Warning: Police Report Potential Baseball Sighting in Philadelphia

Just when you think they are out, they pull you back in! The Phillies, now sporting their first three-game winning streak of the season (let's be honest, first winning streak of the season), are starting to look like a real baseball team. That's three straight days with a solid starting effort, no blown saves, and a little bit of offense. Utley and Victorino have been ginormous over the last 3 games, and Rowand is riding a bit of a hitting streak. Rollins had a phenomenal day yesterday. Hopefully those guys all level off and stay as good as we think they are (or stay hot, that would be fine) and Howard wakes up. Then the offense is back to where we know it should be, and need it to be, and we can get back in this divisional race. Still plenty of Mets and Braves games left!

The purpose of this post is mostly to show that we do say positive things about the Phillies, too. Therefore, I won't mention the team's past experience with scoring 10 runs one day and 1 run the next. We can pitch and moan when they lose, let's just savor the winning streak (which I have now officially jinxed) while it lasts.

Substitutions

While Pete and I were at the Phils-Nats game last week, we were getting a little frustrated with the constant replacement of Burrell in the middle innings. Nearly every game, Bourn is pinch-running, pinch-hitting, pinch-fielding (a.k.a defensive replacement), or pinch-playing-seven-innings-because-the-bullpen-blows-the-lead for Burrell nearly every night. Even when Burrell pinch hits for Dobbs on Sunday, Bourn comes in and replaces him.

It's one thing to get Bourn in there for the 9th just to make sure the defense is set to hold the lead, it's entirely different to pinch run in the 6th when you are ahead. It's getting ridiculous, so we started wondering what else Bourn might be pinch-doing for Burrell. Burrell is a valuable commodity, so we have to protect him from reinjuring his foot or wrist or anything else, and Bourn is a rookie that we can abuse. So here's a partial list that we'll keep adding to when we get bored:

• Pinch-playing with the kids (see Griffey, Ken)
• Pinch-air guitar (see Zumaya, Joel)
• Pinch-mowing the lawn
• Pinch-taking out the trash (Bourn has to be able to do that faster)
• Pinch-running out for milk
• Pinch-changing a light bulb

But hey, this is a team. What could Burrell do for Bourn?

• Pinch-hitting the ball out of the infield
• Pinch-medical treatment (he's an expert)

For the record, I like both players, but that game was so boring, and the team so pathetic (hopefully this weekend is the start of turning it around), this is what we were driven to do.

Phillies and More

PHILLIES

Jeff and I attended the Phillies/Nationals battle for last place game today. While it's always entertaining to watch guys strike out on 72 mile per hour pitches from the crafty Jamie Moyer, they game was extremely boring to watch. Shane Victorino by the way, should have been so out on his steal attempt, but apparently, Lopez just blew the tag even though the throw was on the base.

Managing mistakes:

Chally didn't make too many boneheaded mistakes in this one. We supported his decision to leave Moyer in for the 8th, and to start the 9th (even at 106 pitches) because the bullpen needed an obvious rest heading into a long stretch of continuous games. He did, however, pinch run for Burrell with Bourn in the 6th inning, way too early in a still close game. An outfield of Bourn, Rowand, and Victorino for the final few innings ranks with the worst in baseball.

I can't remember the last time I felt confident about a win with a 4 run lead in the 9th...something is very wrong with this franchise. It's certainly fair for Moyer to give up a few hits his 4th time through the lineup. But then Gordon apparently wanted to make us sweat it out a little. If the Nats hit the grand slam to win it, Jeff and I were officially giving up on the team. That has been postoned for the time being.

Outfield

The Phillies really need to do something about their outfield situation. Michael Bourn is ready to play in the MLB, and if nothing else, should be playing full time in AAA rather than pinch running for Burrell. In Victorino, Rollins, and Bourn, the Phils have 3 incredibly fast players all with some degree of leadoff potential. Bourn and Victorino both deserve a shot to play center as well. Aaron Rowand needs to be traded soon. I would put him in right for the meantime, except he doesn't have the arm. Ideally, Victorino or Bourn should be traded too, since the team is not designed to lose power in right, especially with Burrell only getting 400 ABs a year.

It's also time to move Rollins down in the lineup. Victorino and Bourn deserve a shot at leadoff, and the way Rollins is hitting I think he would make a great 6 hitter. What this lineup is missing is a pure #2 hitter. Someone who doesn't strike out, who hits to all fields, with gap power. This hitter should either come from right or third the way the team is built. Helms may be that guy at this point in his career, but I think he strikes out too much. Victorino or Bourn may also develop into that guy, but I think if one leads off, the other is best suited for the 8 hole. That would help provide some offsense from our usually stagnant bottom of the lineup.

