REWORKING THE BENCH: MARCUS GILES?

The Phillies bench depth last year is what allowed them to continue their incredible offensive production despite injuries to Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Shane Victorino, and an ever aching Pat Burrell. While some bench players didn't provide the force initially hoped for (Abe Nunez, Wes Helms and Rod Barajas) guys like Greg Dobbs, Jayson Werth, Michael Bourn, Chris Coste, and Tadahito Iguchi carried this team through some rough stretches of the season.

The team will bring back Werth and Dobbs as utility/spot start players, and I believe we own Werth's arb rights until 2010 and Dobbs' until 2011. Bourn I would like to see traded if the team can resign Rowand, which will hopefully net pitching help...far more important than a 4th/5th outfielder, though if not we own his rights until 2012. Werth is too valuable of a pinch hitter to use exclusively as a defensive replacement for Burrell, but the Phils should be able to find someone cheap for that role, or stomach Chris Roberson for the time being. Coste should be retained, and after the failed Barajas experience, keep Coste as the veteran catcher to mentor and provide insurance for Ruiz and Jason Jamarillo, while also using him to pinch hit and play the variety or other positions he's made career of. I believe Helms will be traded if the Phils acquire a starting 3b, which should leave one or two spots open.

Iguchi can opt out of his contract (which means we can't offer him arbitration and get draft picks...which is why the ChiSox traded him for Dubee's kid) and will look for a starting 2b spot somewhere else, which he's earned. I just caught news that Marcus Giles has been granted an unconditional release by the Padres. I think the Phillies should at least take a look at him as a 29 year old career .277 coming off a few bad years looking to revive his career and likely to accept a low paying bench role. The Braves seemed to be genius (as usual) to get rid of him when they did. This is a guy, however, who hit .316, .311, .291 before falling to .262 and then dropping off completely this year. If he's playing well, he's a staple at the top of the lineup, good for 40 doubles, 15 homers, and 15 steals. He's very comparable offensively to Aaron Rowand: solid but not spectacular numbers, but strikes out too much and doesn't walk enough to justify lack of power production, so value hinges heavily on batting average.

The Rowand-Giles Offensive Production by batting average chart:
> .330 = Incredible
> .300 = Great
> .270 = Good
< .270 = Bad
< .240 = Cut (apparently)

To put it in perspective, here's the Howard-Burrell Offensive Production by batting average chart:
> .300 = Incredible
> .280 = Great
> .260 = Good
> .240 = Acceptable (Adam Dunn anyone?)
< .240 = Bad

Marcus Giles has steadily improved his defense at 2b, cutting down to 7 errors in 112 games last season. I think he would be an effective low risk, high reward signing for this team. He provides a solid, experienced back up should Utley get hurt at all, and also a back up for Ryan Howard as Utley can shift to first if the big fella goes on the DL for an extended period. I would guess Giles doesn't have the arm or range to play SS or 3b, though the Braves did play him at third for 9 games over the seasons he was there, so he could potentially enter the 3b mix.

I understand I'm spending a lot of time on a player who hit .229 this season and was cut from the very team his brother plays on, but it's signings like these that make or break your season. Our All-Star lineup gets the headlines, but without Iguchi, Dobbs and Werth we are a sub .500 team last year, plain and simple. When starters were injured or unproductive, these guys stepped in to not only match production, but in some cases exceed it. That's what got this team to the postseason. These three guys were as important collectively as Jimmy Rollins was to this team.

I would like the Phils to take a waiver on this guy and check his recent medical condition as well as ask about steriod use...the guy hit 21 home runs in 2003 with a SLG% .065 higher than any other year, and he's the size of Ozzie Smith (I think baseball's gotten to a point where every contract should have a clause that says "Have you ever taken steroids?" "If yes, please explain" and "This contract is void should if it be found that player lied on the previous question or begins to take steroids under this contract"). Coming out of that negative light, I think he'd be an excellent addition to the team, the signing would fly under the radar, but he'd be there when we needed him most.

SOLVING A CROWDED OUTFIELD: RESIGN ROWAND

Aaron Rowand is a very good baseball player, but that's only 50% of what Aaron Rowand brings to this team. He is gritty, a Philly style player, with heart, but that still only adds another 30% to what he brings. Aaron Rowand is glue that brings this team together, that's the last 20, and often unnoticed, percent that he brings to this team and city.

Aaron Rowand is the captain of the outfield. He is a leader on the bench and the clubhouse. He puts together team gatherings, barbeques and genuinely gels this team. Aaron Rowand bleeds intangibles, things not seen on the stat sheet or necessarily during the game, but contributes to the success of the franchise. That's why I've decided after some debate, we need to resign him at nearly any cost, he's priceless.

I'm not going to acknowledge the outrageous demand that Rowand supposedly made regarding his value. It did not come from a confirmed source, and there are too many reporters fabricating stories during a slow time (outside of Colorado, Boston and Cleveland) leading into the offseason. I don't believe Rowand is the type of guy to make those demands, so I will be objectively discussing his value here.

Like everyone, I hesitate to give Rowand a long term deal. He is, however, only 30, and despite the constant running into things, we're talking about a baseball, not football player. I believe Rowand could have 3 more years left of his prime. He'll start to lose a step in the outfield, but he's a smart player, so he'll adjust his play to suit his strengths.

Offensively, Rowand is a very good hitter. Last year was a career year, but it wasn't extraordinary by Rowand's standards as he's been consistently effective, especially over the last 4 years. He sports a career average of .286, .289 over the last 4 years. He has averaged 22 home runs (in a 162 game season) over the last 4 years. His strike outs are a tick high for the power he delivers, but he also brings smart baserunning and averaged 14 stolen bases (in a 162 game season) over the last 4 years. He answered questions about his durability this season playing in 161 games.

I think Gillick should stretch far to retain Rowand, if it takes 5 years, go ahead. I'd rather give him more money than years, but I don't think 5 years is too long for a consistent guy like Rowand. While we pay Burrell $14 Mil a year, I think getting Rowand for anything less is a discount. I'd offer him 4/$40, and be prepared to move up to 5/$60. I simply don't think the presence that Rowand brings to this team can be overstated.

The Rest of the Outfield

Shane Victorino and Michael Bourn are very good, young outfielders who deserve a chance to play everyday. I really like Victorino in right field, and I think he should patrol there for the next few years. He covers ground like a centerfielder, and has one of the best arms out there. Any loss in power offensively is more than made up for with Rowand, Burrell, and our infield. Actually, it's contact hitters that don't strike out, like Victorino, that this team needs to gain some consistency in the lineup. Victorino struck out 116 times...over the last two years. His stolen base threat really make his an asset to this team. He also managed 12 home runs in only 131 games, making him no pushover.

Michael Bourn is an interesting case. If we resign Rowand, I think we should trade Bourn for maximum value for a pitcher. The league is high on his potential, but he hasn't yet proved himself at the major league level. Crossing sports, he reminds me of AJ Feely when the Eagles maximized his value for a 2nd round pick. Bourn may mature into a great centerfielder for another team, but the Phillies have no less than 3 carbon copies of him in the minors that will be ready long before Rowand moves on. And because you essentially have two centerfielders starting, the 4th outfielder only needs to be able to play the corners.

Pat Burrell makes another interesting case. He's turned his career around and has repeatedly professed his desire to play in Philadelphia. If Burrell leaves after this year, ideally I would move Rowand to left and Victorino to center and replace Burrell with a rightfielder. Burrell brings a great OBP and good power, still with a plus arm despite his limited range. At this point, I'm comfortable with all three options with Burrell, trade him now or during next season, offer him arbitration to get draft picks or one more season with him after this year, or resigning him to a discounted deal without a no trade clause, maybe 3/$24.

The Phillies have a few outfield prospects in the system, along with some very infield prospects who could potentially shift to the outfield if Rollins and Utley stay healthy. I think Rowand, Victorino and Burrell give the Phillies an above average outfield, with the Phils hopefully bringing back Werth to be the 4th outfielder again.

SOLVING THIRD: DO NOT SIGN LOWELL

I still don't understand how the public at large can form such strong, yet naive opinions based off of media coverage and recent history.

The FACTS:

• Mike Lowell is a good, not great baseball player.
  
• He's coming off a career year.
• He will be 33 when next season starts.
  
• No one wanted him a few years back when he was coming off a horrid year in Floridia.

Mike Lowell is not a great baseball player. I reserve the term great for players who play at a higher level than the rest of the league, year in, year out. Players like Jeter, Pujols, and now Howard is entering that mix. Pujols may be the most consistent player to ever pick up a bat. Howard had an off year by his measure, slumped bad in April, and still hit 47 home runs with 136 RBIs. How soon we forget that Lowell hit .238 (.298 OBP) in 2005 with 8 home runs and 58 RBIs in 150 games. Everyone is allowed to slump, but those numbers are simply atrocious. Even when Burrell had his worst season ever, when he hit .209, his OBS (.309), homers (21), RBIs (64) were all higher. And, admittedly I'm a Burrell guy, but did anyone ever noticed that the big guy legged out 4 triples that year (double his career high), meaning he was coming out of the box hard every AB and trying to earn that big paycheck he just signed?

