Jeff's NL Predictions

NL East
1. Mets
2. Phillies
3. Braves
4. Marlins
5. Nationals
Pedro, Manuel, and deep July pockets make the difference. Both teams have questions, and they were 11 wins apart last year - did the Mets get 5 games worse, and did the Phillies get 5 games better? I don't know that either of those things are true. It will be close, but we'll be on the wrong side.

NL Central
1. Cardinals
2. Brewers
3. Cubs
4. Astros (I'm assuming no Clemens)
5. Reds
6. Pirates
St. Louis has to be dethroned before I take someone else here. They have to be healthier this season, and I think the pitching will still be good. The Brewers move up based on pitching, but Pujols can carry the Cardinals offense, and the Brewers are young. Maybe I'm a sucker, but I think the Cubs are a lot better, and the Astros did not get better by losing Pettite and probably Clemens. This is a tough division to finish and 1-4 could be completely flipped without surprising anyone, unless the Cubs ended up on top, because come on, it's the Cubs.

NL West
1. Dodgers
2. Giants (counting on Bonds to stay out of injuries and indictment)
3. Padres
4. Diamondbacks
5. Rockies
Why do people think Arizona will be good? Their most experienced regular is Eric Byrnes. No one on their team has 100 career home runs. Their closer was demoted last season. Maybe they are this year's 2006 Marlins, but that's probably just wishful thinking. Randy Johnson definitely won't pitch like he did last time he was in Arizona, but I don't think he is done either.

Wild Card - Phils. I smell an August surge again, just not from as far behind this time.

I have lost the ability to look at this season objectively. By picking the Phillies second, I might be downplaying their talent and their upgrade from last year just because I don't want to overhype them with my fandom. But I may also be disrespecting the Marlins' young talent or the Braves' strength and off-season changes. So I can't pick the Phils to win the division....but I'm not sold on a second place team anywhere else. Maybe the Brewers, who lots of people have winning the Central, are good enough to beat up on a weaker division and take the wild card from the teams bruised in NL East battles, but I don't buy it. So I'll take the Phillies to surge late, win the wild card, and run the table in the playoffs.

I mean, I can't pick them to lose to the Mets, right? So screw that, screw objectivity - Philles 4 games to 2 over Detroit in October. I might be wrong, but if someone else wins, what's the fun in being right?

Jeff's AL Predictions

AL East
1. Yankees
2. Red Sox
3. Blue Jays
4. Devil Rays (yeah, I know)
5. Orioles
The Red Sox finished in 3rd last year and added J.D. Drew...I can't pick them to win the division.

AL Central
1. Tigers
2. Twins
3. Indians
4. White Sox
5. Royals
Wow, what a deep divsion. My 4th place team could win and it wouldn't be much of an upset. However, I don't buy the Indians like Buster Olney...I'm just hoping they are good enough to make my wild card pick right.

AL West
1. A's
2. Angels
3. Mariners
4. Rangers
Texas, by the way, has a quite impressive cast of former Phillies - Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Bruce Chen, and Robinson Tejeda in the rotation, with Marlon Byrd and Kenny Lofton in the outfield. Which is probably why I think they'll be bad.

Wild Card - Red Sox. And I feel terrible about that pick, because I'll look like an ass when the Indians and Twins make the playoffs.

League champ is the Tigers. The pitching is just too good, and they added Sheffield for some extra swagger. I saw Steve Phillips and Tim Kurkjian discussing the AL pitching on SportsCenter this morning, going through best fastball, curve, change, etc. Nearly every category had a Tigers pitcher mentioned. Jim Leyland has to have another year of magic in him, right?

Plus, I love Placido Polanco. Senior circuit tomorrow.

Lieber to the Pen

I'm impartial on Jon Lieber...and I'm saying this is a mistake!

You simply do not take an opening day starter from 2006 and put him in the bullpen to start 2007, barring an injury hindering his abilities. Especially when you are replacing him in the rotation with a free agent signing with a far less reputable career. Last year was Lieber's first season over 4.5 ERA in his last 10 years. That's consistency. Add in the fact that he's usually among the league leaders in walks per 9, and you don't simply demote a guy like that to the bullpen in a heartbeat.