I don't think this team needs Barajas. I was fine with the signing at the time, but Ruiz has proven his worth. Coste also deserves to be on the team, and Jamarillo provides depth and should take over the backup job at some point next year. There was interest in Barajas this offseason, so I think we should scout any teams with injuries at the position.

Guys to trade:

I hate to put guys on the auction block, and sadly, a lot of these guys haven't drawn interest yet, but I think the team would benefit from addition by subtraction with trading a few of these guys.

• Rod Barajas
• Aaron Rowand
• Abraham Nunez or Danny Sandoval
  
• Chris Roberson
• Jon Lieber
• Tom Gordon
• Jamie Moyer
  

I understand we likely won't get anything for Nunez, Sandoval or Roberson, but I think these subpar players even being options bring down the team. How does Nunez already have 2 starts at third? He's the WORST hitter in the league. The lineup is already struggling. Sandoval is essentially the same player, we don't need both of them for any reason, it's hard to justify keeping one.

It's simply Rowand's time to go. He's in a FA year, and I have a feeling the Phils won't offer him arbitration. Trade him to the highest bidder by the deadline regardless of how the team is doing. Give Bourn some seasoning so he can move into at least a platoon spot next year.

I'm not sold on trading Lieber until Garcia is proven healthy. But either way, Lieber is the reason our opening day starter is in the bullpen, this is inexcusable. Hopefully he pitches well, and someone with a need, see Yankees, will offer us a few low level prospects.

I'm still waiting for Gordon's arm to fall off. I didn't like the risk in the 3 year deal to begin with and thought they should have traded him last season. He's going to become an expensive set up man eventually, and if he's still the team's closer next year, they aren't going anywhere to begin with. Oh why couldn't we have traded for Rafael Soriano?

The team owes it to Moyer to give him one last shot at winning. I like the way he mentors Hamels, and think he is an asset to the team. So trade him to a contender with the understanding that the minute he retires he can come be the pitching coach. This would let one of the younger guys come up and get a head start on pitching in the rotation next year.

NFL PROSPECTS SMOKE WEED

This is news? Come on! Everyone needs to get off of their high horse and stop pretending that marijuana is only used by criminals. How many politicians, police officers, and judges are smoking up right now?

RICKY WILLIAMS

Speaking of drug users, supposedly the Rams are interested in Ricky Williams if he is reinstated. Why don't the Eagles take a run at the guy? He's a low risk, high reward case. I think Andy keeps the distraction to a minimum, and if he makes the team, he's a big back to come in behind Westbrook and bruise some carries up the middle.

All you need to know about the 2007 Phillies

ESPN, as you know from their SportsCenter commercials, is the king of subtle. I think we all know what they are trying to tell us:
Caption for the symbolism impaired: ESPN has had so little occassion to load the Phillies logo for their game scoring summaries, that my computer couldn't figure out how to find that picture.

Apparently Charlie Manuel yelled at a talk radio host (Eskin) "we are going to win" among other profanities. People talk about Lou Pinella's blow ups, but Charlie never shows his frustration like that. I just can't see him yelling "What's our record? 3-9. How'd we ever win 3?" But maybe he should.

Wake me up when we win two in a row.

The First Series

Well, that sucked. The Phillies lose three to the Braves to start the season. Maybe the warmer weather in Florida will help. These games looked just like last season: too many strikeouts, no hitting with runners in scoring position, bullpen blows two leads but is great in the game they needed a bunch of innings. Burrell's strikeouts were just as predictable as always, and he got booed by the few fans who stuck around even though the Phils were down 8-1 and it was snowing. Someone even tossed a beer bottle into the outfield towards the end of Thursday's game. This is why I hate Phillies fans.

And Ryan Howard is PISSED. He is still out there shaking his head playing in the field after striking out. I don't think he will struggle for too long, but I wonder how long it takes for someone to say on ESPN that the Phillies were so smart for waiting on this guy after getting burned on Burrell's contract. Instant wisdom like that is really only a suit and tie away from booing a harmless strikeout in April.

So now Charlie Manuel is back on the hot seat, as if Jimy Williams could possibly say something different if they give him a bigger office. Using Madson was the right move both times, although double-switching for the catcher when you are only carrying 2 catchers is strange...at this point, the players aren't doing it, and they weren't doing it for Bowa either. But it does suck to watch.

The Phils also continue to stockpile arms by acquiring Francisco Rosario from Toronto for cash. Certainly can't hurt.

First Day of Summer

In my calendar, today is the First Day of Summer. You can tell because it's Opening Day. This works much beter with people who talk about hope and beginning anew - that is the stuff of spring, and spring training. Now it is April, and we can start eliminating the Orioles, Nationals, Devil Rays, Royals, Rockies, and Pirates from playoff contention.