Two full seasons ago, Mike Lowell was one of the worst third basemen in the league. Let that sink in a moment. The guy will be 33 when next year starts, warranting him about a 2, max 3 year deal. His average this year was a full 31 points higher than any other year of his career. His 120 RBIs were 40 more than last year with the same Boston hitters around him. He's only ever hit more than 30 home runs once, in 2003, and I hate to start playing this game, but the numbers to me, objectively, look like they could be performance enhancement induced. He never hit more than 24 homers previously, and never more than 27 since, but he managed 32 in only 130 games? His ABs per HR that season was 15.4, to a career 25.7 and 28 last year. Sometime to question, if nothing else.

There are positives to Lowell, and I'll note some here. He doesn't K a lot, as he's a contact hitter. Lowell's career high for strikeouts is 92, and he's consistently in the 60s and 70s. The Phillies lineup strikes out way too much, which makes them susceptible to offensive droughts, none more important than the lack of offensive production in the Rockies series. They need to add at least one bat to the middle of the lineup between Utley, Howard, Burrell and Rowand, that doesn't strike out 100+ (199 for Howard) in a season. Lowell also still plays a good 3b. That's important, as they try to bring ground ball pitchers to CBP, Moyer is still pitching another year, and Pat Burrell will be in left.

The VERDICT:
Offer him a 2 year, 22 Million dollar deal, with a club option for the 3rd with a nice buyout.

The market will clearly out price the Phils, but that's fine with me. Costanzo had another great year and looks like he'll be ready for a September call up possibly next year, an invitation to Spring Training the following, and joining the team for good in 2009 or 2010 at the latest. I'm guessing that Lowell has seen his best years, and I'm not convinced he won't relapse into his 2005 form, if even just for a half season. People simply don't get the buy low, sell high theory. The Red Sox stole Lowell as part of the Beckett trade a few years back. Now, every team will be in the mix for him as he just came off an MVP year.

I think the Phillies best options are to look at acquiring Hank Blalock, Miguel Tejada (assuming he will play 3rd), and Scott Rolen via trade. Blalock and Tejada both have 2 years on their deals and Rolen I believe has 3. This would give the Phils a proven veteran at third, with production and leadership they haven't seen since Rolen, himself. It will allow Costanzo time to progress, and send him a statement that says, "you're the future, kid." What it will take to acquire these players is beyond me. But if the Phils resign Rowand (which I strongly believe they should, but will go there in another post), I think Bourn makes a good trading chip, since there are 4 speedy outfielders in the minors (Greg Golson, D'Arby Myers, Dominic Brown and Quintin Berry) who at least 1 will be ready to go before Rowand (with new deal) or Victorino would be off the team.

Warning: Police Report Potential Baseball Sighting in Philadelphia

Just when you think they are out, they pull you back in! The Phillies, now sporting their first three-game winning streak of the season (let's be honest, first winning streak of the season), are starting to look like a real baseball team. That's three straight days with a solid starting effort, no blown saves, and a little bit of offense. Utley and Victorino have been ginormous over the last 3 games, and Rowand is riding a bit of a hitting streak. Rollins had a phenomenal day yesterday. Hopefully those guys all level off and stay as good as we think they are (or stay hot, that would be fine) and Howard wakes up. Then the offense is back to where we know it should be, and need it to be, and we can get back in this divisional race. Still plenty of Mets and Braves games left!

The purpose of this post is mostly to show that we do say positive things about the Phillies, too. Therefore, I won't mention the team's past experience with scoring 10 runs one day and 1 run the next. We can pitch and moan when they lose, let's just savor the winning streak (which I have now officially jinxed) while it lasts.

Substitutions

While Pete and I were at the Phils-Nats game last week, we were getting a little frustrated with the constant replacement of Burrell in the middle innings. Nearly every game, Bourn is pinch-running, pinch-hitting, pinch-fielding (a.k.a defensive replacement), or pinch-playing-seven-innings-because-the-bullpen-blows-the-lead for Burrell nearly every night. Even when Burrell pinch hits for Dobbs on Sunday, Bourn comes in and replaces him.

It's one thing to get Bourn in there for the 9th just to make sure the defense is set to hold the lead, it's entirely different to pinch run in the 6th when you are ahead. It's getting ridiculous, so we started wondering what else Bourn might be pinch-doing for Burrell. Burrell is a valuable commodity, so we have to protect him from reinjuring his foot or wrist or anything else, and Bourn is a rookie that we can abuse. So here's a partial list that we'll keep adding to when we get bored:

• Pinch-playing with the kids (see Griffey, Ken)
• Pinch-air guitar (see Zumaya, Joel)
• Pinch-mowing the lawn
• Pinch-taking out the trash (Bourn has to be able to do that faster)
• Pinch-running out for milk
• Pinch-changing a light bulb

But hey, this is a team. What could Burrell do for Bourn?

• Pinch-hitting the ball out of the infield
• Pinch-medical treatment (he's an expert)

For the record, I like both players, but that game was so boring, and the team so pathetic (hopefully this weekend is the start of turning it around), this is what we were driven to do.

Phillies and More

PHILLIES

Jeff and I attended the Phillies/Nationals battle for last place game today. While it's always entertaining to watch guys strike out on 72 mile per hour pitches from the crafty Jamie Moyer, they game was extremely boring to watch. Shane Victorino by the way, should have been so out on his steal attempt, but apparently, Lopez just blew the tag even though the throw was on the base.

Managing mistakes:

Chally didn't make too many boneheaded mistakes in this one. We supported his decision to leave Moyer in for the 8th, and to start the 9th (even at 106 pitches) because the bullpen needed an obvious rest heading into a long stretch of continuous games. He did, however, pinch run for Burrell with Bourn in the 6th inning, way too early in a still close game. An outfield of Bourn, Rowand, and Victorino for the final few innings ranks with the worst in baseball.

I can't remember the last time I felt confident about a win with a 4 run lead in the 9th...something is very wrong with this franchise. It's certainly fair for Moyer to give up a few hits his 4th time through the lineup. But then Gordon apparently wanted to make us sweat it out a little. If the Nats hit the grand slam to win it, Jeff and I were officially giving up on the team. That has been postoned for the time being.

Outfield

The Phillies really need to do something about their outfield situation. Michael Bourn is ready to play in the MLB, and if nothing else, should be playing full time in AAA rather than pinch running for Burrell. In Victorino, Rollins, and Bourn, the Phils have 3 incredibly fast players all with some degree of leadoff potential. Bourn and Victorino both deserve a shot to play center as well. Aaron Rowand needs to be traded soon. I would put him in right for the meantime, except he doesn't have the arm. Ideally, Victorino or Bourn should be traded too, since the team is not designed to lose power in right, especially with Burrell only getting 400 ABs a year.

It's also time to move Rollins down in the lineup. Victorino and Bourn deserve a shot at leadoff, and the way Rollins is hitting I think he would make a great 6 hitter. What this lineup is missing is a pure #2 hitter. Someone who doesn't strike out, who hits to all fields, with gap power. This hitter should either come from right or third the way the team is built. Helms may be that guy at this point in his career, but I think he strikes out too much. Victorino or Bourn may also develop into that guy, but I think if one leads off, the other is best suited for the 8 hole. That would help provide some offsense from our usually stagnant bottom of the lineup.

I don't think this team needs Barajas. I was fine with the signing at the time, but Ruiz has proven his worth. Coste also deserves to be on the team, and Jamarillo provides depth and should take over the backup job at some point next year. There was interest in Barajas this offseason, so I think we should scout any teams with injuries at the position.

Guys to trade:

I hate to put guys on the auction block, and sadly, a lot of these guys haven't drawn interest yet, but I think the team would benefit from addition by subtraction with trading a few of these guys.

• Rod Barajas
• Aaron Rowand
• Abraham Nunez or Danny Sandoval
  
• Chris Roberson
• Jon Lieber
• Tom Gordon
• Jamie Moyer
  

I understand we likely won't get anything for Nunez, Sandoval or Roberson, but I think these subpar players even being options bring down the team. How does Nunez already have 2 starts at third? He's the WORST hitter in the league. The lineup is already struggling. Sandoval is essentially the same player, we don't need both of them for any reason, it's hard to justify keeping one.

It's simply Rowand's time to go. He's in a FA year, and I have a feeling the Phils won't offer him arbitration. Trade him to the highest bidder by the deadline regardless of how the team is doing. Give Bourn some seasoning so he can move into at least a platoon spot next year.

I'm not sold on trading Lieber until Garcia is proven healthy. But either way, Lieber is the reason our opening day starter is in the bullpen, this is inexcusable. Hopefully he pitches well, and someone with a need, see Yankees, will offer us a few low level prospects.

I'm still waiting for Gordon's arm to fall off. I didn't like the risk in the 3 year deal to begin with and thought they should have traded him last season. He's going to become an expensive set up man eventually, and if he's still the team's closer next year, they aren't going anywhere to begin with. Oh why couldn't we have traded for Rafael Soriano?

The team owes it to Moyer to give him one last shot at winning. I like the way he mentors Hamels, and think he is an asset to the team. So trade him to a contender with the understanding that the minute he retires he can come be the pitching coach. This would let one of the younger guys come up and get a head start on pitching in the rotation next year.

NFL PROSPECTS SMOKE WEED

This is news? Come on! Everyone needs to get off of their high horse and stop pretending that marijuana is only used by criminals. How many politicians, police officers, and judges are smoking up right now?

