Jeff's NL Predictions

NL East
1. Mets
2. Phillies
3. Braves
4. Marlins
5. Nationals
Pedro, Manuel, and deep July pockets make the difference. Both teams have questions, and they were 11 wins apart last year - did the Mets get 5 games worse, and did the Phillies get 5 games better? I don't know that either of those things are true. It will be close, but we'll be on the wrong side.

NL Central
1. Cardinals
2. Brewers
3. Cubs
4. Astros (I'm assuming no Clemens)
5. Reds
6. Pirates
St. Louis has to be dethroned before I take someone else here. They have to be healthier this season, and I think the pitching will still be good. The Brewers move up based on pitching, but Pujols can carry the Cardinals offense, and the Brewers are young. Maybe I'm a sucker, but I think the Cubs are a lot better, and the Astros did not get better by losing Pettite and probably Clemens. This is a tough division to finish and 1-4 could be completely flipped without surprising anyone, unless the Cubs ended up on top, because come on, it's the Cubs.

NL West
1. Dodgers
2. Giants (counting on Bonds to stay out of injuries and indictment)
3. Padres
4. Diamondbacks
5. Rockies
Why do people think Arizona will be good? Their most experienced regular is Eric Byrnes. No one on their team has 100 career home runs. Their closer was demoted last season. Maybe they are this year's 2006 Marlins, but that's probably just wishful thinking. Randy Johnson definitely won't pitch like he did last time he was in Arizona, but I don't think he is done either.

Wild Card - Phils. I smell an August surge again, just not from as far behind this time.

I have lost the ability to look at this season objectively. By picking the Phillies second, I might be downplaying their talent and their upgrade from last year just because I don't want to overhype them with my fandom. But I may also be disrespecting the Marlins' young talent or the Braves' strength and off-season changes. So I can't pick the Phils to win the division....but I'm not sold on a second place team anywhere else. Maybe the Brewers, who lots of people have winning the Central, are good enough to beat up on a weaker division and take the wild card from the teams bruised in NL East battles, but I don't buy it. So I'll take the Phillies to surge late, win the wild card, and run the table in the playoffs.

I mean, I can't pick them to lose to the Mets, right? So screw that, screw objectivity - Philles 4 games to 2 over Detroit in October. I might be wrong, but if someone else wins, what's the fun in being right?