Luckily for me living in DC, we are opening against the Braves, which means I get the game on TBS. As I sit here watching the first pitch (fastball, outside corner, strike 1!) of the Phillies' season, here are a few Phillies predictions to put me on the record for 2007.

1. Cole Hamels will not win 15 games. Brett Myers will. Hamels is still a year away, because he will walk too many.

2. Pat Burrell will drive in 100 runs.

3. Ryan Howard will hit 50 home runs.

4. If he isn't your hero yet, Chase Utley will be your hero by the end of the year.

5. I will not have goosebumps. It's going to be a fun year anyway.

Jeff's NL Predictions

NL East
1. Mets
2. Phillies
3. Braves
4. Marlins
5. Nationals
Pedro, Manuel, and deep July pockets make the difference. Both teams have questions, and they were 11 wins apart last year - did the Mets get 5 games worse, and did the Phillies get 5 games better? I don't know that either of those things are true. It will be close, but we'll be on the wrong side.

NL Central
1. Cardinals
2. Brewers
3. Cubs
4. Astros (I'm assuming no Clemens)
5. Reds
6. Pirates
St. Louis has to be dethroned before I take someone else here. They have to be healthier this season, and I think the pitching will still be good. The Brewers move up based on pitching, but Pujols can carry the Cardinals offense, and the Brewers are young. Maybe I'm a sucker, but I think the Cubs are a lot better, and the Astros did not get better by losing Pettite and probably Clemens. This is a tough division to finish and 1-4 could be completely flipped without surprising anyone, unless the Cubs ended up on top, because come on, it's the Cubs.

NL West
1. Dodgers
2. Giants (counting on Bonds to stay out of injuries and indictment)
3. Padres
4. Diamondbacks
5. Rockies
Why do people think Arizona will be good? Their most experienced regular is Eric Byrnes. No one on their team has 100 career home runs. Their closer was demoted last season. Maybe they are this year's 2006 Marlins, but that's probably just wishful thinking. Randy Johnson definitely won't pitch like he did last time he was in Arizona, but I don't think he is done either.

Wild Card - Phils. I smell an August surge again, just not from as far behind this time.

I have lost the ability to look at this season objectively. By picking the Phillies second, I might be downplaying their talent and their upgrade from last year just because I don't want to overhype them with my fandom. But I may also be disrespecting the Marlins' young talent or the Braves' strength and off-season changes. So I can't pick the Phils to win the division....but I'm not sold on a second place team anywhere else. Maybe the Brewers, who lots of people have winning the Central, are good enough to beat up on a weaker division and take the wild card from the teams bruised in NL East battles, but I don't buy it. So I'll take the Phillies to surge late, win the wild card, and run the table in the playoffs.

I mean, I can't pick them to lose to the Mets, right? So screw that, screw objectivity - Philles 4 games to 2 over Detroit in October. I might be wrong, but if someone else wins, what's the fun in being right?

Jeff's AL Predictions

AL East
1. Yankees
2. Red Sox
3. Blue Jays
4. Devil Rays (yeah, I know)
5. Orioles
The Red Sox finished in 3rd last year and added J.D. Drew...I can't pick them to win the division.

AL Central
1. Tigers
2. Twins
3. Indians
4. White Sox
5. Royals
Wow, what a deep divsion. My 4th place team could win and it wouldn't be much of an upset. However, I don't buy the Indians like Buster Olney...I'm just hoping they are good enough to make my wild card pick right.

AL West
1. A's
2. Angels
3. Mariners
4. Rangers
Texas, by the way, has a quite impressive cast of former Phillies - Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Bruce Chen, and Robinson Tejeda in the rotation, with Marlon Byrd and Kenny Lofton in the outfield. Which is probably why I think they'll be bad.

Wild Card - Red Sox. And I feel terrible about that pick, because I'll look like an ass when the Indians and Twins make the playoffs.

League champ is the Tigers. The pitching is just too good, and they added Sheffield for some extra swagger. I saw Steve Phillips and Tim Kurkjian discussing the AL pitching on SportsCenter this morning, going through best fastball, curve, change, etc. Nearly every category had a Tigers pitcher mentioned. Jim Leyland has to have another year of magic in him, right?

Plus, I love Placido Polanco. Senior circuit tomorrow.

Lieber to the Pen

I'm impartial on Jon Lieber...and I'm saying this is a mistake!