RICKY WILLIAMS

Speaking of drug users, supposedly the Rams are interested in Ricky Williams if he is reinstated. Why don't the Eagles take a run at the guy? He's a low risk, high reward case. I think Andy keeps the distraction to a minimum, and if he makes the team, he's a big back to come in behind Westbrook and bruise some carries up the middle.

All you need to know about the 2007 Phillies

ESPN, as you know from their SportsCenter commercials, is the king of subtle. I think we all know what they are trying to tell us:
Caption for the symbolism impaired: ESPN has had so little occassion to load the Phillies logo for their game scoring summaries, that my computer couldn't figure out how to find that picture.

Apparently Charlie Manuel yelled at a talk radio host (Eskin) "we are going to win" among other profanities. People talk about Lou Pinella's blow ups, but Charlie never shows his frustration like that. I just can't see him yelling "What's our record? 3-9. How'd we ever win 3?" But maybe he should.

Wake me up when we win two in a row.

The First Series

Well, that sucked. The Phillies lose three to the Braves to start the season. Maybe the warmer weather in Florida will help. These games looked just like last season: too many strikeouts, no hitting with runners in scoring position, bullpen blows two leads but is great in the game they needed a bunch of innings. Burrell's strikeouts were just as predictable as always, and he got booed by the few fans who stuck around even though the Phils were down 8-1 and it was snowing. Someone even tossed a beer bottle into the outfield towards the end of Thursday's game. This is why I hate Phillies fans.

And Ryan Howard is PISSED. He is still out there shaking his head playing in the field after striking out. I don't think he will struggle for too long, but I wonder how long it takes for someone to say on ESPN that the Phillies were so smart for waiting on this guy after getting burned on Burrell's contract. Instant wisdom like that is really only a suit and tie away from booing a harmless strikeout in April.

So now Charlie Manuel is back on the hot seat, as if Jimy Williams could possibly say something different if they give him a bigger office. Using Madson was the right move both times, although double-switching for the catcher when you are only carrying 2 catchers is strange...at this point, the players aren't doing it, and they weren't doing it for Bowa either. But it does suck to watch.

The Phils also continue to stockpile arms by acquiring Francisco Rosario from Toronto for cash. Certainly can't hurt.

First Day of Summer

In my calendar, today is the First Day of Summer. You can tell because it's Opening Day. This works much beter with people who talk about hope and beginning anew - that is the stuff of spring, and spring training. Now it is April, and we can start eliminating the Orioles, Nationals, Devil Rays, Royals, Rockies, and Pirates from playoff contention.

Luckily for me living in DC, we are opening against the Braves, which means I get the game on TBS. As I sit here watching the first pitch (fastball, outside corner, strike 1!) of the Phillies' season, here are a few Phillies predictions to put me on the record for 2007.

1. Cole Hamels will not win 15 games. Brett Myers will. Hamels is still a year away, because he will walk too many.

2. Pat Burrell will drive in 100 runs.

3. Ryan Howard will hit 50 home runs.

4. If he isn't your hero yet, Chase Utley will be your hero by the end of the year.

5. I will not have goosebumps. It's going to be a fun year anyway.

Jeff's NL Predictions

NL East
1. Mets
2. Phillies
3. Braves
4. Marlins
5. Nationals
Pedro, Manuel, and deep July pockets make the difference. Both teams have questions, and they were 11 wins apart last year - did the Mets get 5 games worse, and did the Phillies get 5 games better? I don't know that either of those things are true. It will be close, but we'll be on the wrong side.

NL Central
1. Cardinals
2. Brewers
3. Cubs
4. Astros (I'm assuming no Clemens)
5. Reds
6. Pirates
St. Louis has to be dethroned before I take someone else here. They have to be healthier this season, and I think the pitching will still be good. The Brewers move up based on pitching, but Pujols can carry the Cardinals offense, and the Brewers are young. Maybe I'm a sucker, but I think the Cubs are a lot better, and the Astros did not get better by losing Pettite and probably Clemens. This is a tough division to finish and 1-4 could be completely flipped without surprising anyone, unless the Cubs ended up on top, because come on, it's the Cubs.

NL West
1. Dodgers
2. Giants (counting on Bonds to stay out of injuries and indictment)
3. Padres
4. Diamondbacks
5. Rockies
Why do people think Arizona will be good? Their most experienced regular is Eric Byrnes. No one on their team has 100 career home runs. Their closer was demoted last season. Maybe they are this year's 2006 Marlins, but that's probably just wishful thinking. Randy Johnson definitely won't pitch like he did last time he was in Arizona, but I don't think he is done either.

Wild Card - Phils. I smell an August surge again, just not from as far behind this time.

I have lost the ability to look at this season objectively. By picking the Phillies second, I might be downplaying their talent and their upgrade from last year just because I don't want to overhype them with my fandom. But I may also be disrespecting the Marlins' young talent or the Braves' strength and off-season changes. So I can't pick the Phils to win the division....but I'm not sold on a second place team anywhere else. Maybe the Brewers, who lots of people have winning the Central, are good enough to beat up on a weaker division and take the wild card from the teams bruised in NL East battles, but I don't buy it. So I'll take the Phillies to surge late, win the wild card, and run the table in the playoffs.

I mean, I can't pick them to lose to the Mets, right? So screw that, screw objectivity - Philles 4 games to 2 over Detroit in October. I might be wrong, but if someone else wins, what's the fun in being right?

Jeff's AL Predictions

AL East
1. Yankees
2. Red Sox
3. Blue Jays
4. Devil Rays (yeah, I know)
5. Orioles
The Red Sox finished in 3rd last year and added J.D. Drew...I can't pick them to win the division.

AL Central
1. Tigers
2. Twins
3. Indians
4. White Sox
5. Royals
Wow, what a deep divsion. My 4th place team could win and it wouldn't be much of an upset. However, I don't buy the Indians like Buster Olney...I'm just hoping they are good enough to make my wild card pick right.

AL West
1. A's
2. Angels
3. Mariners
4. Rangers
Texas, by the way, has a quite impressive cast of former Phillies - Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Bruce Chen, and Robinson Tejeda in the rotation, with Marlon Byrd and Kenny Lofton in the outfield. Which is probably why I think they'll be bad.

Wild Card - Red Sox. And I feel terrible about that pick, because I'll look like an ass when the Indians and Twins make the playoffs.

League champ is the Tigers. The pitching is just too good, and they added Sheffield for some extra swagger. I saw Steve Phillips and Tim Kurkjian discussing the AL pitching on SportsCenter this morning, going through best fastball, curve, change, etc. Nearly every category had a Tigers pitcher mentioned. Jim Leyland has to have another year of magic in him, right?

Plus, I love Placido Polanco. Senior circuit tomorrow.

Lieber to the Pen

I'm impartial on Jon Lieber...and I'm saying this is a mistake!

You simply do not take an opening day starter from 2006 and put him in the bullpen to start 2007, barring an injury hindering his abilities. Especially when you are replacing him in the rotation with a free agent signing with a far less reputable career. Last year was Lieber's first season over 4.5 ERA in his last 10 years. That's consistency. Add in the fact that he's usually among the league leaders in walks per 9, and you don't simply demote a guy like that to the bullpen in a heartbeat.

Even if the Phillies have given up on Lieber, which looks to be right given their apparent attempt to trade him, they should still showcase him early in the season for trade value. What does it say to other teams when you don't think the guy is good enough to start for you? Adam Eaton is no Cy Young.

Adam Eaton should have gone to the pen. He's injury prone, and new to the team. He should have to earn his stripes. What does this do to team chemistry when guys like Ryan Howard, who has still yet to earn his payday despite his efforts, sees a guy with a spotty past, come in on a huge paycheck, and get handed a starter job over last season's opening day pitcher?

This doesn't bode well for the team. If this was Manual's decision, it proves he's a moron. Though, I doubt it was all him since he loves veterans, especially players he's gotten to know.

Lieber's career ERA is 4.33, certainly good enough to be a 4th/5th starter in the MLB, especially for this team. Unless there is something going on here below the surface, this move is ill-advised in my mind. The Phillies really need to come out of the gates firing. Lieber was pitching well in Spring Training, and this may simply trip this team up and force them to chase the division through the dog days of summer like years past. I'm disappointed to say the least.

The Pitcher's Effect on a Teams' Phyche

Pitchers

As we all sit back and watch Gavin Floyd continue his self implosion, I caught a headline today that not only is Mark Prior not going to make the Cubs rotation, but Kerry Wood is having arm problems again. I started thinking, starting pitchers may only play every fifth day, but they can have a potentially huge effect on the team.

Gavin Floyd dragged down the Phillies for the last several years. It was just his woeful starts in the majors, it was the team longing for what should have been. When a pitcher was struggling, everyone wanted Floyd called up, and wished him the best. But after he kept tormenting us with his inconsistency, we would curse him out, until he showed promise again. The vicious cycle is over. Gavin Floyd was never going to find his niche in Philadelphia, not after the ride he took us on. yet he would probably have remained an outside shot at the rotation every year and a the first guy called from the minors for spot starts. He wouldn't be the worst guy to fill that role, it simply isn't enough from a first round pick.

Mark Prior and Kerry Wood have destroyed the Cubs in similar fashion. You couldn't trade you first born child for either of these guys a few years ago. They came into the majors on blazing fastballs and were supposed to lock down the Cubs rotation for years. Instead, they have the rotation locked up. They come into camp every year with promise, but end up on the DL, leaving the Cubs with more holes to fill. It would literally be better if they just didn't show up in the first place. No one would get their hopes up, therefore eliminating the disappointment and scrambling to find replacements.