Even if the Phillies have given up on Lieber, which looks to be right given their apparent attempt to trade him, they should still showcase him early in the season for trade value. What does it say to other teams when you don't think the guy is good enough to start for you? Adam Eaton is no Cy Young.

Adam Eaton should have gone to the pen. He's injury prone, and new to the team. He should have to earn his stripes. What does this do to team chemistry when guys like Ryan Howard, who has still yet to earn his payday despite his efforts, sees a guy with a spotty past, come in on a huge paycheck, and get handed a starter job over last season's opening day pitcher?

This doesn't bode well for the team. If this was Manual's decision, it proves he's a moron. Though, I doubt it was all him since he loves veterans, especially players he's gotten to know.

Lieber's career ERA is 4.33, certainly good enough to be a 4th/5th starter in the MLB, especially for this team. Unless there is something going on here below the surface, this move is ill-advised in my mind. The Phillies really need to come out of the gates firing. Lieber was pitching well in Spring Training, and this may simply trip this team up and force them to chase the division through the dog days of summer like years past. I'm disappointed to say the least.

The Pitcher's Effect on a Teams' Phyche

Pitchers

As we all sit back and watch Gavin Floyd continue his self implosion, I caught a headline today that not only is Mark Prior not going to make the Cubs rotation, but Kerry Wood is having arm problems again. I started thinking, starting pitchers may only play every fifth day, but they can have a potentially huge effect on the team.

Gavin Floyd dragged down the Phillies for the last several years. It was just his woeful starts in the majors, it was the team longing for what should have been. When a pitcher was struggling, everyone wanted Floyd called up, and wished him the best. But after he kept tormenting us with his inconsistency, we would curse him out, until he showed promise again. The vicious cycle is over. Gavin Floyd was never going to find his niche in Philadelphia, not after the ride he took us on. yet he would probably have remained an outside shot at the rotation every year and a the first guy called from the minors for spot starts. He wouldn't be the worst guy to fill that role, it simply isn't enough from a first round pick.

Mark Prior and Kerry Wood have destroyed the Cubs in similar fashion. You couldn't trade you first born child for either of these guys a few years ago. They came into the majors on blazing fastballs and were supposed to lock down the Cubs rotation for years. Instead, they have the rotation locked up. They come into camp every year with promise, but end up on the DL, leaving the Cubs with more holes to fill. It would literally be better if they just didn't show up in the first place. No one would get their hopes up, therefore eliminating the disappointment and scrambling to find replacements.

On the same token, a true "ace" can do so much more for a team than pitch every fifth day. A guy that proves that he can rise to the occasion and win a big game when he has to or stop a losing streak will also put his team at ease. He may cut the tension that mounts after a few losses, and literally get the team to rally around him just based on the confidence they have in his abilities. The same can be said for a lights out closer. Up by a run or two late in a game, with a shaky bullpen, the hitters will still be pressing to score more runs leading to unproductive atbats. Knowing that the game is all but over makes insurance runs a bonus, not a premium, which ultimately helps the offense relax and puts the pressure on the other teams' pitcher and batters.

Another example can be seen with Eric Gagne. After three straight dominating seasons as LA's closer, Gagne was lost for the year early in 2005. The Dodgers dropped from 1st in their division in 2004 to last in 2005. They rallied in 2006 after losing Gagne again, no doubt more mentally prepared and with a deeper bullpen the second time around. They needed to let him go in order to move on as a team.

What does this all mean? I think getting rid of Floyd will do wonders for the psyche of the team, nearly to the tune of shipping out Abreu. Let the rookies and seasoned guys like Brito provide spot starts and push the incumbent starters. That's what's supposed to happen. But 23/24 year old #1 picks aren't supposed to give you questions, they are supposed to provide answers. Well Gavin, the gig is up. How much longer can Ken Williams feed the media the BS confidence before you find yourself in AAA again with no hopes of getting back to the majors.