You simply do not take an opening day starter from 2006 and put him in the bullpen to start 2007, barring an injury hindering his abilities. Especially when you are replacing him in the rotation with a free agent signing with a far less reputable career. Last year was Lieber's first season over 4.5 ERA in his last 10 years. That's consistency. Add in the fact that he's usually among the league leaders in walks per 9, and you don't simply demote a guy like that to the bullpen in a heartbeat.

Even if the Phillies have given up on Lieber, which looks to be right given their apparent attempt to trade him, they should still showcase him early in the season for trade value. What does it say to other teams when you don't think the guy is good enough to start for you? Adam Eaton is no Cy Young.

Adam Eaton should have gone to the pen. He's injury prone, and new to the team. He should have to earn his stripes. What does this do to team chemistry when guys like Ryan Howard, who has still yet to earn his payday despite his efforts, sees a guy with a spotty past, come in on a huge paycheck, and get handed a starter job over last season's opening day pitcher?

This doesn't bode well for the team. If this was Manual's decision, it proves he's a moron. Though, I doubt it was all him since he loves veterans, especially players he's gotten to know.

Lieber's career ERA is 4.33, certainly good enough to be a 4th/5th starter in the MLB, especially for this team. Unless there is something going on here below the surface, this move is ill-advised in my mind. The Phillies really need to come out of the gates firing. Lieber was pitching well in Spring Training, and this may simply trip this team up and force them to chase the division through the dog days of summer like years past. I'm disappointed to say the least.

The Pitcher's Effect on a Teams' Phyche

Pitchers

As we all sit back and watch Gavin Floyd continue his self implosion, I caught a headline today that not only is Mark Prior not going to make the Cubs rotation, but Kerry Wood is having arm problems again. I started thinking, starting pitchers may only play every fifth day, but they can have a potentially huge effect on the team.

Gavin Floyd dragged down the Phillies for the last several years. It was just his woeful starts in the majors, it was the team longing for what should have been. When a pitcher was struggling, everyone wanted Floyd called up, and wished him the best. But after he kept tormenting us with his inconsistency, we would curse him out, until he showed promise again. The vicious cycle is over. Gavin Floyd was never going to find his niche in Philadelphia, not after the ride he took us on. yet he would probably have remained an outside shot at the rotation every year and a the first guy called from the minors for spot starts. He wouldn't be the worst guy to fill that role, it simply isn't enough from a first round pick.

Mark Prior and Kerry Wood have destroyed the Cubs in similar fashion. You couldn't trade you first born child for either of these guys a few years ago. They came into the majors on blazing fastballs and were supposed to lock down the Cubs rotation for years. Instead, they have the rotation locked up. They come into camp every year with promise, but end up on the DL, leaving the Cubs with more holes to fill. It would literally be better if they just didn't show up in the first place. No one would get their hopes up, therefore eliminating the disappointment and scrambling to find replacements.

On the same token, a true "ace" can do so much more for a team than pitch every fifth day. A guy that proves that he can rise to the occasion and win a big game when he has to or stop a losing streak will also put his team at ease. He may cut the tension that mounts after a few losses, and literally get the team to rally around him just based on the confidence they have in his abilities. The same can be said for a lights out closer. Up by a run or two late in a game, with a shaky bullpen, the hitters will still be pressing to score more runs leading to unproductive atbats. Knowing that the game is all but over makes insurance runs a bonus, not a premium, which ultimately helps the offense relax and puts the pressure on the other teams' pitcher and batters.

Another example can be seen with Eric Gagne. After three straight dominating seasons as LA's closer, Gagne was lost for the year early in 2005. The Dodgers dropped from 1st in their division in 2004 to last in 2005. They rallied in 2006 after losing Gagne again, no doubt more mentally prepared and with a deeper bullpen the second time around. They needed to let him go in order to move on as a team.

What does this all mean? I think getting rid of Floyd will do wonders for the psyche of the team, nearly to the tune of shipping out Abreu. Let the rookies and seasoned guys like Brito provide spot starts and push the incumbent starters. That's what's supposed to happen. But 23/24 year old #1 picks aren't supposed to give you questions, they are supposed to provide answers. Well Gavin, the gig is up. How much longer can Ken Williams feed the media the BS confidence before you find yourself in AAA again with no hopes of getting back to the majors.

Cheaters

Oh, and I HATE Gary Matthews Jr. Can anyone say Brady Anderson? The guy is little better than an average back up his whole career...then in his 30s, he all of the sudden turns into an all star caliber player, doing things his body simply wasn't capable of before? The gig is up on you, too, Gary. After two weeks of self denial, everyone can see through your BS comments. Man up for once, admit you wanted the money and the spotlight, so you cheated. Retire from baseball with the dignity that you were at least honest with yourself. And give the Angels back the outrageously stupid contract they awarded you.