On the same token, a true "ace" can do so much more for a team than pitch every fifth day. A guy that proves that he can rise to the occasion and win a big game when he has to or stop a losing streak will also put his team at ease. He may cut the tension that mounts after a few losses, and literally get the team to rally around him just based on the confidence they have in his abilities. The same can be said for a lights out closer. Up by a run or two late in a game, with a shaky bullpen, the hitters will still be pressing to score more runs leading to unproductive atbats. Knowing that the game is all but over makes insurance runs a bonus, not a premium, which ultimately helps the offense relax and puts the pressure on the other teams' pitcher and batters.

Another example can be seen with Eric Gagne. After three straight dominating seasons as LA's closer, Gagne was lost for the year early in 2005. The Dodgers dropped from 1st in their division in 2004 to last in 2005. They rallied in 2006 after losing Gagne again, no doubt more mentally prepared and with a deeper bullpen the second time around. They needed to let him go in order to move on as a team.

What does this all mean? I think getting rid of Floyd will do wonders for the psyche of the team, nearly to the tune of shipping out Abreu. Let the rookies and seasoned guys like Brito provide spot starts and push the incumbent starters. That's what's supposed to happen. But 23/24 year old #1 picks aren't supposed to give you questions, they are supposed to provide answers. Well Gavin, the gig is up. How much longer can Ken Williams feed the media the BS confidence before you find yourself in AAA again with no hopes of getting back to the majors.

Cheaters

Oh, and I HATE Gary Matthews Jr. Can anyone say Brady Anderson? The guy is little better than an average back up his whole career...then in his 30s, he all of the sudden turns into an all star caliber player, doing things his body simply wasn't capable of before? The gig is up on you, too, Gary. After two weeks of self denial, everyone can see through your BS comments. Man up for once, admit you wanted the money and the spotlight, so you cheated. Retire from baseball with the dignity that you were at least honest with yourself. And give the Angels back the outrageously stupid contract they awarded you.

Starting to find relief?

Sorry Pete, we are bringing up the Lieber thing again. I read today that the Phils are now talking about using Lieber or Eaton in the bullpen, since the trade offers for Lieber aren't good. I still think its an injury away from falling into place, but if all our bullpen hopefuls are struggling, this becomes an intriguing, if short term, solution.

The question is: which one? I dont know who has the stuff that is better suited for the bullpen. Lieber is more the workhorse type pitcher, not going to miss starts and going to give you lots of innings. Eaton would be that guy if healthy, although even if they both made 35 starts, I'd wager on Lieber throwing more innings. Lieber gives up more homeruns, but he pitched in the Bank last year as opposed to Eaton in big park San Diego for a few seasons, so it's hard to tell. Neither walks that many guys, and Lieber's walk to strikeout ratio is great.

It isn't a cost issue, because their salaries are about the same. Both have expressed a willingness to do whatever it takes, and to pitch in Philadelphia. But if the Phillies still want to trade Lieber, they probably have to leave him in the rotation. He may pitch well in the pen and show some teams his versitility, but they will sell him as a starter and he will be bought as a starter. Besides, we wouldn't trade him for bullpen help if he was good in the bullpen, unless someone really overwhelmed us with multiple pitchers for Lieber. Eaton, on the other hand, might benefit from the bullpen, if he is as injury prone as I think he is. It hasn't been an endurance issue, but nagging injuries, which might be reduced if he throws fewer pitches per night. Unless you are worried about Lieber's weight, like the whole media seems to be, then maybe not asking him to go out for 7 innings and 110 pitches is for the best.

Probably need a scout to make this call, someone who can evaluate their stuff rather than try to remember what they look like by reading a few superficial stats on the web. What do you think?

More Spring Training Notes

We are one third of the way through March, even though I am close to completing my first season in MLB '07 "The Show," which, if you were considering buying a baseball game this year, definitely buy The Show over 2k7. The 2k series have always been subpar, and even bringing in one of the top guys from the now retired EA MVP series didn't help. Aside from bad gameplay, it supposedly has a ton of bugs, which include batters occasionally standing backwards in the box. The Show plays well, and a new feature allows you to create a rookie and fight your way onto a minor league and pro team, but only having to play your player's events (ABs, pitching, fielding, etc.), which makes the game go quickly. I'll forgive them for the default roster having Werth start over Victorino.

Back to real baseball:

Greg Dobbs will make the Phillies. He is hitting .500 with 5 home runs (2 of which were in "unofficial" games). Even though I don't believe in the need for a "Lefty" bench player (I think someone that hits righties well, like Coste, does the trick), having a guy like Dobbs who can play multiple positions and give you some pop will help this team. Looking over his stats, he has played 1st, 3rd, but also LF and RF in his short career with the Mariners. He had two errors his rookie season at 3rd, and hasn't made an error in limited opportunities since then. Interestingly, he was drafted twice, but eventually signed as a free agent. He refused to sign after being taken in the 52nd round in 96, and again in the 10th round in 99. Somehow his stock plummeted and the Mariners (the team that drafted him in 96) signed him as a minor league FA in 2001. I don't know the story, but it seems to me like a guy who never got his chance, in the Coste mold, but about 5 years younger.

Ryan Madson is adding a slider. Thank goodness. His curveball was worthless last year. More and more, effective bullpen guys need more than a two pitch arsenal. Madson's fastball-changeup combo is above average, but they lose effectiveness when the hitter can sit on one or the other. You almost always need a pitch with movement to keep the hitters off balance, and hopefully he can hone his new slider to at least put it in the back of hitters' minds and throw it once or twice an inning.

Garcia's fastball is slow and flat. Before we raise the white flag, we need to give this evaluation some time. Last season he lost velocity down the stretch, but that was probably due to pitching the entire postseason and then the World Baseball Classic. As a veteran, he is off the hook for the spring, as long as he gets himself ready. He could go out there and throw one pitch in the same location for 3 innings if he wanted. And it's still early, if his fastball is slow and flat in the last week of spring training, then it's time to worry.

Gavin Floyd is getting rocked, but still being fed fake confidence. Let the White Sox deal with it. We are so relieved to be looking from the outside in right about now. He's giving up a run an inning right this spring (I don't care if some are unearned, the error could be on him for all I know). I don't know what else there is to do for him other than have his Mom manage the team and his Dad be his pitching coach. His ego is more delicate than Eaton's finger. By the way, Gio Gonzalez is scoreless in his first 4 innings pitched.

What to do with Lieber. This isn't a serious question until opening day. Someone, including us, will have another starter injury and will be desperate for a guy who can eat all the donuts in the clubhouse. Worse things have happened than entering the season with 6 starters. As long as someone besides Manuel is making the decisions, I'm OK with it. But were' not raising this issue again until April.

How good does it feel to see the Braves and Marlins lose Starting Pitching. I don't know about you, and maybe I'm sadistic, but I was happy to see Hampton and Josh Johnson both go down for a couple months. Couple that with the Nats only having about one pitcher, and the Mets with 3 guys hanging on by a thread, and we have the best pitching staff in the division by far. I do think we are the team to beat, even with a subpar bullpen.

None of the Rule 5s will make the team. Jim Ed Warden and Alfredo Simon have both been hit pretty hard so far. Unless one of these guys goes on fire to finish the spring, I don't think either are options for an already mainly inexperienced bullpen. The catcher may not have had a chance initially, but acquiring Barajas and Werth completely pushed him out of the picture.

Allen Iverson and Bobby Abreu...Two Peas in a Pod?

So the Sixers have turned around their season like the Phillies of '06...following the trade of their superstar...huh? So let me get this straight, Philadelphia franchises do better AFTER they trade away their best player.

The Phillies were 49-54 on the day that they dealt Abreu and Lidle to the Yankees for prospects. They finished the season on a 35-23 tear...narrowly missing the playoffs.

This year's Sixers were 5-18 with Iverson (though he wasn't playing everyday and eventually sent home) and are 19-20 without him, currently only 4 1/2 games out of the pathetic Eastern Conference playoff picture.

While no one can debate the talent of these well respected players (except for Abreu's offensive Gold Glove), their respective eras in this city were similarly over. It is nearly impossible for a franchise to change their losing ways while maintaining the same personnel, especially the face of the franchise. Iverson's 11 seasons here, highlighted by the Finals loss to the Lakers, had simply run their course. The team could not get any better with him as their leader, and he could never play a supporting role (nor would it have been right). The strange thing is, if the Sixers somehow climb into the playoffs, riding their current 6 game winning streak, they still may end up with a lottery pick, as Denver is struggling right now, only 1 1/2 games ahead of 9th place Sacramento. The same could be said about Abreu...a city can only take so many narrow playoff misses before they turn on their superstars.

At season's end, I think that the Sixers miss the playoffs. Aside from getting a shot at the lottery (albeit with much reduced odds than thought a month ago) they maintain their first round pick, which is protected through the lottery and lowest seeded playoff spot to the Warriors from a four-team trade in 2003. The pick has been protected through the top 15 and been delayed for 4 years (passing from Atlanta to Dallas to Golden State), and King finally agreed to buy the pick out for $1 Million. Therefore, the Sixers capturing the 7th playoff spot could be disastrous for the team.