Cheaters

Oh, and I HATE Gary Matthews Jr. Can anyone say Brady Anderson? The guy is little better than an average back up his whole career...then in his 30s, he all of the sudden turns into an all star caliber player, doing things his body simply wasn't capable of before? The gig is up on you, too, Gary. After two weeks of self denial, everyone can see through your BS comments. Man up for once, admit you wanted the money and the spotlight, so you cheated. Retire from baseball with the dignity that you were at least honest with yourself. And give the Angels back the outrageously stupid contract they awarded you.

Starting to find relief?

Sorry Pete, we are bringing up the Lieber thing again. I read today that the Phils are now talking about using Lieber or Eaton in the bullpen, since the trade offers for Lieber aren't good. I still think its an injury away from falling into place, but if all our bullpen hopefuls are struggling, this becomes an intriguing, if short term, solution.

The question is: which one? I dont know who has the stuff that is better suited for the bullpen. Lieber is more the workhorse type pitcher, not going to miss starts and going to give you lots of innings. Eaton would be that guy if healthy, although even if they both made 35 starts, I'd wager on Lieber throwing more innings. Lieber gives up more homeruns, but he pitched in the Bank last year as opposed to Eaton in big park San Diego for a few seasons, so it's hard to tell. Neither walks that many guys, and Lieber's walk to strikeout ratio is great.

It isn't a cost issue, because their salaries are about the same. Both have expressed a willingness to do whatever it takes, and to pitch in Philadelphia. But if the Phillies still want to trade Lieber, they probably have to leave him in the rotation. He may pitch well in the pen and show some teams his versitility, but they will sell him as a starter and he will be bought as a starter. Besides, we wouldn't trade him for bullpen help if he was good in the bullpen, unless someone really overwhelmed us with multiple pitchers for Lieber. Eaton, on the other hand, might benefit from the bullpen, if he is as injury prone as I think he is. It hasn't been an endurance issue, but nagging injuries, which might be reduced if he throws fewer pitches per night. Unless you are worried about Lieber's weight, like the whole media seems to be, then maybe not asking him to go out for 7 innings and 110 pitches is for the best.

Probably need a scout to make this call, someone who can evaluate their stuff rather than try to remember what they look like by reading a few superficial stats on the web. What do you think?

More Spring Training Notes

We are one third of the way through March, even though I am close to completing my first season in MLB '07 "The Show," which, if you were considering buying a baseball game this year, definitely buy The Show over 2k7. The 2k series have always been subpar, and even bringing in one of the top guys from the now retired EA MVP series didn't help. Aside from bad gameplay, it supposedly has a ton of bugs, which include batters occasionally standing backwards in the box. The Show plays well, and a new feature allows you to create a rookie and fight your way onto a minor league and pro team, but only having to play your player's events (ABs, pitching, fielding, etc.), which makes the game go quickly. I'll forgive them for the default roster having Werth start over Victorino.

Back to real baseball:

Greg Dobbs will make the Phillies. He is hitting .500 with 5 home runs (2 of which were in "unofficial" games). Even though I don't believe in the need for a "Lefty" bench player (I think someone that hits righties well, like Coste, does the trick), having a guy like Dobbs who can play multiple positions and give you some pop will help this team. Looking over his stats, he has played 1st, 3rd, but also LF and RF in his short career with the Mariners. He had two errors his rookie season at 3rd, and hasn't made an error in limited opportunities since then. Interestingly, he was drafted twice, but eventually signed as a free agent. He refused to sign after being taken in the 52nd round in 96, and again in the 10th round in 99. Somehow his stock plummeted and the Mariners (the team that drafted him in 96) signed him as a minor league FA in 2001. I don't know the story, but it seems to me like a guy who never got his chance, in the Coste mold, but about 5 years younger.

Ryan Madson is adding a slider. Thank goodness. His curveball was worthless last year. More and more, effective bullpen guys need more than a two pitch arsenal. Madson's fastball-changeup combo is above average, but they lose effectiveness when the hitter can sit on one or the other. You almost always need a pitch with movement to keep the hitters off balance, and hopefully he can hone his new slider to at least put it in the back of hitters' minds and throw it once or twice an inning.

