. I really like Victorino in right field, and I think he should patrol there for the next few years. He covers ground like a centerfielder, and has one of the best arms out there. Any loss in power offensively is more than made up for with Rowand, Burrell, and our infield. Actually, it's contact hitters that don't strike out, like Victorino, that this team needs to gain some consistency in the lineup. Victorino struck out 116 times...over the last two years. His stolen base threat really make his an asset to this team. He also managed 12 home runs in only 131 games, making him no pushover.

Michael Bourn is an interesting case. If we resign Rowand, I think we should trade Bourn for maximum value for a pitcher. The league is high on his potential, but he hasn't yet proved himself at the major league level. Crossing sports, he reminds me of AJ Feely when the Eagles maximized his value for a 2nd round pick. Bourn may mature into a great centerfielder for another team, but the Phillies have no less than 3 carbon copies of him in the minors that will be ready long before Rowand moves on. And because you essentially have two centerfielders starting, the 4th outfielder only needs to be able to play the corners.

Pat Burrell makes another interesting case. He's turned his career around and has repeatedly professed his desire to play in Philadelphia. If Burrell leaves after this year, ideally I would move Rowand to left and Victorino to center and replace Burrell with a rightfielder. Burrell brings a great OBP and good power, still with a plus arm despite his limited range. At this point, I'm comfortable with all three options with Burrell, trade him now or during next season, offer him arbitration to get draft picks or one more season with him after this year, or resigning him to a discounted deal without a no trade clause, maybe 3/$24.

The Phillies have a few outfield prospects in the system, along with some very infield prospects who could potentially shift to the outfield if Rollins and Utley stay healthy. I think Rowand, Victorino and Burrell give the Phillies an above average outfield, with the Phils hopefully bringing back Werth to be the 4th outfielder again.

SOLVING THIRD: DO NOT SIGN LOWELL

I still don't understand how the public at large can form such strong, yet naive opinions based off of media coverage and recent history.

The FACTS:

• Mike Lowell is a good, not great baseball player.
  
• He's coming off a career year.
• He will be 33 when next season starts.
  
• No one wanted him a few years back when he was coming off a horrid year in Floridia.

Mike Lowell is not a great baseball player. I reserve the term great for players who play at a higher level than the rest of the league, year in, year out. Players like Jeter, Pujols, and now Howard is entering that mix. Pujols may be the most consistent player to ever pick up a bat. Howard had an off year by his measure, slumped bad in April, and still hit 47 home runs with 136 RBIs. How soon we forget that Lowell hit .238 (.298 OBP) in 2005 with 8 home runs and 58 RBIs in 150 games. Everyone is allowed to slump, but those numbers are simply atrocious. Even when Burrell had his worst season ever, when he hit .209, his OBS (.309), homers (21), RBIs (64) were all higher. And, admittedly I'm a Burrell guy, but did anyone ever noticed that the big guy legged out 4 triples that year (double his career high), meaning he was coming out of the box hard every AB and trying to earn that big paycheck he just signed?

Two full seasons ago, Mike Lowell was one of the worst third basemen in the league. Let that sink in a moment. The guy will be 33 when next year starts, warranting him about a 2, max 3 year deal. His average this year was a full 31 points higher than any other year of his career. His 120 RBIs were 40 more than last year with the same Boston hitters around him. He's only ever hit more than 30 home runs once, in 2003, and I hate to start playing this game, but the numbers to me, objectively, look like they could be performance enhancement induced. He never hit more than 24 homers previously, and never more than 27 since, but he managed 32 in only 130 games? His ABs per HR that season was 15.4, to a career 25.7 and 28 last year. Sometime to question, if nothing else.

There are positives to Lowell, and I'll note some here. He doesn't K a lot, as he's a contact hitter. Lowell's career high for strikeouts is 92, and he's consistently in the 60s and 70s. The Phillies lineup strikes out way too much, which makes them susceptible to offensive droughts, none more important than the lack of offensive production in the Rockies series. They need to add at least one bat to the middle of the lineup between Utley, Howard, Burrell and Rowand, that doesn't strike out 100+ (199 for Howard) in a season. Lowell also still plays a good 3b. That's important, as they try to bring ground ball pitchers to CBP, Moyer is still pitching another year, and Pat Burrell will be in left.

The VERDICT:
Offer him a 2 year, 22 Million dollar deal, with a club option for the 3rd with a nice buyout.

The market will clearly out price the Phils, but that's fine with me. Costanzo had another great year and looks like he'll be ready for a September call up possibly next year, an invitation to Spring Training the following, and joining the team for good in 2009 or 2010 at the latest. I'm guessing that Lowell has seen his best years, and I'm not convinced he won't relapse into his 2005 form, if even just for a half season. People simply don't get the buy low, sell high theory. The Red Sox stole Lowell as part of the Beckett trade a few years back. Now, every team will be in the mix for him as he just came off an MVP year.

I think the Phillies best options are to look at acquiring Hank Blalock, Miguel Tejada (assuming he will play 3rd), and Scott Rolen via trade. Blalock and Tejada both have 2 years on their deals and Rolen I believe has 3. This would give the Phils a proven veteran at third, with production and leadership they haven't seen since Rolen, himself. It will allow Costanzo time to progress, and send him a statement that says, "you're the future, kid." What it will take to acquire these players is beyond me. But if the Phils resign Rowand (which I strongly believe they should, but will go there in another post), I think Bourn makes a good trading chip, since there are 4 speedy outfielders in the minors (Greg Golson, D'Arby Myers, Dominic Brown and Quintin Berry) who at least 1 will be ready to go before Rowand (with new deal) or Victorino would be off the team.