I think Denver pulls it together and makes the playoffs. The team simply cannot play as bad as they are right now. They are young, and sometimes stupid, but I think Iverson puts on some spectacular shows down the stretch. That being said, their pick should fall into the teens. Dallas' pick, of course, will be worthless, and will hopefully be packaged along with either Denver's or the Sixers'. The last pick in the first round is worth less than the top 3 to 5 picks in the 2nd round because the money is guaranteed for the same second tier talent. Plus, this team is already young and would not benefit from 3 rookies (especially since they could no longer take a developing high school player and stash him in the D League).

So another Philadelphia team is seeing a resurgence since trading the face of the franchise. The Flyers are following suit trading half of their veterans, but it's impossible to play any worse so they are expected to rebound slightly. The same thing could happen to the Eagles if they miss the playoffs or McNabb gets hurt again.

Spring Questions

You can keep your pagan sun worshipping - on the Calendar of Jeff, the first day of spring is the first day with a full slate of MLB exhibition games. In 2007, that fell yesterday, March 1 (the Phils lost to Detroit 9-7, and no one cared). It is not as holy a day as the first day of summer or the day pitchers and catchers report, but it is a cause for celebration nonetheless.

We've been pretty quiet during Spring Training so far because, well, there is nothing interesting to talk about. Everyone in Phillies camp is saying and doing the right things - even Mike Schmidt. Without any controversy, any injuries, or any feet inserted into mouths, what are we supposed to talk about? Here are 5 interesting questions to follow during Phillies camp (in no particular order). Although I have no insider knowledge about any of them, this is what I'll be watching for and complaining about for the next month.

1. Whither Jon Lieber?
Probably the biggest question this spring is where Jon Lieber is going. He will pitch for a major league club somewhere in some capacity, and I'm not sure if that is going to be in Philly or not. I can't see any of our 6 starters ending up in the bullpen. Pete has mentioned to me moving Moyer, because he could bounce back into the starting rotation and he throws junk so he can pitch consecutive nights. While that's probably true, he likely won't get enough work doing that. He would have to be used as a mop up guy or a lefty specialist, and end up getting one out per night, and I just don't see that with a guy who throws slower than highway traffic. Myers is a bulldog and could close, but he is a front of the rotation guy.

I see one of two scenarios: 1) Lieber gets dealt during spring training for less than we want back for him, marginally improving the bullpen, or 2) someone on our staff gets a minor injury and Lieber stays around on a 6-man rotation for a month or so, protecting the injured guy and injury prone Hamels and Eaton (or rather, whichever of them wasn't the first one with the injury). Then Lieber gets dealt to some other club with a pitching injury.

2. Who's on 3rd?
More importantly, does it matter? Nunez has the defense, Helms has the power...I lean to Nunez, since we score plenty of runs as it is and could use power on the bench. Of course, that assumes Nunez can manage to raise his average to at least .250.

3. What does the Lieby-less world look like?
I'm actually a Lieberthal fan, but in any case, his era has ended. Ruiz and Barajas are competing for the starting job, but it probably goes to Barajas unless and until he completely struggles. Ruiz will probably catch twice a week anyway. The big question is Chris Coste, who completely deserves a roster spot and can play the corner infield even if he isn't catching. It will be a shame if they don't keep him.

4. Can you throw a 6 seem fastball, and if so, what would it do?
Antonio Alfonseca is going to be our set up man? Really? This bullpen scares me, I'll be honest. If Gordon gets hurt, we have humongous problems. Hopefully he gets injured in a fight with a starter on another club who also happens to have two quality closer candidates, or we have problems.

5. Will Pat Burrell get to play 9 innings?
Burrell has too much talent and too much money to not be given every opportunity to hit 5th, play every day, and play every inning. If you keep taking him out of games when he is already struggling, and his struggles are already in his head, he is just going to put more pressure on himself in the 6th inning when he thinks its his last chance. Give him a shot at playing a full game. Besides, I don't want Werth hitting too often, do you?

One last note: I need to amend my list of offseason bad moves to add the loss of Scott Graham from the broadcasting team. I like him, and it's a shame he is gone, although I won't miss his ice cream commercials. He is a lot of fun as an announcer, whether it's the Phillies or the Big 5. I'll still be putting them in the win column for the Fightin' Phils all season.

League Predictions - NL

Continuing from yesterday, we move to the National League. Again, first my friend Matt's predictions:

NL East
Mets, Phils, Braves, Marlins, Nats

NL Central
Brewers, Cardinals, Reds, Astros, Cubs, Pirates

NL West
Dodgers, Dbacks, Padres, Rockies, Giants

WC:
Phils

My Picks:

NL

East

Phillies - This isn't strictly a hometown pick. The Phillies weakest area last season was starting pitching. Only 61 of their 85 wins were attributed to starters...nine different pitchers. The Phillies solidified their rotation going into this season. I did rough estimates for each of the starters based on their previous 3-5 years and potential (in Hamels case.) My estimates gave me 68 wins for the starters (the math can be seen at the end of this post.) With the same bullpen (ignoring that more starter wins gives less chances of bullpen wins), my conservative estimates would put the Phillies at 92 wins.

Mets - This team simply has too many holes in their starting pitching to contend with the Phillies. In a key series late in the year between the teams, who are the Mets going to throw that can possibly shut down the Phillies offense? Pedro's career as we know it is over. Glavine is hanging by a few threads to get those last few wins to solify his HOF career. Orlando Hernandez is not the pitcher he once was. And with the young pitchers they will bring to camp, it's difficult to pitch in the Big Apple as it is, let alone as a rookie. This team is good, but not great...last year was their year, and they blew it. I will give them the wild card though...and a first round playoff exit.

Marlins - This will be a shocker as the Fish will beat out the Braves and finish not far behind the Mets. This team had about half of it's young players produce last year. Look for a few other young players to come around, along with the continued development of last year's stars. They had 6 players who got rookie of the year votes, and will have a few more this year. This team is 2 years away from their next World Series appearance, so the Phillies must take their chances now.

Braves - This team improved their bullpen from last season, but lost it's first basemen (who they sold high) and their second basemen (who they sold low). A bullpen can only do so much without a solid pitching staff and good offense. Look for Andruw Jones to be traded when this team is floating below .500 around the deadline.

Nationals - They don't deserve to be mentioned in this post. The non-trade of Soriano last year was a disaster. They didn't give up too much to get him, but letting him go for free was moronic, especially considering he didn't help the team win anything. All 5 rotation spots are up for grabs, since Patterson still needs to prove he's healthy.

Central

Brewers - This division is nearly impossible to predict. And while the Cubs spent all the money, the Brew Crew quietly solidified an underrated team. They have the most balance, with a solid rotation, a very good bullpen, a few rising stars, and a good mix of veterans. I expect this team to come firing out of the gate and open some eyes in April while the Cubs wilt under the pressure. I think this team has the balance and depth to sustain the season.

Cubs - No matter how good the Cubs look on paper, they never seem to figure it out. Soriano's contract was one of the worth of the offseason, and I'm glad it wasn't the Phils behind it. Changing a guy's position for the second straight season is not a great idea. The wildcard for this team has always been Wood and Prior. If the two of them somehow put their careers back together (Wood as a closer), with Zambrano and the offense they've assembled (D Lee is a sleeper going into this year), they will handle the Brewers for the division. But like I said, never bet on the Cubbies.

Cardinals - The world champs will be huge flops. If there ever was a team that needed to do SOMETHING in the offseason following a championship to compete the following season, it was this team of overachievers. Outside of Pujols and Rolen, Edmonds is getting old, and Eckstein will likely come down to earth. There was a reason this team won less games than the Phillies. I am still mad about that.

Reds - This is a decent team, but losing Griffey will not help (what a shame...him and Grant Hill should take up chess). Their rotation is average, and they have a few good youngsters floating around. I think this team is a year away from contending, especially in this division.

Astros - It's the end of an era with Bagwell not coming to camp this year. Biggio overachieved last year. The Lee signing was of desperation, and they will get burned badly in a few years. Bringing back Richard Hidalgo is just stupid. This team has a few good pieces, but simply has too many holes for this division.

Pirates - At least the hockey team is finally playing well. Even with LaRoche, the team will still be last in the league in homers. This team is years and many smart decisions away from contending.

West

Dodgers - The Schmidt and Wolf signings were exactly what this team needed. They will lead with their pitching, and follow with a lineup that got slight upgrades from last season. They do need one of their young outfielders to step up and replace Drew's production.

Padres - Adding Maddux and Wells may backfire if both struggle to stay healthy due to their age. Losing Piazza and Roberts from an already anemic offense will hurt, though I expect a good season from Marcus Giles and a few of the young players. I expect this team to play slightly above average baseball.

Giants - I hate this team. Zito is not as good as advertised, and Bonds will hopefully finish the year in prison (way to drop the ball in that interview Howard. Next time, just say "no comment." Bonds is a lier and a cheater.) Their rotation is decent. But frankly, until this team ditches Bonds, they will not win.

Arizona - This team has a good rotation and will have a few young players trying to break through this season. I like them to challenge the Giant for third place.

Rockies - I like this team a lot more than most last place teams. I think they did the right thing selling high on Jennings. They will take this year to get some of their young talent sorted out, and could make a push late, or simply make some noise next season.