Garcia's fastball is slow and flat. Before we raise the white flag, we need to give this evaluation some time. Last season he lost velocity down the stretch, but that was probably due to pitching the entire postseason and then the World Baseball Classic. As a veteran, he is off the hook for the spring, as long as he gets himself ready. He could go out there and throw one pitch in the same location for 3 innings if he wanted. And it's still early, if his fastball is slow and flat in the last week of spring training, then it's time to worry.

Gavin Floyd is getting rocked, but still being fed fake confidence. Let the White Sox deal with it. We are so relieved to be looking from the outside in right about now. He's giving up a run an inning right this spring (I don't care if some are unearned, the error could be on him for all I know). I don't know what else there is to do for him other than have his Mom manage the team and his Dad be his pitching coach. His ego is more delicate than Eaton's finger. By the way, Gio Gonzalez is scoreless in his first 4 innings pitched.

What to do with Lieber. This isn't a serious question until opening day. Someone, including us, will have another starter injury and will be desperate for a guy who can eat all the donuts in the clubhouse. Worse things have happened than entering the season with 6 starters. As long as someone besides Manuel is making the decisions, I'm OK with it. But were' not raising this issue again until April.

How good does it feel to see the Braves and Marlins lose Starting Pitching. I don't know about you, and maybe I'm sadistic, but I was happy to see Hampton and Josh Johnson both go down for a couple months. Couple that with the Nats only having about one pitcher, and the Mets with 3 guys hanging on by a thread, and we have the best pitching staff in the division by far. I do think we are the team to beat, even with a subpar bullpen.

None of the Rule 5s will make the team. Jim Ed Warden and Alfredo Simon have both been hit pretty hard so far. Unless one of these guys goes on fire to finish the spring, I don't think either are options for an already mainly inexperienced bullpen. The catcher may not have had a chance initially, but acquiring Barajas and Werth completely pushed him out of the picture.

Allen Iverson and Bobby Abreu...Two Peas in a Pod?

So the Sixers have turned around their season like the Phillies of '06...following the trade of their superstar...huh? So let me get this straight, Philadelphia franchises do better AFTER they trade away their best player.

The Phillies were 49-54 on the day that they dealt Abreu and Lidle to the Yankees for prospects. They finished the season on a 35-23 tear...narrowly missing the playoffs.

This year's Sixers were 5-18 with Iverson (though he wasn't playing everyday and eventually sent home) and are 19-20 without him, currently only 4 1/2 games out of the pathetic Eastern Conference playoff picture.

While no one can debate the talent of these well respected players (except for Abreu's offensive Gold Glove), their respective eras in this city were similarly over. It is nearly impossible for a franchise to change their losing ways while maintaining the same personnel, especially the face of the franchise. Iverson's 11 seasons here, highlighted by the Finals loss to the Lakers, had simply run their course. The team could not get any better with him as their leader, and he could never play a supporting role (nor would it have been right). The strange thing is, if the Sixers somehow climb into the playoffs, riding their current 6 game winning streak, they still may end up with a lottery pick, as Denver is struggling right now, only 1 1/2 games ahead of 9th place Sacramento. The same could be said about Abreu...a city can only take so many narrow playoff misses before they turn on their superstars.

At season's end, I think that the Sixers miss the playoffs. Aside from getting a shot at the lottery (albeit with much reduced odds than thought a month ago) they maintain their first round pick, which is protected through the lottery and lowest seeded playoff spot to the Warriors from a four-team trade in 2003. The pick has been protected through the top 15 and been delayed for 4 years (passing from Atlanta to Dallas to Golden State), and King finally agreed to buy the pick out for $1 Million. Therefore, the Sixers capturing the 7th playoff spot could be disastrous for the team.