Final Thoughts

My predictions have the Phils starters like this:

Moyer

Last 6 years: 20, 13, 21, 7, 13, 11,
2007: 13

I actually like him more than Lieber or Eaton for the bullpen early in the season if we can't trade Lieber. He's got a rubber arm, throws junk, and would provide some lefty experience in the pen.

Myers

Last 4: 14, 11, 13, 12
2007: 13

I see Myers being a solid #2 for his whole career. He's still young, but I think he's too up and down to be an ace. I think he's good for 12-16 wins for a few years, though.

Eaton

Last 4: 9, 11, 11, 7
2007: 11

Those last two numbers represent shortened seasons. This guy has the stuff to be a very good #3 if he's healthy. I know that's a big if, but I think he gives up more than 20 starts this year, and hits double digit wins.

Hamels:

2007: 16

In his last 90 or so innings, this kid put together 8 wins...stellar for a guy his age. Look for him to double that inning and win total this season.

Garcia

Last 6: 16, 12, 13, 14, 17
2007: 15

I combined two seasons for the 13 win number above (about 10 games and 20 game seasons). He will inherit the ace role, and continue pithing in front of a good offense like the ChiSox. I think this is a low estimate, if his stuff transfers favorably over to the NL, I look for him to get 16-18 wins with his rubber arm.

League Predictions - AL

In the absence of baseball news, I decided to make my predictions for the upcoming baseball season. This includes a mini guest posting from my friend Matt, who sent me his own predictions:

AL East
Red Sox, Yanks, Blue Jays, Orioles, DRays

AL Central
Indians, White Sox, Twins, Tigers, Royals

AL West
Angels, Rangers, A's, Mariners

WC:
Yanks

I will go into a little detail for each of my picks.

AL

East

Boston - I hate this division. I'd love to take the Blue Jays here avoiding the evil empires, but Boston's pitching staff is insane, and even without a closer, they will score a ton of runs and are one of the top 3 teams in baseball. With all the press going to DM, I think Papelbaum will actually steal the show and continue his dominance from the starter's spot. Seriously, DM, Schill, Paps, Beckett, Wakefield, Lester...5 or possibly 6 guys that could be aces on other teams (think Nationals).

Yankees - Their rotation, outside of Wang, is simply underwhelming. Petite will replace Johnson's innings, as well as his effectiveness. Mussina's more likely to return to his 04/05 numbers than replicate 06 as he approaches 40. You can't count on rookies, especially pitchers, in New York. They have distractions in Bernie and A-Rod. Barring a major midseason move, I see them settling for the Wild Card (mostly because there isn't much competition for the WC in the AL). This is assuming they will are a player in the Clemens sweepstakes.

Blue Jays - Last year's Cubs couldn't maintain their momentum and lost a few players this offseason. Assuming they stay healthy, they will play slightly better than .500 baseball and still beat up on the O's and DRays.

Orioles - They are a disaster. Leo Mazzone's magic simply hasn't transferred to the AL. They could not afford to lose Kris Benson. They need to trade everyone over 30 and start over.

DRays - Will have potentially the best outfield in baseball, but not much else. They are slowing getting better in one of the hardest divisions. They could challenge the O's for fourth place, though.

Central

Detroit - The team without any holes still managed to add Gary Sheffield. While at least one of the young pitchers are bound to slump, the team has the most depth of any in baseball. The rest of the division seemed to take a step back, while they inched forward.

Cleveland - This was a better team than they played last year. Good play from young players and healthy seasons from veterans will float them just above Chicago. They will also have a pair of former Phillies (Michaels and Dellucci) sharing time in the outfield.

ChiSox - I still can't figure out why they traded Garcia, AND THEN traded McCarthy. It seems like the Sox spent the offseason getting better for 08. Counting on Gavin Floyd to hold down the 5th starter spot could be a disaster. I think Thome will take a step back from last season's numbers. The other FAs-to-be starting pitchers are sure to be gone at the trade deadline if the team struggles, leaving them to finish flat.

Twins - Losing Liriano will hurt this team more than one can imagine. I think Silva is an ok #3, but I don't like him as a 2, especially after his injuries. They don't have the offense to carry a subpar pitching staff (after Santana). If Morneau or Mauer get hurt or take a step back, they are in big trouble. Tori Hunter will get traded before the end of the season.

Kansas City - Please just contract this team. Alex Gordon should be a stud, but after so many bad years, shouldn't they have a team full of top 5 draft picks?

West

A's - Losing Zito won't hurt that much, as he's simply not as good as he used to be, and the A's have depth behind him. Losing Thomas won't hurt either with Piazza coming in. They may not reach last year's 93 wins, but they held their ground while the other teams didn't close the gap.

Angels - While the Matthews signing was terrible, it does sure up a shaky outfield, and return Figgins back to his super Utility role. Their rotation should be good, even without Colon, and any team with Vlad will score runs. That being said, I only expect about 86 wins from this team.

Rangers - Their rotation is serviceable, and I think Teixera, Blalock and Wilerson return to their previous form. The question mark is Gagne, who if healthy, could give them an extra 2-5 wins. I am betting on him missing time again, or at least losing effectiveness, and this team barely missing the Angels.

Seattle - Trading Soriano for Ramirez was inexcusable. Especially because I wish the Phillies would have given them Lieber and even Roberson if they wanted for him. They should, but probably won't, lose Ichiro after this season. This team needs to rebuild.

Keep an eye out for the NL predictions tomorrow.

Looking Back...the 1997 MLB Amateur Draft

I was thinking about Jeff's comment regarding his preference about keeping Randy Wolf over Jamie Moyer. I decided that since Moyer pitched for us as long as Wolf last season, what about Wolf compared to Adam Eaton, the new old Phillie? I had a feeling they've had similar careers to date, so I did some research. First, the stat lines (click them for bigger font...I can't figure out how to get tables to show up larger):

Wolf

Eaton

As you can see, Wolf has had the slightly more impressive career to date...and he's a lefty. The similarities between the players, however, go past the major league stats.

The facts:

Eaton was drafted in the first round by the Phils in the 1996 draft. Wolf was drafted in 1997 in the second, more on that to follow later.

Aside from similar major league stats, the two had the exact same ERA in the minor leagues, 3.63.

Eaton had more minor league innings (mostly due to rehad stints), and threw to a 30-26 record while Wolf ended his minors career at 20-14.

Both have clearly dealt with injuries in their career, Eaton most recently with his finger, and Wolf with his Tommy John surgery.

Wolf clearly has the rubber arm, throwing over 200 innings 3 times in his career. In Eaton's defense, he did throw 199.1 and 183 in two injury free seasons in San Diego (putting the comment about him never throwing 200 innings in perspective. Wolf threw 210, 206, and 200 even...not exactly blowing away the 200 mark, but reaching it nonetheless).

Both are good hitting pitchers, with almost identical career batting averages. Wolf has the slight edge as a career .194 batter to Eaton's .191.

Their slugging % is nearly identical, with Wolf again the slight leader at .280 to Eaton's .274. This is mostly due to the fact that Wolf has 4 career homers, to Eaton's two.

Wolf is a bit of a freeswinger, though, as Eaton leads the OBP by a huge margin at .270 to .235.

My theory about the Phillies letting Wolf go because they didn't want a pitcher outhitting Nunez over the course of a full season apparently couldn't have been more off with Eaton coming in the door. Maybe they figure he'll be rusty from the AL.

To my surprise, Eaton has actually stolen 5 bases in his career, getting thrown out only once. Wolf has never attempted.

What's this all mean? Well, of course I'd rather have Wolf back. Eaton, however, is nearly as good, when healthy, and the team already has two lefties diminishing the value of Wolf's lefthand (though they probably don't resign Moyer if Wolf stays). So, understanding the health concerns, I'm fine with Eaton as our #4/5. Actually I'm thrilled with it. At the end of the day, he's better and more consistent (even given the injury history) than Ryan Madson and Gavin Floyd, two-fifths of last year's season starting rotation. I understand he was expensive, but if we get two nearly healthy seasons out of him, it has to be considered a positive outcome.

I stand by my word, if we didn't get Eaton and the Garcia trade didn't happen, we would have been in a bidding war for Gil Meche and counting on Lieber not showing up to camp at 280 pounds. I also think we may have had to give up more for Garcia since we clearly would have been getting desperate, and the ChiSox would pitted us against the Mets or someone else. Instead, we had a full rotation already, and realized that they were desperate to get Gio Gonzalez back.

More on the 1997 Draft

Now playing third base for the Philadelphia Phillies: Troy Glaus.

Ok, this obvously isn't true. But do you know when Troy was drafted? Not just in 1997, but with the third pick overall. Right after we took J "D battery in the face" Drew. Can you imagine if the Phillies drafted and retained Glaus instead of Drew? An infield consisting of 4 All-Stars...with everyone just hitting their prime with Glaus only turning 30 this season. Sure he strikes out a lot and isn't known for his defense, but he averages 37 home runs per year. Ah to dream.

One a related note, I get extremely angry everytime I'm reminded that the Phillies had a trade worked out for Hank Blalock, until John Lieber decided to have his worst outing of the year against the Nats, I believe, right before the trade deadline. Blalock coming off a bad season for an overweight Lieber would have been an incredible heist. There would be no Wes Helms or Abe Nunez to worry about. No worrying about Pat Burrell. Manual could flip flop Burrel and Blalock behind Howard based on who was hot. What a nightmare for opposing pitchers!

Back to the former draft pick, known as schmuck. I thank the heavens that he did not win the World Series last year with the Cardinals. I may have to give up on baseball if he wins a ring before our beloveds do.

More on the 1997 draft, the first player taken, Matt Anderson by the Tigers, is out of baseball after a short career with an ERA over 7, proving that nothing is guarenteed. After Glaus was taken 3rd, his current teammate, Vernon Wells was taken 5, followed by Jon Garland at 10, Lance Berkman at 17, and even Adam Kennedy at 20, all players I'd rather have than our short time with Jason "Fisticuffs" Michaels who was our sandwich pick compensation for the schmuck not signing.

Oddly enough, Jayson Werth was taken with the 22nd pick in the first round...as a catcher. After Wolf was taken at 2 in the 2nd round, Scott Linebrink went at #4, a reliever mentioned in the Lieber and Rowand trade talks. Then, Chase Utley went at #76 overall to the Dodgers...as a shortstop. Utley went to UCLA and was drafted by the Phils in the first round in 2000. The Phils next 2 picks in the 1997 draft never went past A ball, and then in round 5 they drafted Derrick Turnbow, another guy mentioned in trade rumors.

Overall, the draft was a complete bust for the Phillies. They only selected one player who made an impact, and he is no longer with the team. A few better choices would have put this team in the playoffs a few times in the last couple years. It's amazing that an entire draft, with 50 rounds, netted the Phillies one major league baseball players. Thank goodness Arbuckle has learned from that debacle.

P.S.
I am a Flyers fan, but the team apparently did not like my credentials, so they are giving me nothing to write about in the first year of this blog. I guess I have to prove my writing skills before they will win again.

On that note, they beat Detroit tonight for a 6-1 win...a score that would have meant a whole lot between about 1998 and 2003. They are utterly terrible, and not yet even rebuilding, though Forsberg will be traded soon to the highest bidder a la Allen Iverson. They will feel the effects of Bobby Clark's "basher mentality" for a long time, however.

Off Season in Review

Sorry I've been gone for so long - sometimes that long, cold winter really gets to me. But now the sun is still up at 5pm, and we are just four days away from hearing those 4 beautiful words - pitchers and catchers report. That means the first day of spring is just around the corner - the Phils play their first MLB game on March 1 against Detroit. I don't care about your pagan groundhog rituals, your sunworshipping, or the fact that it will probably snow that day - when the Phillies start playing, its Spring. Cue up "Centerfield."

Anyway, although every indication is that Gillick isn't done dealing yet this year, let's take a look at the highlights from the offseason.

Best Moves of the Offseason
1. The Freddy Garcia trade - I don't care that we gave up some pitching potential for one year of a pitcher, this was a great trade and the kind of move we have to make to take it to the next level. Garcia is a top of the rotation winner and will hopefully take some pressure off of Myers (although Myers needs to be the team's ace because he is better than Garcia when he is in shape and throwing fastballs instead of punches).

2. Not giving away Lieber or Rowand - Lieber probably will be traded, and I won't have a problem for that as long as it gets us something good in return. Let's not try the switcheroo where Lieber goes for a decent outfielder and Rowand goes for a reliever - it had better be an All-Star closer who is willing to be the set up man while Gordon's arm stays on his body. Rowand is one of those guys that people who look at stats don't like - he strikes out too much, doesn't walk enough, doesn't have enough power, and isn't fast enough to cover the kind of ground that the A-list centerfielders do. But he plays great defense, fans love him, and players rally around him - he is the kind of guy that championship teams have (see Eckstein, David). And we might need Lieber if we have an injury (which we will).

3. Not signing Alfonso Soriano - yes, Soriano is a beast of a hitter, a base stealing machine, and apparently a pretty good outfielder. He also strikes out 100+ times a year and came with an insane price tag and long term contract that can drown a franchise. He replaces Burrell, and is better, but not enough different to change the make up of the team, except killing us when we sign Howard long term, also. Good non-move there.

Worst Moves of the Offseason
1. Not offering arbitration to Aaron Fultz - what was going to happen, we had to pay $3 million for one year of a reliable reliever? He probably wanted more years and was going to sign elsewhere, so we get a draft pick. If he signs, we get his pitching, which will be pretty solid once again. Don't say I didn't warn you when we make a trade in mid-July for a veteran lefty reliever who makes more money and isn't any more effective than Fultz. Not sure what they were thinking.

2. Signing Adam Eaton - I'll give Gillick the benefit of the doubt in two areas here: a) I thought at the time this was too much money, but it turns out that it is under-market, so good for them, b) I'll assume they didn't know we'd end up with Garcia. I also like the fact that we drafted 3/5 of our starting rotation and 4/8 of our starting lineup (Burrell, Rollins, Howard, Utley). But Eaton isn't that good and you just know he is going to get hurt. I can feel the injury coming, and I put the over-under at June 10.

3. (tie) Signing Wes Helms, Rod Barajas, and Jayson Werth - seriously, Wes Helms, Rod Barajas, and Jayson Werth are going to play for the World Series champions? Whatever. So Taguchi, I guess.

And a special bonus category, Absolute Ridiculous Move Of The Off-Season: $50M for Gary Matthews Jr. Well, maybe the Angels know more than I do, but from here, it looks like no one ever made more off of one catch since Aaron Rowand's plastic surgeon. Matthews hit .313-19-79 last year. Previous career bests were a .275 average, 17 HRs and 55 RBI. The Angels will be his 7th team in 9 years. He is 32. That, my friends, is Absolutely Ridiculous, with a capital A and a capital R.

Random Philly Sports Notes

Just some random recaps from the week:

Spring Training

The Phillies packed up their big rig for Clearwater. This article details exactly what goes to spring training with the team. My favorite:

There were 400 batting helmets on the truck? Four hundred?

"We have them with the [ear] flap on the left, with the flap on the right, and some with double flaps," Sheridan said. "We have them from size 6 7/8 to 8. Howard wears a 7 5/8. Todd Pratt wore an 8. And we have a few extra for Chase."

Sheridan explained that fiery second baseman Chase Utley can be a little hard on helmets.

"He'll go through six or seven a year," Sheridan said. "Somehow they end up having accidents, as he likes to say."

Schmidt and Burrell

Mike Schmidt critized Pat Burrell again, this time throwing Adam Dunn under the bus too, for striking out too much. This article details the interview.

Now I realize Schmidt has reached immortal status where he can say whatever he wants to the media (Curt Schilling is still striving to attain that status), but seriously, come on now, Mike! Critizing players for striking out too much, just like you, and saying they need to have a revelation, at 30, that you're having at 58. There isn't anything wrong with wishing the players well, but it comes off as a pointless scold from a stereotypical senile elder.

I'll ignore Adam Dunn because he doesn't mean anything to me. Schmidt is obviously the far better player than Burrell. Schimdt struck out 127 timees for an average 162 game season in his career to Burrell's 166. Schmidt's highest year exceeds Burrell's (180 to 162), though Burrell has been consisently higher (lowest career total is 130 to Schmidt's 80s towards the end of his career).

I realize Pat was a moron and refused Schimdt's help during his horrible slump year's back, but it seems like this interview was almost done out of spite. If Mike really wanted to help, I think he could have given Pat a call or paid him a visit to discuss things. Then, go to the media afterwards and talk about the chat they had. But, like I said, who am I to criticize Schmidt. Hopefully it doesn't shake Pat too much.

Jeff Garcia

This article pisses me off. Now I'll admit Jeff Garcia didn't pick the headline, and some of his words were most definitely taken out of context, but if Jeff Garcia is even thinking about leaving Philly for a starting role for a bad team, he's a complete and utter fool. The man is not starting QB material, not anymore atleast. He is for a few teams, but that only means that they don't have any talent on the roster. He just came from two bad situations (see Browns, Lions) where he got to start for last place teams. He's not getting any younger, and you would think he would be willing to resign with the Eagles for close to the minimum for another shot at the Super Bowl. Either that, or go start for the Bears since they clearly could have used him.

I also think it's a joke that another article I saw made resigning Garcia a priority saying the Eagles won't go to the Super Bowl without a capable back up behind McNabb. If McNabb doesn't stay healthy for a seaon, the Eagles will never win the Super Bowl during the McNabb era, unless we end up with the Joe Montana, Steve Young combination. McNabb is still the best quarterback on the team, and one of the best in the league. You need a back up to fill in for a couple games, but if he goes down for the season again, we are simply not winning it. The team is not built with enough talent to have a disposable quartback. It was nice that the players rallied around Garcia, but he should not be the QB of this team. Overpaying for a capable backup, such as him, would be a huge mistake this offseason. Let him start for a bad team for an inflated salary and a losing record.

Weird note:

I was looking at the Phillies spring training roster and noticed that Tom Gordon and Jamie Moyer, the team's two oldest players and integral parts of the team's pitching staff, share the same birthday (11/18) exactly five years apart. Combined, they have 83 years of life experience. The same amount as Chase, Jimmy and Ryan Howard combined (whose birthdays are all around the same time as well, 12/17, 11/27, and 11/19 respectively).

Sixers winning 6 of their last 10?

With tonight's 100-98 win over the Nets, the Sixers now have a positive winning percentage in their last 10 games. That's right...positive. Add to that note Iguodala and Dalembert's efforts in tonight's game.