I think Denver pulls it together and makes the playoffs. The team simply cannot play as bad as they are right now. They are young, and sometimes stupid, but I think Iverson puts on some spectacular shows down the stretch. That being said, their pick should fall into the teens. Dallas' pick, of course, will be worthless, and will hopefully be packaged along with either Denver's or the Sixers'. The last pick in the first round is worth less than the top 3 to 5 picks in the 2nd round because the money is guaranteed for the same second tier talent. Plus, this team is already young and would not benefit from 3 rookies (especially since they could no longer take a developing high school player and stash him in the D League).

So another Philadelphia team is seeing a resurgence since trading the face of the franchise. The Flyers are following suit trading half of their veterans, but it's impossible to play any worse so they are expected to rebound slightly. The same thing could happen to the Eagles if they miss the playoffs or McNabb gets hurt again.

Spring Questions

You can keep your pagan sun worshipping - on the Calendar of Jeff, the first day of spring is the first day with a full slate of MLB exhibition games. In 2007, that fell yesterday, March 1 (the Phils lost to Detroit 9-7, and no one cared). It is not as holy a day as the first day of summer or the day pitchers and catchers report, but it is a cause for celebration nonetheless.

We've been pretty quiet during Spring Training so far because, well, there is nothing interesting to talk about. Everyone in Phillies camp is saying and doing the right things - even Mike Schmidt. Without any controversy, any injuries, or any feet inserted into mouths, what are we supposed to talk about? Here are 5 interesting questions to follow during Phillies camp (in no particular order). Although I have no insider knowledge about any of them, this is what I'll be watching for and complaining about for the next month.

1. Whither Jon Lieber?
Probably the biggest question this spring is where Jon Lieber is going. He will pitch for a major league club somewhere in some capacity, and I'm not sure if that is going to be in Philly or not. I can't see any of our 6 starters ending up in the bullpen. Pete has mentioned to me moving Moyer, because he could bounce back into the starting rotation and he throws junk so he can pitch consecutive nights. While that's probably true, he likely won't get enough work doing that. He would have to be used as a mop up guy or a lefty specialist, and end up getting one out per night, and I just don't see that with a guy who throws slower than highway traffic. Myers is a bulldog and could close, but he is a front of the rotation guy.

I see one of two scenarios: 1) Lieber gets dealt during spring training for less than we want back for him, marginally improving the bullpen, or 2) someone on our staff gets a minor injury and Lieber stays around on a 6-man rotation for a month or so, protecting the injured guy and injury prone Hamels and Eaton (or rather, whichever of them wasn't the first one with the injury). Then Lieber gets dealt to some other club with a pitching injury.

2. Who's on 3rd?
More importantly, does it matter? Nunez has the defense, Helms has the power...I lean to Nunez, since we score plenty of runs as it is and could use power on the bench. Of course, that assumes Nunez can manage to raise his average to at least .250.

3. What does the Lieby-less world look like?
I'm actually a Lieberthal fan, but in any case, his era has ended. Ruiz and Barajas are competing for the starting job, but it probably goes to Barajas unless and until he completely struggles. Ruiz will probably catch twice a week anyway. The big question is Chris Coste, who completely deserves a roster spot and can play the corner infield even if he isn't catching. It will be a shame if they don't keep him.

4. Can you throw a 6 seem fastball, and if so, what would it do?
Antonio Alfonseca is going to be our set up man? Really? This bullpen scares me, I'll be honest. If Gordon gets hurt, we have humongous problems. Hopefully he gets injured in a fight with a starter on another club who also happens to have two quality closer candidates, or we have problems.

5. Will Pat Burrell get to play 9 innings?
Burrell has too much talent and too much money to not be given every opportunity to hit 5th, play every day, and play every inning. If you keep taking him out of games when he is already struggling, and his struggles are already in his head, he is just going to put more pressure on himself in the 6th inning when he thinks its his last chance. Give him a shot at playing a full game. Besides, I don't want Werth hitting too often, do you?

One last note: I need to amend my list of offseason bad moves to add the loss of Scott Graham from the broadcasting team. I like him, and it's a shame he is gone, although I won't miss his ice cream commercials. He is a lot of fun as an announcer, whether it's the Phillies or the Big 5. I'll still be putting them in the win column for the Fightin' Phils all season.