AI: 23 pts (8-18) 7 Reb 15 A
Sam: 14 pts (7-10) 17 Reb 4 Blocks

15 Assists? 17 Rebounds? It was only the Nets, but come on, you have to be impressed.

Iggy has played in every game over the last 2 and a half seasons for the Sixers. This year, his shooting % has dropped slightly to 46%, while his free throw % has been the best in his career. His scoring is also way up to make up for the absense of Iverson and Webber, but his assists are way up as well, nearly 2 more than any other season. His turnovers are up, as he is forced to handle the ball more, but he leads the league at 2.1 steals per game, so his defense has been steadily great. He is quietly coming into his own.

Dalembert has been an enigma since he came to the Sixers. He finally seems to be earning part of that huge contract he signed this past offseason, however, as he's averaging almost 11 points, 8 rebounds and 2 blocks, in the most minutes per game of his career. His shooting has been ridiculous, as he's shooting 55.5% from the floor, and 72.8% from the line, both career highs.

Korver, Hunter, Miller and Joe Smith have all contributed this season as well. After searching to find themselves following the departures of their stars, this young team is starting to play basketball the right way. I hate to say it, but I'm glad they are far enough down in the standings that a few extra wins the rest of the season won't hurt their draft standing that much. But more important than draft position is the realization of the potential of the guys on the roster. This team will be legit in a few years. If they draft well with their 3 first rounders, I can see them as a low seed (7 or 8) in a terrible Eastern Conference next year. Once Webber's contract, and later Miller's (if they don't trade him) come off the books, a few key signings could push the team up to top 3 position in the conference. Now all this comes with the big IF, named Billy King. But Larry Brown may be back on the bench by that point and also making basketball decisions. Nevertheless, I'd rather root for an up and coming young team than for a group of overpaid, underperforming stiffs with a one man scoring show (I still love you Allen).

Oh, and it's still BS that Iggy didn't win the dunk competition. He should have won on that backboard dunk alone. I don't care how short Robinson is; it took him 15 trys to hit his final dunk. Iggy was a stand up guy. I'm glad he's blowing the competition off this year based on spite. This year should be good, however, with Gerald Green, Dwight Howard, and rubberband man Tyrus Thomas. And oh yea, that punk Nate Robinson will be back, too. Sends a great message to the kids...suspended 10 games, come back to the dunk competition. The NBA makes one bad decision after another.

Thoughts on the Super Bowl

My thoughts on the Super Bowl:

The Bears got a kickoff return for a TD, and still couldn't make it a game. How ugly would it have been without Hester's return?

The squib kicking was a joke, they could have kicked it out of bounds with the same result. It was like intentionally walking Howard for the rest of the game after a first inning home run.

The first quarter was an awesome disaster.

I've never seen two sets of back to back fumbles in the same game before.

The angle coming out of Rex Grossman's hand on passes over 10 yards is greater than 45 degrees.

The 12 men on defense challenge was a little strange, but how didn't they have a camera angle on it? This is the Super Bowl for heaven's sake.

They need to redo the challenge rules to allow unlimited correct challenges. Regardless of if the Colts were right about the first one, they were right about the second one, and should have been granted another challenge if they needed it.

That ref that overturned the sideline catch before it was overturned by the booth is a tool. He didn't have position to make that call or overturn the ref who did.

I know it was raining, but the Colts initial reaction to winning the game was extremely bland, at least from what the TV showed.

Brian Urlacher seemed to point his finger at someone else after every Colts first down. Grow up.

The Bears defense has not been dominating since about week 12.

The need to get rid of the stupid K balls. The botched extra point, and bad snap on another Colts FG could have decided the game. All so there are less touchbacks on kickoffs? Please.

GoDaddy.com paid $6.4 Million to show the same stupid commercial twice...not that I was ever going to visit the site anyway, but now I am boycotting.

Did I miss the memo that everyone was supposed to have talking animals in their commercials?

Football announcers, by and large, are terrible. Merrill Reese should have done the play by play with Harry Kalas assisting.

10,000 pieces of Bears Super Bowl XLI Champions merchandise is shipping out to Africa tomorrow.

The Bears proved that the NFC was absolutely terrible this year.

Rex Grossman will not start more than 5 games for the rest of his career.

Brett Favre is coming back. The Packers were decent this year among a slew of injuries. If they draft all defense, with a few key signings, they have the players to make an impact next season.

The Eagles would have made for a better Super Bowl.

Myers signed through '09

The Phillies today signed Brett Myers through 2009 today with a 3 year/$25.75 Million deal.

First off, after Utley's deal, Gillick returned to old form with only a 3 year deal to a pitcher. This move makes sense for a lot of reasons. Myers was arbitration eligible, and he wasn't happy with the Phils offer. He made $3.3 Mil last season, asked for $5.9 and would probably have received just over $5. So take that away from the total and they are essentially paying him $20 over 2 years, or $10 per. With Adam Eaton averaging $8 per, that's not a bad figure.

The Phillies bought out Myers' last two arbitration years and delayed free agency for one more. The only thing I would have liked to see would have been a club option for a 4th year, even if it included a $1 Mil buyout. That's still a relative low risk, considering Myers is only 26, and should only get better.

Regardless, this move keeps their bulldog happy for the next few years and provides an anchor in the rotation (for stability...not the Jon Leiber kind of anchor). This was the perfect move for Gillick and for the Phillies.

A Dirty Little Word from a Few Years Back...Contraction

In the absense of any real baseball news, I just wanted to touch on a recent issue since forgotten...contraction in baseball.

I'll start by saying that I'm all for it. I think that there are a number of reasons baseball should elinimate teams:

The lack of good pitching available
The imbalance of the leagues
The imbalance of the divisions
Lack of competition and parity

When Selig introduced this idea back around 2001, the talks originally called for the Marlins and the Expos to be purchased by MLB and eventually folded. Somehow, Florida is traded for the Twins in the following discussion. The idea eventually gets rejected, even after the Expos are purchased by MLB and moved to Washington.

I never wanted to fold the Twins. There is way too much history and two World Series Championship teams from Minnesota. I understand the small market concept, but the team has recently managed to compete even with a low budget. I believe the Twins may also be one of the few things keeping Minnesota from defecting to Canada, eh.

I wasn't happy about the Marlins leaving, either. They may not have a lot of support down there, but look at those women. The Florida Marlins Mermaids? Anyway, they also managed to win 2 World Series in their short history, and are on the up and up about to compete again. They are really geniuses when you think about it, the ultimate sell high, buy low strategy. Every GM should be using similar tactics, only not to the extreme where the team goes dormant for 5 years until everyone comes up from the farm. But in order to stay competitive for a long time, you need to trade your aging veterans for high level prospects. It's been the mantra of Andy Reid and the Eagles to continually replace guys in their 30s with younger, cheaper players, except for the important few (Dawkins, Runyan).

I was fine with folding the Expos until they came to DC. This city has embraced this team more than anyone imagined with the Orioles just 45 minutes up 95. They may be a bad team, but they are still rebounding from spending a season playing in 3 different countries. The non-trade of Soriano was a huge mistake, but I think they will come around in a few years.

So who does that leave? How about the Tamba Bay Devil Rays for one. Since they came into the league, they have been a perennial doormat for the AL. They have a bunch of good outfielders and no pitching, nor fans. Plus, apparently the elderly just can't take the summer heat, since neither Florida team draws many fans. Let the state root for one team, and let it be the one with 2 Championships and potential.

My other inclination would be to go with one of the other recent expansion teams, the Rockies or the Diamondbacks. Each team, however, has gained quite a following, and Arizona has a Championship to their credit, while the Mile High Stadium in Denver has created a unique offensive ballpark which has created a nice niche for the team in baseball history. So who else do we turn to? Ah, the Kansas City Royals. The Royals were a semi-recent expansion team, coming into the league in 1968. Other than their 1980 Series loss to our beloveds, they haven't done much for themselves, or the game. Recently, they've been a bad, small market team. Their team salary in 2006 was 47 Million, ranking 26th. Tampa Bay was 29th at 35 Million, though they should have been last since Floridia was playing all rookies, and their 15 Million payroll will come up in the next few years as they add a few veterans to complete their next championship team. KC is also 25th in total franchise value at 239 Million, while Tampa is dead last at 209 Million. The other small market teams are finding ways to compete, while these two teams are just laughing stocks.

So that's my advice to Bud Selig, contract Tampa and KC, then restack the league so you have 14 on each side, either 5, 5, 4 or back to 7 and 7. That way each league will have an equal chance at making the playoffs. Hold a draft for the players in their respective systems, with a major and minor league portion. The worst records over the last 5 years pick first. Expand the rosters and coaching staffs for a year while everything shakes out, and then pick up and move on. The world will be a better place.

One side note: If anyone wondered how Danny Jackson ended up on the 1993 Phils World Series team, the Marlins took him with their 27th pick (the Rockies were also picking, so he was essentially taken 54th) from the Pirates, and then traded him to the Phils for Joel Adamson and Matt Whisenant. Those two combined to go 14-14 over 4 years with ERAs of almost 5. Robert Person went 4 picks earlier to the Fish in that draft. Couple that trade with Kevin Stocker for Bobby Abreu, and the Phils should be rooting for expansion, not contraction.